SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 this baby is coming north and DCA/BWI are getting snow, the best of the season, and that's all that counts I hope so, but I don't think so at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Upper low/energy over the Baja, upper jet energy near pac NW. Thanks. So when people are saying that the UKMET and Euro are amplifying the first wave, they're talking about the energy near the pacific NW? It's not clear to me which of those are "first" -- in some runs, it looks like they phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Did 15z SREFs kick out the Baja energy looking at the h5 map? Or am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So what did the euro show exactly, 1-3 2-4ish based on some comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So what did the euro show exactly, 1-3 2-4ish based on some comments? More or less, from what I saw posted and discussed earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow General Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Did 15z SREFs kick out the Baja energy looking at the h5 map? Or am I wrong? Looks like all but 5-6 of the members managed to. Edit: definitely gets kicked out on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Did 15z SREFs kick out the Baja energy looking at the h5 map? Or am I wrong? What do you mean by "kick out"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What do you mean by "kick out"? As in like phase the energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So what did the euro show exactly, 1-3 2-4ish based on some comments? .10 for Westminster maybe a tick better for you. Maybe 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 As in like phase the energy Oh... thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 As in like phase the energy[/quoteIt looks phased to me at 500 map at 87hr. Is that a new development? Sometimes I get confused on what to root for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 .10 for Westminster maybe a tick better for you. Maybe 1-2 inches. Cool, thanks. A step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Cool, thanks. A step in the right direction. No problem. Long way to go still. We probably will see a surprise or 2 before the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Did 15z SREFs kick out the Baja energy looking at the h5 map? Or am I wrong? Yeah, looks like it did on the mean. Though, the QPF field shifted a good bit south and east from 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah, looks like it did on the mean. Though, the QPF field shifted a good bit south and east from 9z.The NAM will be interesting just from the standpoint of seeing where the precip shield goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Sorry to keep on this, but we're between model runs so I hope I'm not bothering anyone. Looking at the maps a little earlier in the run, I think the "first wave" becomes more obvious. Is it the energy near the border of Utah and Wyoming? If so, from what I understand the Euro and UKMET have been transferring more energy to that initial wave, which then races ahead and hits us earlier. The GFS has been squashing that wave and transferring energy to the second wave which hits us later. The difference in timing has a lot to do with the difference in tracks / outcomes. If this is the case, then I think something like the Euro / UKMET solution is more likely. They have the highest verification scores at this range, and over the last three runs it looks like the wave I show above has become a little more amped and started digging a little more SW on the GFS. FWIW, the CMC ensembles are mostly to the east of the control run, which is not great news. But we're in the range in which the op runs are probably a little more useful than the ensembles, and if the CMC op run has the wrong idea then the ensembles likely do as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I was just thinking in terms of not getting shut out that first wave would be fine. I'm ok with a few inches, but it would be difficult to get more than a couple inches from the first wave up here. I know you definitely would prefer the bigger hit in which I definitely agree we need the second wave to amplify for us to have a chance at 6+. I am a bit paranoid that we will have nothing on the ground come midweek when the next arctic shot invades. That is mostly why I would settle for the first wave. to me the difference between nothing and 2-3" is insignificant. Now if I could get 4+ then I am interested. Tired of these snows that do not even cover the grass completely and then blow into piles the next day and leave the ground barren. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 to me the difference between nothing and 2-3" is insignificant. Now if I could get 4+ then I am interested. Tired of these snows that do not even cover the grass completely and then blow into piles the next day and leave the ground barren. Just exactly how many posts do you plan on dedicating to letting us know that a several inch snowfall, or a bigger snowfall that flips is a complete waste of your time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 to me the difference between nothing and 2-3" is insignificant. Now if I could get 4+ then I am interested. Tired of these snows that do not even cover the grass completely and then blow into piles the next day and leave the ground barren.Probably because you are in Manchester...and life is good there for snow...in my neck of the woods 2-3'inches is time for celebration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Could