Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If areas south get WSW snow from this and we fail it's time to give up this hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Having the models focus on the lead wave is killinf us WRT to having a big storm yes they are, I have been saying this all day but I think many are thinking maybe the lead wave can give them some snow and so are ignoring this fact. There is time for this to change. The models do this sometimes, put too much into a lead wave then trend north with the second one that has the upper support. Its going to come down to a phase. I think the northern stream actually looks ok this time, the problem is does the first wave leave enough behind to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 yep, I thought it might do that as I posted still very, very close to something decent for many Yeah its not far off from a GFS solution, and we are talking the NAM wayyy outside of its wheelhouse. Nothing wrong with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hmm, 84 hour NAM isn't quite as bad as I had feared. It's close enough at this range. yeah it is and the precip ain't over at 84 hours based on this sim/rad http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=sim_radar&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150214+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 you know the routine my friend, IF we get there, it's never the easy way around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If areas south get WSW snow from this and we fail it's time to give up this hobby that goes for like 80% of our winters....what the he!! would we do with ourselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Is that a comma shape in sw Georgia on the Sim radar?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Having the lead wave be stronger forcea the baroclinic zone east, thus once the shortwave turns the corner it doesnt have enough time to hit us...this would be a terrible way to lose this storm though people in the SE would like it we just have to hope the models are putting too much into the lead wave right now, if that ends up weaker then the wed system will trend north in future runs. they have done this before and sometimes its an error. Its not over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I've seen worse 700mb RH maps before....even on the 84 hr. NAM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_700_rh_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150214+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 There is too much focus on the models showing too much focus on x wave. Who cares how we get snow, as long as we get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I've seen worse 700mb RH maps before....even on the 84 hr. NAM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_700_rh_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150214+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model We are talking 10s of miles making difference vice 100s. So reason to be optimistic...it looked better than I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah, the NAM isn't as bad as I thought. Plenty of time left. Feel like by 2pm tomorrow (after the euro) we will have a better handle on what is or is not going to happen. Hopefully the 18z gfs starts us off with some good trends tonight. The 18z has acted as a preview for what happens at 0z whether it be good or bad so this next run could be very telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 There is too much focus on the models showing too much focus on x wave. Who cares how we get snow, as long as we get it. +1,000,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 There is too much focus on the models showing too much focus on x wave. Who cares how we get snow, as long as we get it. Yeah at some point I couldn't give 2 s**ts about H5 vorts. Sensible weather happens a bit lower down. Make it snow, whichever wave it is, doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I would like a legit storm. I think PSU is getting too much ****. But, sure, we could still get a few ****in' pity inches I suppose while Raleigh gets buried. Yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Snow isn't just snow no matter what. It's all about the delivery...ie the amount, the temps, the duration. I see where Psu is coming from. A snow shower is nice but if that's all there is Id probably just rather have spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I would like a legit storm. I think PSU is getting too much ****. But, sure, we could still get a few ****in' pity inches I suppose while Raleigh gets buried. Yay. Me too. But I'd rather that than a changeover here while places north and west get buried. Don't know why, but I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I would like a legit storm. I think PSU is getting too much ****. But, sure, we could still get a few ****in' pity inches I suppose while Raleigh gets buried. Yay. If they get 10 and I get 4, so be it. They are probably way overdue anyway. At this point my biggest event is 2.5. 4 or 5 would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I appreciate the analysis because it helps me understand how all of this might play out. we just have to hope the models are putting too much into the lead wave right now, if that ends up weaker then the wed system will trend north in future runs. they have done this before and sometimes its an error. Its not over yet. I think the UKMET / Euro solution is probably more likely at this point, but that's better than a complete whiff. If the lead wave were more amped, I wonder if we could squeeze a few more inches out of it without changing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Me too. But I'd rather that than a changeover here while places north and west get buried. Don't know why, but I do. I would too. I would take a few inches of pure snow over bigger snow that flips to sleet or rain. Not even close. Who cares if NW gets jipped lol. They make out better at least 7 out of 10 events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 There is too much focus on the models showing too much focus on x wave. Who cares how we get snow, as long as we get it. I focus on it because I have seen this setup play out so many times, and the way this can work for us is that second wave phases and we get the famous north trend once models figure that out. The lead wave is a loss for us in this setup 90 percent of the time. Its not about what run shows a nice digital storm but what solution is likely to ACTUALLY give us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 day3_psnow_gt_042-14-15.gif That may be the widest area of 10% chance I've ever seen them put out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 18z GFS appears to be phasing in the Baja Wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 57 -- 1010mb SLP in S AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 ive seen many times where models focus on the first wave(especially gfs) and eventually dampen it and have the 2nd wave become the dominant. Not saying it will happen this time though but its something i have seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 And 18z GFS pulls a Lucy hope the ensembles are better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 About time to give up on more than a couple of inches with luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS is a miss ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 At least the blizzard is going to bust too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It looks like this lead wave is going to be stronger than it looked like yesterday. This is screwing us because it pushes everything East. HOWEVER, there is a sliver of hope... IF we can somehow get the ULL to dive down farther SE (this is in the 84-96 hour range still which gives us some room for changes) we could get a new low to redevelop, kind of what the GGEM did (though ti did it late) That's a shot in the dark though... I don't want to hear people go "BUT OMG ITS 3-4 DAYS OUT, YOU'RE AN IDIOT FOR GIVING UP".....We're hitting the time frame where models get a good grasp of the overall evolution. Today we learned that the lead wave is going to be stronger.... It sucks, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 And 18z GFS pulls a Lucy hope the ensembles are better It just completely flipped to a different solution than its previous run. There's still no settling on a final forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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