HighStakes Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I fullly admit I have some kind of sick problem, but I could not live in DC for the simple reason that I would be totally and completely miserable almost every winter there. They can go several years between 6"+ events and for whatever reason smaller snows just do not excite me. I dont need 30" in a winter to be happy, but I need at least one period of a few days or more when I have enough snow to totally cover the ground. It makes me happy...I dont know why. Small snows leave me feeling disappointed that it wasn't more. If anything I would rather a total miss then another 3" snow because I get my hopes up that perhaps it will turn into more then when it doesnt I am let down. When it just misses totally I accept it and move on. I am NOT justifying my point of view, there is probably something wrong with me, and it sets me up to be unhappy more then I should be over frozen water falling from the sky, but I am honest about it. I wish I could have your view I would be much better off. We've always differed on our opinions on this. I will always take 3 inches over getting shutout. In a bad snow winter like this I get even more desperate for light snowfalls because it seems like it's the only way to get snow as the over 4 inch storm seems impossible. Even in a great winter like last year I still want as much snow as possible and it doesn't matter what form it comes. I guess nothing will change your opinion and I certainly get where you are coming from although I don't totally understand it, but there are many light events that are quite enjoyable. As a side note, since most of your posts are quite informative and many can learn from them others shouldn't get upset with you over your preference of what makes a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM s/w is a bit diggier and stronger at 36 vs 42 hours at 12z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thanks. I think this wave does show up on the H5 maps earlier in the runs (see my other post above). All models seem to be amplifying this wave and pulling it further southwest (towards the Baja low) with recent runs. I wonder what would happen if that trend continues. It might show up on the Euro ensembles. well if it continued that trend enough it could become just one system. That probably would be bad though, if this all came out in one piece it probably would cut and be a big rain. Our best option is a very weak lead wave that pushes the baroclinic zone just far enough southeast to keep the storm track under us, but leaves enough behind to let the second storm bomb out and come up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nam is further north with the precip at hr39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 We've always differed on our opinions on this. I will always take 3 inches over getting shutout. In a bad snow winter like this I get even more desperate for light snowfalls because it seems like it's the only way to get snow as the over 4 inch storm seems impossible. Even in a great winter like last year I still want as much snow as possible and it doesn't matter what form it comes. I guess nothing will change your opinion and I certainly get where you are coming from although I don't totally understand it, but there are many light events that are quite enjoyable. As a side note, since most of your posts are quite informative and many can learn from them others shouldn't get upset with you over your preference of what makes a good event. I agree, I SHOULD see if your way, and I wish I did, I just can't. For me winters like 2008 or 2012 were easier to deal with because it was warm and there was no real chances so I never got my hopes up and just moved on. I found other things to do with my time. Yea they sucked but I accepted it and moved on. This year with constant cold and low level threats to track its much more frustrating when they all miss. Probably why I remember 2006 better then most. It was mostly warm out but the 2 opportunities for a storm in early December and mid Feb both payed off with a storm. I was happy with that year. As for others getting upset with me, I am ok with it and understand why. My posts probably came off as smug or like I am a snow snob to someone that has very little snow on the year. I should have thought about what I was saying and been more sensitive about that. I can empathize with their point of view. It's like if Wed does phase and cut, and we had to hear someone from New England complaining that some of their snowpack is melting. Probably not wise to complain to people doing worse then you about snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 guys, come on. Can we please move on from the snow on the ground debate? I let it go because I thought it was gonna be brief and we were in between models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nam is further north with the precip at hr39 That isnt necessarily good, the NAM at 12z was south with the lead wave and phased the second. A stronger lead wave might hurt the chances for the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 guys, come on. Can we please move on from the snow on the ground debate? I let it go because I thought it was gonna be brief and we were in between models. You are right, sorry, please move my posts to the banter thread if you want to clean this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 for allegedly no blocking, that vort in SE Canada (today's storm) sure doesn't move much on the NAM in hrs. 30-42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM does come north with the front end, but I'm not sure that's a good thing; at hr 48, the Baja low is still just begining to be ejected. I suspect we lose the front end, and the back end misses the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That isnt necessarily good, the NAM at 12z was south with the lead wave and phased the second. A stronger lead wave might hurt the chances for the second.It's doesn't look that much further north..but some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That isnt necessarily good, the NAM at 12z was south with the lead wave and phased the second. A stronger lead wave might hurt the chances for the second. I think you may as well just forget hoping for the no first wave idea everything, at least today, is going that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM misses with the first slug thanks to the vortex in the Canadian Maritimes that won't move thanks to "NO blocking" (sarcasm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 looking at 54 hrs vs. 60 hrs on the 12Z, heights in the east are higher, so I won't be surprised if this run looks similar to 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM looks SE at hour 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 definitely SE of 12Z not this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yup, it looks worse than 12z and it's likely going to miss this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yup, it looks worse than 12z and it's likely going to miss this run. looks like the upper low is a hair late because I think it will get some precip into us at the end of the run, or come real, real close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM misses with the first slug thanks to the vortex in the Canadian Maritimes that won't move thanks to "NO blocking" (sarcasm) This is why i am not at all interested in the first wave, the flow is way to suppressive for that to do much. The h5 trough axis and good and the northern stream actually digs nice for the "second" wave but if there is nothing left behind to phase with its a wasted opportunity. That is what I am fearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Having the models focus on the lead wave is killinf us WRT to having a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 84hr NAM will save us with mood flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 84hr NAM will save us with mood flakes. yep, I thought it might do that as I posted still very, very close to something decent for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I agree with this...but for whatever reason people up here let their grass grow really long...I am not kidding...I get 3" and it doesnt even cover the grass up here. Plus if its dry snow, the wind up here being crazy behind these things just blows it all into piles along the sides of buildings. My grass is very short lol. I just ends up that way from being in the woods I think. But yeah I get what you are saying. I lived south of Westminster for 12 years, so going from a mean of over 30" a year to a tad under 20 took some getting used to. But I know the climo here, and there are certain types of events I score pretty big with. And overall I do better than DC- Annapolis. I get in on the backside of redeveloping Miller Bs where places further inland get screwed. I did decently in the 2010 Boxing day debacle, even tho I was supposed to get a foot, I still managed 5" despite the huge regional bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Having the lead wave be stronger forcea the baroclinic zone east, thus once the shortwave turns the corner it doesnt have enough time to hit us...this would be a terrible way to lose this storm though people in the SE would like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks promising....give it a few more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hmm, 84 hour NAM isn't quite as bad as I had feared. It's close enough at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Having the models focus on the lead wave is killinf us WRT to having a big storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM is going to phase but too late for us to get anything significant, its close though. Problem is, like everything else, it is trending the wrong way. There is still time, I actually like the setup for the second wave more now then I did 48 hours ago when models were first showing a hit but with some weird strung out crap solution. I know at the surface it looks worse but its actually closer to a big storm now at h5 then it was. Its very close to a phase and a good hit and there is time left, hopefully things trend better tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Having the lead wave be stronger forcea the baroclinic zone east, thus once the shortwave turns the corner it doesnt have enough time to hit us...this would be a terrible way to lose this storm though people in the SE would like it I'll take the Euro solution or something along the lines, but we have a decent chance at upside too in light of what has happened to the bulk of these gulf systems this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.