Disc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 21z SREF. Can someone say north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 OMG HUGE SHIFT NEW SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The lack of consistency from run to run on the models tells me we still don't know the outcome. It could be north and mix or south and out to sea, or something in between at this point. I think the goalposts will narrow by 0Z tomorrow night. ERS is just playing the odds based on the thread the needle pattern. You'll do well 90% of the time by declaring it will not snow in a thread the needle pattern. However, you will look foolish 10% of the time when the needle is threaded. He's playing the odds, and I can't blame him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That may be the biggest one run shift I've ever seen on the SREFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The lack of consistency from run to run on the models tells me we still don't know the outcome. It could be north and mix or south and out to sea, or something in between at this point. I think the goalposts will narrow by 0Z tomorrow night. I honestly don't see how anybody using models could make a confident forecast on this. Just blend them and hope for the best I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 "snow likely, chance of precip 60%", kinda sounds odd. I believe ERS said that his "day job" forecast is much more hedged than what he posts here. Everything I'm giving here is personal opinion only. Im not a spokesperson from noaa. I'm adding what I think will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I honestly don't see how anybody using models could make a confident forecast on this. Just blend them and hope for the best I suppose absolutely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I honestly don't see how anybody using models could make a confident forecast on this. Just blend them and hope for the best I suppose That huge SREF north shift should give anybody pause from declaring they know what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I wish it well I can't see this if the big boys aren't on board. Too far out for the RGEM, but within 48-60 it's one of the big boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That may be the biggest one run shift I've ever seen on the SREFS Totally baffled. Very interesting to track. I'm interested to see the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I wish it well I can't see this if the big boys aren't on board. I think we get it already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How does this sref run compare to the last run precipitation wise? 025-0.5 in. more precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The mean 15Z SREF (previous iteration) had DCA at about 3.6" of snow. One member had 11 inches. I'm not sure how anyone can write it off, especially more than 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Totally baffled. Very interesting to track. I'm interested to see the individual members. Yeah... wonder if this will make the NAM move north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 HUGE changes coming people. ARW (not the best model but sneak peak) check this out. Not taking it very serious but yeah crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah... wonder if this will male the NAM move north NAM's a guy? j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Do the SREFs usually tell where the GFS may be heading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Do the SREFs usually tell where the GFS may be heading? I thought it was the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Do the SREFs usually tell where the GFS may be heading? NAM is one of the members (I believe), so they may or may not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The SREF plumes tell the story. At 15z, most members had precip starting at around 00z on the 18th, with a handful starting at around 06z on the 17th. That's the difference between putting the energy the first and second wave. Now a lot more start at 06z on the 17th, which is the shift to the first wave we've been seeing all day. If the trend of amping the first wave continues, I think there's a good chance it comes further north. The question is whether we can find the sweet spot where it comes north enough to hit us, but not so far north that we switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 absolutely Agreed. If you are basing your forecast on the models....good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah... wonder if this will make the NAM move north But aren't the 21z SREFs run off 18z data? Or does it include newer data coupled with the 18z stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That huge SREF north shift should give anybody pause from declaring they know what will happen. This changes with each model run. Still no consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Agreed. If you are basing your forecast on the models....good luck there is not one met that does not use models....knowing how to use them, their biases, strengths, weakness, etc., as they are just tools, is the trick/art/expertise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This changes with each model run. Still no consensus That's good because we don't want a consensus that the 18z GFS is a part of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM looks to be every bit north on everything so far and faster through 24Update 27 Yeah its coming north. new solution upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Cannot wait for the 0z gfs. Have a gut feeling it's coming north but that's probably just me wanting snow, although the sref does give us a glimmer of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The 15Z SREF plumes focused on the 2nd wave. The 21Z is focused on the first wave. (only one member seems to hang onto the second wave; the rest go with the first) The mean total snowfall is about the same for both runs, but the 21Z run gives it to us with the first wave. Looks like the EURO was the first model to sniff out the first wave being the important player in all of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sref must just be more amped up with that first shortwave. We'll see it on the Nam soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 HUGE changes coming people. ARW (not the best model but sneak peak) check this out. Not taking it very serious but yeah crazy What on earth is that? Looks like an ice to rain situation. Solutions are out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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