someone please explain how to tell the two waves apart? I've been looking at 500mb and surface maps, but I'm not sure what I should be looking at. Is the first wave that little blip over Arkansas? The reason you can't easily see the lead wave on the h5 is it is mostly a surface feature and is running way out ahead of the h5 trough and energy. That is also why it is limited IMO to how much potential it really has. Its not going to amp up much and probably be more sheared out as it slides east. The second wave has the upper support but if too much energy escapes east with the initial wave at the surface it might not leave anything at the surface for the h5 vort to phase with. That is our problem. The H5 actually looks ok but the models are running away at the surface and leaving nothing for the northern stream to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 All accumulating snow is good. I have been measuring 0.1s and 0.2s this season. A few inches would greatly improve the scenery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 to me the difference between nothing and 2-3" is insignificant. Now if I could get 4+ then I am interested. Tired of these snows that do not even cover the grass completely and then blow into piles the next day and leave the ground barren. 2-3" may not be a whole lot but IMO any accumulating snow will make these Arctic blasts a lot more fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Any snow that's hides the grass and is still there 24 hours later is good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 2-3" may not be a whole lot but IMO any accumulating snow will make these Arctic blasts a lot more fun. Yeah, that's how I feel. I can't stand bare ground with the kind of cold we have coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just exactly how many posts do you plan on dedicating to letting us know that a several inch snowfall, or a bigger snowfall that flips is a complete waste of your time? Probably because you are in Manchester...and life is good there for snow...in my neck of the woods 2-3'inches is time for celebration I fullly admit I have some kind of sick problem, but I could not live in DC for the simple reason that I would be totally and completely miserable almost every winter there. They can go several years between 6"+ events and for whatever reason smaller snows just do not excite me. I dont need 30" in a winter to be happy, but I need at least one period of a few days or more when I have enough snow to totally cover the ground. It makes me happy...I dont know why. Small snows leave me feeling disappointed that it wasn't more. If anything I would rather a total miss then another 3" snow because I get my hopes up that perhaps it will turn into more then when it doesnt I am let down. When it just misses totally I accept it and move on. I am NOT justifying my point of view, there is probably something wrong with me, and it sets me up to be unhappy more then I should be over frozen water falling from the sky, but I am honest about it. I wish I could have your view I would be much better off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm at 36 consecutive days with at least some snow cover at my location. Last year saw 55 consecutive days, hoping to break that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Any snow that's hides the grass and is still there 24 hours later is good snow. I agree with this...but for whatever reason people up here let their grass grow really long...I am not kidding...I get 3" and it doesnt even cover the grass up here. Plus if its dry snow, the wind up here being crazy behind these things just blows it all into piles along the sides of buildings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The reason you can't easily see the lead wave on the h5 is it is mostly a surface feature and is running way out ahead of the h5 trough and energy. That is also why it is limited IMO to how much potential it really has. Its not going to amp up much and probably be more sheared out as it slides east. The second wave has the upper support but if too much energy escapes east with the initial wave at the surface it might not leave anything at the surface for the h5 vort to phase with. That is our problem. The H5 actually looks ok but the models are running away at the surface and leaving nothing for the northern stream to deal with. Thanks. I think this wave does show up on the H5 maps earlier in the runs (see my other post above). All models seem to be amplifying this wave and pulling it further southwest (towards the Baja low) with recent runs. I wonder what would happen if that trend continues. It might show up on the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So the GFS and GGEM focus on the second wave. The UK and Euro on the first. There is more risk with the second, but I have a feeling that IF, and its a big IF, the GFS is correct in the second wave being the main player, that it will trend more amplified and be a hit. But if the Euro and UK are correct that the lead wave is the main player it will trend south and be a miss. I think it runs out ahead of the trough and is running into a suppressive flow. I have no idea which wave is likely to be dominant but thats just my gut at this point. I am rooting for the second. I think models will want to suppress that now but that is the one more likely to trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro ens mean basically supports the OP...though looks like some serious spread in solutions still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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