Ji Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 the new GFS performs like the old Gfs and actually seems worse. The old GFS never flipped flopped this much under 4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 ive seen many times where models focus on the first wave(especially gfs) and eventually dampen it and have the 2nd wave become the dominant. Not saying it will happen this time though but its something i have seen yep, that's what I was trying to get at, and what I think we need to hope for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 168 HR GFS has a MECS look to it, ULL around the Lakes heading E to setup nice confluence. We have energy dropping down from the Rockies. Woops wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That may be the widest area of 10% chance I've ever seen them put out Yeah. And I may be the only person in VA not in it since I live in the little sliver in the far NW. I am not feeling this one for us. We are gonna need a more amped vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wait for the ensembles. Hopefully they are better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wait for the ensembles. Hopefully they are better Yeah that always works out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wait for the ensembles. Hopefully they are better GEFS mean is terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GEFS mean is terrible Sounds like it's getting close to Game Over.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 so the Euro improves slightly this afternoon and now the GFS looks putrid. I'm sticking with the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Good support for the lead wave dropping some snow on the euro ens. DC is around 2" mean snowfall for the lead wave. 3" for the overall period. Later in the week looks interesting but wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 so the Euro improves slightly this afternoon and now the GFS looks putrid. I'm sticking with the king. Yeah, it's been really good this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It all changes with tomorrows runs. All the flip flopping...keying on this wave or that..will end. Better or worse. WPC pulled out the poorly sampled/sparse data card. Says some supporting energy is not expected to reach western Canada till Sunday. Bam! Models will all converge on a common solution by 12z, surely by 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 always next year... at this point, hope the EURO's 2-3 inches on the front end turns out right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It all changes with tomorrows runs. All the flip flopping...keying on this wave or that..will end. Better or worse. WPC pulled out the poorly sampled/sparse data card. Says some supporting energy is not expected to reach western Canada till Sunday. Bam! Models will all converge on a common solution by 12z, surely by 0z. The worst part for me is that the 18z ens members went to the toilet. Only two remain with a decent storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It just completely flipped to a different solution than its previous run. There's still no settling on a final forecast. Flipped back to yesterday's 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Earlier in the afternoon I said that the few flakes I got today would be more than this storm would provide. Well, that prediction is looking even more on point now that I'm getting banded this afternoon/evening. This might be my biggest storm of the year so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm sticking with Wes....we won't know for sure probably for another 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm sticking with Wes....we won't know for sure probably for another 24 hours We've known for sure since day 6 ;-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It all changes with tomorrows runs. All the flip flopping...keying on this wave or that..will end. Better or worse. WPC pulled out the poorly sampled/sparse data card. Says some supporting energy is not expected to reach western Canada till Sunday. Bam! Models will all converge on a common solution by 12z, surely by 0z. There was only a minimal chance of this ever happening to begin with. There is just too many factors that have to come together to make this a significant system for the Middle Atlantic. The pattern is not in place to make it happen and with no blocking and energy going north and south it's like threading a needle. I'm pretty confident the models will not shift back...similar to the Feb 2nd event. There will be little jogs north and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18Z RGEM suggests this is far from over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18Z RGEM suggests this is far from over Don't go there buddy. It's okay. Have some champagne. Chocolates. It's ovah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Don't go there buddy. It's okay. Have some champagne. Chocolates. It's ovah. with 48+ hours before start time? far from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 with 48+ hours before start time? far from it. Rooting for you man. Maybe you can squeeze something out up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18Z RGEM suggests this is far from over I wouldn't extrapolate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is a Randy Johnson slider...80kts and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Don't go there buddy. It's okay. Have some champagne. Chocolates. It's ovah. The RGEM has been pretty spot on this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is a Randy Johnson slider...80kts and out. well, don't take this hard, but have you been uninvited from meetings lately or noticing people stopping their conversations when you approach while working at LWX? cause apparently other people at your office believe there's a chance of snow Tuesday and it is likely imby Tuesday night....just sayin' http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?textField1=39.20826702330555&textField2=-76.66082766616307#.VN_xpi6rGRp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 We've known for sure since day 6 ;-). Bait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I wouldn't extrapolate The RGEM usually looks a lot like the first 48 hours of the GGEM, which makes extrapolation pretty easy. I'm not sure why, but I rarely see much divergence between the two. You can often predict the shift in the GGEM by looking at the 06z or 18z RGEM. Right now, it indicates that the 00z GGEM is going to follow everything else and put more energy in the front wave. On the other hand, the GFS and NAM sometimes seem like they're modeling different planets. Is it just that they are completely different models, and there is more similarity between the RGEM and GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 well, don't take this hard, but have you been uninvited from meetings lately or noticing people stopping their conversations when you approach while working at LWX? cause apparently other people at your office believe there's a chance of snow Tuesday and it is likely imby Tuesday night....just sayin' http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?textField1=39.20826702330555&textField2=-76.66082766616307#.VN_xpi6rGRp "snow likely, chance of precip 60%", kinda sounds odd. I believe ERS said that his "day job" forecast is much more hedged than what he posts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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