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February 16th - February 17th Snow/Ice Storm OBS


superjames1992

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How bad did models bust on temps? Which one was closest?

Well as I said earlier, they all were really bad. But the two that came the closest was the gfs (off by about 4 to 5 degrees) and the 4km nam...which did show freezing rain the furthest south. the normal run of the nam, hrrr,  the euro, canadian, rgem, and rap  were all terrible to beyond terrible south of i-85.

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From GFS:

AS OF 7 PM...THE ATMOSPHERE REFUSES TO COOPERATE WITH THE FCST. IN

SPITE OF NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TO THE CONTRARY...SFC TEMPS REMAIN BELOW

FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. DEWPTS CONTINUE TO CREEP

UPWARD...BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH. WET BULB EFFECTS WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR

BELOW 32F FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE

GEORGIA WHILE THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO FALL. THAT MEANS ICE WILL

CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE...MORE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. WILL UPGRADE

THE OLD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WARNING. WILL NOT GO ICE STORM

WARNING BECAUSE THE PRECIP KEEPS CHANGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. WILL ALSO EXPAND THIS WARNING TO MOST OF

THE REST OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA BASED ON TEMPS AND RADAR TRENDS...AND

TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORING WARNING.

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The prevalence of sleet in the GSP metro area implies that there is a deeper cold reservoir underneath that warm nose than forecast. That means that areas getting sleet now might actually be in better shape that areas along the southern periphery of the wedge (Anderson, Greenwood, Northeast GA) which are primarily receiving freezing rain. GSPs ice map is an improvement, but is still too far north and west with the ice shield since locations that are progged to get 0.00" ice accretion are currently receiving freezing rain (e.g. Greenwood, which is currently 30F).

 

Take home message, don't be surprised if warnings are extended another county south if these regions don't warm up above freezing soon. 

 

htSHVNZ.png

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I'm really not sure how this melts in the Triangle. Basically the side roads are going to be fully iced over and unlikely to be cleared. Then it's going to maybe max out around 37 tomorrow and then nothing but frozen until the weekend. This has the makings of a week long travel "event".

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Very lucky I'm probably about 5-10 miles south of the freezing rain line here in Conyers. Based on NWS temp readings, Conyers is right at 32 degrees. Phew. I checked outside and didn't feel any ice on my deck, but I'm not sure if that's a good way to check...probably should have checked my car. I did not expect it to get this far south.

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I'm really not sure how this melts in the Triangle. Basically the side roads are going to be fully iced over and unlikely to be cleared. Then it's going to maybe max out around 37 tomorrow and then nothing but frozen until the weekend. This has the makings of a week long travel "event".

 

If it gets much above freezing tomorrow, I'll be surprised.

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Looks like they are a sleet/snow mix per the latest observations. They are right on the mixing line per correlation coefficient from KFCX.

 

Phil, has the SN/IP line been on the move south at all (I forget the link to the correlation coefficient radar)?  I do notice more snow mixing in than I've seen since about 5 PM.  Will that continue?  I know we'll warm up eventually, but in the meantime it would be nice.

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It's getting bad here just outside of Athens. I'm starting to hear limbs falling. We still just have an advisory. Are they sleeping at the NWS?

Certainly is getting that way but don't be surprised. This is a common problem with FFC..they normally ignore us out this way..but to have this much icing and not even an advisory for some counties is absurd..especially when they issue those over virtually nothing in atlanta.

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Since we're currently in "Storm Mode" - and locations have been temporarily removed to save bandwidth, when you say "it's snowing here" or "Power flick here", could you please let us know where 'here' is? Thanks ;)

I can still see locations.

 

Nothing much happening here yet in New Bern. Temp has been bouncing between 29 and 30. Dew point is up to 18.

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The prevalence of sleet in the GSP metro area implies that there is a deeper cold reservoir underneath that warm nose than forecast. That means that areas getting sleet now might actually be in better shape that areas along the southern periphery of the wedge (Anderson, Greenwood, Northeast GA) which are primarily receiving freezing rain. GSPs ice map is an improvement, but is still too far north and west with the ice shield since locations that are progged to get 0.00" ice accretion are currently receiving freezing rain (e.g. Greenwood, which is currently 30F).

 

Take home message, don't be surprised if warnings are extended another county south if these regions don't warm up above freezing soon. 

 

htSHVNZ.png

I know it is not a lot, but temps close to downtown greenville has gone from 27.2 to now 28.1. Still sleeting but if we get around 29 I fear the freezing rain will start again

 

Thanks again for the info

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