SeVa Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This looks like it might be one of those unusual events where both ORF and DC can cash in. Of course we are going to worry about tainting and you guys will worry about QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thank you for the explanation Anytime. The intended user of these products are gov decision makers but They have to be added to the main webpage. They can be useful to anyone if they can understand the intended goal which is to establish a minimum scenario, most likely and max or worst case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Time to throw my hat into the ring... decided to be aggressive with totals: 20150216-17_MAsnow_initial.png itshappening.gif Discussion of concerns/risks, in case anyone cares. Pretty much all of it has already been covered in this thread: http://bit.ly/1Jj6D9U Excellent map like always. It seems very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 didn't the march storm in question last year have an arctic hip pushing against the northern edge? A changeover event with rain early in the cities? Everyone except DCA started as snow.... but it took a ton of time to accumulate. I got 9.5" out of it and I was curious what the liquid totals were, as the ratios may be somewhat similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 didn't the march storm in question last year have an arctic hip pushing against the northern edge? A changeover event with rain early in the cities? 3/3/14 absolutely did. I don't see many comparisons to tomorrow's system. The early March storm saw a fresh delivery of arctic air which pressed down and dried out the upper levels for areas up this way. It was also an incredibly cold airmass for early March. The precip mass literally sunk south of here then put on the breaks south of Baltimore where those areas continued to precipitate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 3/3/14 absolutely did. I don't see many comparisons to tomorrow's system. The early March storm saw a fresh delivery of arctic air which pressed down and dried out the upper levels for areas up this way. It was also an incredibly cold airmass for early March. The precip mass literally sunk south of here then put on the breaks south of Baltimore where those areas continued to precipitate. Definitely not a good comparison. The hp to the n tomorrow is almost low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Definitely not a good comparison. The hp to the n tomorrow is almost low pressure. Yeah, other than a similarly-appearing sharp gradient, the set-up is quite different here than the Mar. 2-3 event last year. Plus, yeah, we started as rain here closer in to DC. If it weren't for that great band near the end, it might have been a bust at least in some areas. I recall LWX being very bullish on that event the night it started. Woke up the early morning of the 3rd and barely had a couple of crusty inches by that point. In the end, I got 5.3" out of it, cold powder for the most part...it was in the low-mid 20s throughout the day of the 3rd, pretty remarkable for March. Someone else mentioned it, but I am curious how this upcoming event compares to the St. Pat's storm last year. That one started right off as snow and never looked back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Time to throw my hat into the ring... decided to be aggressive with totals: 20150216-17_MAsnow_initial.png itshappening.gif Discussion of concerns/risks, in case anyone cares. Pretty much all of it has already been covered in this thread: http://bit.ly/1Jj6D9U Nice map. An area wide 4-8 is just what the doctor ordered for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 4 inches would be a crushing blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 4 inches would be a crushing blow then take nothing like we've had all year and like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Time to throw my hat into the ring... decided to be aggressive with totals: 20150216-17_MAsnow_initial.png. itshappening.gif Discussion of concerns/risks, in case anyone cares. Pretty much all of it has already been covered in this thread: http://bit.ly/1Jj6D9U Now just shift the dark blues over me thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 4" of powder with subfreezing temps all week. I'll take that in a second. Of course, 6" would be better.... This. I think a week or 2 ago when we were all wallowing in self-pity, if we had been offered a sequence of 2-3" "storm", epic cold, 4-6" storm, more epic cold in a span of just a couple days, we'd have taken it in a heartbeat. I know I would have. The fact that there's a chance we might be able to do even better than 6" on this one is just extra icing on a delicious cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This cool product (thanks to whoever posted it earlier) for 18z shows frontogenesis mostly confined to a line running east west between Fredericksburg and Baltimore. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/t18z/frontb.html Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Man, pretty crazy LWX is mentioning 20-1 ratios, I would be absolutely thrilled to be in the 12-15/1 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 FWIW, DT has his first call up and he has DC at 6-10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 DT's call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 FWIW, DT has his first guess up and he has DC at 6-10 inches Yeah just saw it. Reasonable map. First call btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 DT couldn't stay away from the Euro for too long I'd probably hedge a little downward from that and pull the 6" farther south, but it's not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 DT couldn't stay away from the Euro for too long I'd probably hedge a little downward from that and pull the 6" farther south, but it's not terrible. Are you saying you'd keep the 10" line where it is, then, or would you move that south as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 6" is a decent event, we are still going to need 4 more of these to make a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 DT couldn't stay away from the Euro for too long I'd probably hedge a little downward from that and pull the 6" farther south, but it's not terrible. The tn/ky stateline forecast area and south is a tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 6" is a decent event, we are still going to need 4 more of these to make a good winter. Lol. If I get 5", I'll be 4.6" from climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The mannequin Chelsea Ingram on WJZ just called 3-6 from DC to M/D line... 6-12 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18Z ensembles appear to have shifted east a smidge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Don't think this has been posted, but good disco from LWX. Always interesting to see what they're thinking. In part: I don't see any advisories on weather.gov. but it says issuing WSW... Are we under a WSW now or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't see any advisories on weather.gov. but it says issuing WSW... Are we under a WSW now or what? just a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/usa_None_anim.gif Radar looking pretty juicy out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 0z is going to be the last useful run of the globals. I really don't expect many changes at this point. At least not in the dc metro/burbs. Short range guidance takes over in the morning. I expect a freak run of the hrrr tomorrow afternoon destroying us followed by another that cuts totals in half. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 just a watch Thx I see it now... The color of the graphic was overshadowed by the current wind chill warning. I have been out of the loop for a few hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/usa_None_anim.gif Radar looking pretty juicy out west. I don't think models had precip breaking out this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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