WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 0z is going to be the last useful run of the globals. I really don't expect many changes at this point. At least not in the dc metro/burbs. Short range guidance takes over in the morning. I expect a freak run of the hrrr tomorrow afternoon destroying us followed by another that cuts totals in half. lol. I think you're correct, but I could see a bump north with precip. Tennessee is interesting to me, probably because my sister lives in Knoxville. The outlook down there certainly has gone downhill in the past couple of days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't think models had precip breaking out this early. Agreed: 18z NAM simulated reflectivity at 4 hours. Ooops. Here's the link anyways: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021518&time=INSTANT&var=REFD&hour=004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't think models had precip breaking out this early. Yeah, the GFS just had a thin band of snow in north missouri and then some precip in tx/la. Hopefully it's a sign of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't think models had precip breaking out this early. I don't think it is. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=cp&expanddiv=hide_bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah, the GFS just had a thin band of snow in north missouri and then some precip in tx/la. Hopefully it's a sign of things to come. Exactly what I was thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't think it is. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=cp&expanddiv=hide_bar I like using the NWS National radar as a snapshot of the conus http://www.weather.gov/Radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 comparing apples to apples, below are links to the 18Z NAM sim/rad for 7PM and then actual radar at 6:58PM a little more precip down south http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=006ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_006_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150215+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Please don't ever compare the 1km simulated reflectivity to an actual CONUS composite radar. Of course the composite is going to show more "precip." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Please don't ever compare the 1km simulated reflectivity to an actual CONUS composite radar. Of course the composite is going to show more "precip." Whoops, good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 comparing apples to apples, below are links to the 18Z NAM sim/rad for 7PM and then actual radar at 6:58PM a little more precip down south http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=006ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_006_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150215+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full.php C'mon Mitch....you're a veteran Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Please don't ever compare the 1km simulated reflectivity to an actual CONUS composite radar. Of course the composite is going to show more "precip." This looks better fwiw http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=eax&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Are there even any full conus base reflectivity images in existence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This looks better fwiw http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=eax&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no That's because that's not a composite... just an individual 88D. And it's still probably going to show more precip, because the 1km simulated reflectivity is just that... a static height of 1km. Actual radar sees reflectivities higher up as you get farther away, which would naturally show more precip than the 1km reflectivity. A better way would be to find a simulated composite reflectivity, like the one the HRRR has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ill be curious to see if these tracks adjust north after the 0Z runs. It seems like the RGEM and Ukie had the low in TN at 0Z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That's because that's not a composite... just an individual 88D. And it's still probably going to show more precip, because the 1km simulated reflectivity is just that... a static height of 1km. Actual radar sees reflectivities higher up as you get farther away, which would naturally show more precip than the 1km reflectivity. A better way would be to find a simulated composite reflectivity, like the one the HRRR has. can you at least agree there is way more precip in LA than the NAM modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think you're correct, but I could see a bump north with precip. Tennessee is interesting to me, probably because my sister lives in Knoxville. The outlook down there certainly has gone downhill in the past couple of days If I lived in TN I would not be happy right now. We could easily see a bump north but as far as my yard goes, .50 give or take a tenth in either direction seems about it. I don't expect less than .40 or more than .60 right now. Duration of meaningful precip won't be more than 12 hours. Expanse to the north is a wildcard but I'll let the northern folks hash that out. I'd be pretty surprised if the DC area ends up with a widespread .75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 00Z runs will bring .5 to md line. Book it. That will cause RIC to really start worrying about sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Just finished catching up on the day's model runs (we were out at a winery near Leesburg). Pretty good agreement for a 0.5" QPF storm for Arl/Alex/DC, with the Euro being the wet outlier. I wouldn't be surprised to see a tick north at 00z but I don't expect any large movements either way. I'd go with 5-7" for Arl/Alex/DC right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Matt is rubbing off on you . Nah, their gain is my gain. Doesn't usually work like that. If I had to guess I would think n md gets .40 in general with some of the ridges doing better. We're all getting snow and by far the best event of the year in both totals and expanse. To think we are only discussing temps as an afterthought is pretty cool. Rare type of storm on many levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nah, their gain is my gain. Doesn't usually work like that. If I had to guess I would think n md gets .40 in general with some of the ridges doing better. We're all getting snow and by far the best event of the year in both totals and expanse. To think we are only discussing temps as an afterthought is pretty cool. Rare type of storm on many levels. Exactly you are in the perfect spot for this one. For one of the first times in a long time a north bump would help you. Enjoy, you sure deserve it after your hundreds of hours of bleeding eyes over the past week. If i get .40 i would be happy, 6" with possibly 7 would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nah, their gain is my gain. Doesn't usually work like that. If I had to guess I would think n md gets .40 in general with some of the ridges doing better. We're all getting snow and by far the best event of the year in both totals and expanse. To think we are only discussing temps as an afterthought is pretty cool. Rare type of storm on many levels. Amen. It's been a rough year; let's enjoy this and have some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 can you at least agree there is way more precip in LA than the NAM modeled? I honestly couldn't give a crap when the event's still 18+ hours out. Unless someone can tell me EXACTLY how the radar now compared to the model forecast is going to have a notable positive/negative impact on our area, it's worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Sorry, was out all day. Can anyone comment on the cold being showed Thursday and especially Friday morning by the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 21z SREFs 24 hr QPF at hr 42 (this image looked the best fwiw) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Sorry, was out all day. Can anyone comment on the cold being showed Thursday and especially Friday morning by the euro? Better post for the mid-long range thread Looks chilly though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 00Z runs will bring .5 to md line. Book it. That will cause RIC to really start worrying about sleet. Uh-huh. And you have actual reasoning to back this up? I mean, I know your gut is what the NWS consults before kicking off the 0z runs, but I was wondering if there was actual science involved in your post or if you were just a dick? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 00Z runs will bring .5 to md line. Book it. That will cause RIC to really start worrying about sleet. You're off to a good start. New SREFs mean has 0.5" along/just north of MD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 21z SREFs 12 hr QPF at hr 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 21z SREFs 24 hr QPF at hr 42 (this image looked the best fwiw) sref_namer_042_precip_p24.gif Nice looks like it bumped even slightly more north than the 15Z Sref. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 SREF plumes give 0.6" to both Frederick and to BWI. Total snow ~ 7 to 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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