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February 16th - February 17th Snow/Ice Storm OBS


superjames1992

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Phil, has the SN/IP line been on the move south at all (I forget the link to the correlation coefficient radar)?  I do notice more snow mixing in than I've seen since about 5 PM.  Will that continue?  I know we'll warm up eventually, but in the meantime it would be nice.

 

It has been bobbing around the last couple of hours, but currently its around the boundary of Caswell and Person counties. When your warm nose gets to around 0C, precipitation rate can often fight to maintain the profile isothermal (due to melting snowflakes dynamically cooling the profile). However, WAA typically wins in these battles as precip rates increase.

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=RAX-N0C-1-48#

 

codnexlab.NEXRAD.RAX.N0C.20150217.114.04

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Well as I said earlier, they all were really bad. But the two that came the closest was the gfs (off by about 4 to 5 degrees) and the 4km nam...which did show freezing rain the furthest south. the normal run of the nam, hrrr,  the euro, canadian, rgem, and rap  were all terrible to beyond terrible south of i-85.

 

Lookout,

Further to what you said, here is hour 38 from yesterday's 12Z high resolution wrf/nam effective 9 PM tonight:

 

 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2015/post-25-0-24750900-1424028442.gif

 

 Fantastic prog!!

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Yup, 2002 was awful.  When hardwoods are cracking under the weight of the ice, you know it's bad.  Not gonna wish that on my worst enemy.  Can't believe that was 12-13 years ago!

 

Nothing crazy going on currently. Thin coating of sleet/snow on sidewalks and some roads.  A lull at this time.

Temps down your way have really crashed.

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The interstates have gone to hell. The brine washed off and the rain is sticking directly to them.

 

this is what is happening here the rain is just gonna wash the roads clear then they are going to freeze...... temps holding or even dropping into the mid 20's here with hrs of light steady rain on the way and its falling on surfaces that have been sub freezing for over 40 hrs straight........could be a epic crippling ice storm for a large hunk of NC.

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The interstates have gone to hell. The brine washed off and the rain is sticking directly to them.

 

Was just about to ask about that...it's been since 2002 since I recall a solid freezing rain event and wasn't sure if the roads actually were affected when it's just pure freezing rain.

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Here in Dunwoody, it has been stuck in the 32.0 to 32.1 range for 3 hours (mainly 32.1 lately). So, I feel like we've likely bottomed. If so, we may have dodged a bullet. I can't tell if ice is/has accumulated in the trees, but I didn't notice any in the bushes and on other objects including metal.          

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Fortunately, a lot of what is falling in CLT, and it's falling at a moderate rate, is remaining liquid on the roads/sidewalks for now. However, I doubt that can hold on much longer, unless temps rise significantly. 27 with a wetbulb of 23.4 here.

 

Wonder why it's accum so much more on interstates than sidewalks? Very odd. Obviously, overpasses are a different story.

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