ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Useless products. I have a 24% chance of 0". No chance, zero, of 0.1-2", and a 19% chance of 8-12". I have a math degree and couldn't explain those numbers if I had a year to work on it. I don't know why this stuff is posted. What is your location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Useless products. I have a 24% chance of 0". No chance, zero, of 0.1-2", and a 19% chance of 8-12". I have a math degree and couldn't explain those numbers if I had a year to work on it. I don't know why this stuff is posted.Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Here we go again.March last year should have proved we can get fringed up here. Yes it's going to snow but I could see northern Maryland only getting 3-4" while va gets 6-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm really hoping to get 5". With .25"-.3" qpf and ratios maybe we can do it. I think we will definitely get 5". The question is do we get 7 or 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm really hoping to get 5". With .25"-.3" qpf and ratios maybe we can do it.I feel pretty good you'll get 6-8. Models always do this QPF tightening bs before these storms only to jump back at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 March last year should have proved we can get fringed up here. Yes it's going to snow but I could see northern Maryland only getting 3-4" while va gets 6-10 Exactly my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hard to completely keep up with all the models with a teething baby, but am I right that we basically have a consensus of ~0.5" QPF except the euro which is more like 0.7"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hi Resolution NAM still painted 6-8 for portions of Carroll County in the Parr's Ridge area....even with the sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Useless products. I have a 24% chance of 0". No chance, zero, of 0.1-2", and a 19% chance of 8-12". I have a math degree and couldn't explain those numbers if I had a year to work on it. I don't know why this stuff is posted. I can see how it would be a bit confusing. The table is more of a communication tool for DOT's, County level EM's and others deploying resources. All of the numbers are pulled directly from the min/max/most likely and accumulation threshold graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm fairly confident I'm not getting 10:1 ratios. Lol 20-1 is far closer than 10-1, 20-1 was mentioned in latest NWS discussion even if they deemed 15-1 probable versus 20-1 possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 March last year should have proved we can get fringed up here. Yes it's going to snow but I could see northern Maryland only getting 3-4" while va gets 6-10You get fringed badly when dc gets fringed. DC won't get 9 inches and you three. Not happening. You know this dude. Models always struggle with the northern QPF extent around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If you look at the total snowfall forecast from the 18Z GFS, the areas of 6"+ totals moved slightly north (compared to 12Z). Very slight difference. Not sure where the talk about south trends is coming from. Looks to be about the same or slightly north to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hard to completely keep up with all the models with a teething baby, but am I right that we basically have a consensus of ~0.5" QPF except the euro which is more like 0.7"? For you that is correct. I think the JMA may be a drop lower though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I can see a possibility of Northern MD getting fringed. Not every storm is going to work out. We might have to fight dry air and hope High Ratio's can get our 4" with 0.2" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What is your location? It's posted under my screen name. You must be on the phone like me. Frederick co, va....5 miles north of Winchester. In case you're wondering, I was referring to the table posted at the bottom of the page. It says "experimental product". I think it needs more tweaking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just a reminder, what were the QPF's of March 17th last year? Another thing to note about that event is heavy precip verified north of modeled. Models had it south of DC into SoMD but IIRC it verified from IAD across Moco to Severna Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 A little concerned after 18z but I won't start to get real worried unless 0z continues to show such a sharp cutoff. I mean, sure we could still get 4 inches, but I'm hoping to get close to a foot considering the ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If you look at the total snowfall forecast from the 18Z GFS, the areas of 6"+ totals moved slightly north (compared to 12Z). Very slight difference. Not sure where the talk about south trends is coming from. Looks to be about the same or slightly north to me. It seemed like the overnight 0.25-0.50 qpf areas were mostly DC and points S and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I can see how it would be a bit confusing. The table is more of a communication tool for DOT's, County level EM's and others deploying resources. All of the numbers are pulled directly from the min/max/most likely and accumulation threshold graphics. Probably not for this thread, but how can it be reasonable to assess probabilities like that? Maybe we can discuss it later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Time to throw my hat into the ring... decided to be aggressive with totals: itshappening.gifDiscussion of concerns/risks, in case anyone cares. Pretty much all of it has already been covered in this thread: http://bit.ly/1Jj6D9U Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/snowstorm-to-impact-mid-atlantic-and-northeast-monday-night/3901417444001 Nice video by Bernie Rayno on accuweather. Should calm the nerves of the northern MD folks a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Time to throw my hat into the ring... decided to be aggressive with totals: 20150216-17_MAsnow_initial.png itshappening.gif Discussion of concerns/risks, in case anyone cares. Pretty much all of it has already been covered in this thread: http://bit.ly/1Jj6D9U You're about the best at these things...good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You get fringed badly when dc gets fringed. DC won't get 9 inches and you three. Not happening. You know this dude. Models always struggle with the northern QPF extent around here. usually but this year I feel like find the way it could go wrong and that's what will happen. Logically being near the northern edge of good of at 36 hours is perfect. But my gut says don't get excited it will scree you over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 usually but this year I feel like find the way it could go wrong and that's what will happen. Logically being near the northern edge of good of at 36 hours is perfect. But my gut says don't get excited it will scree you over again. It hasn't really snowed yet this year and now its gonna...i don't see how anything that's happened this year can be applied to this event...this is the first of its kind for us this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Time to throw my hat into the ring... decided to be aggressive with totals: 20150216-17_MAsnow_initial.png itshappening.gif Discussion of concerns/risks, in case anyone cares. Pretty much all of it has already been covered in this thread: http://bit.ly/1Jj6D9U I think that's a good forecast. You don't know how good it feels not to be in or near your gray area. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yes and historically when we see such an expanse of precip the heavier bands end up north. The real fringe screw jobs are when DC itself is in the northern edge. Not the case here. Watch PHL; I bet they still end up getting nailed in the end. Text output for everyone north of Baltimore is almost exactly the same as 12Z. Really no cause for concern. Still 24 hours away form snow starting. Like you always say I will roll the dice being up here everytime. If we fall short then so be it. I'm pretty confident there will be accumulating snow for everyone north of the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's posted under my screen name. You must be on the phone like me. Frederick co, va....5 miles north of Winchester. In case you're wondering, I was referring to the table posted at the bottom of the page. It says "experimental product". I think it needs more tweaking... Got it. It's pulling the numbers directly from the products above. Designed to run automatically from the graphics. I would not focus so much on the numbers but the trends...ie...each time they are updated with new data...are the trends for higher amounts going up or down. The product is made with the decision maker in mind. For example, some county governments open an EOC at 4 inches, others 6 or 8 inches. High impact to move heavy equipment is 18 inches for some county seats. They look at the trends in the numbers over a 24-48 hour period to see where our confidence is going. If you were a transportation or EM official in Winchester you would interpret the day as... Highest confidence of 4-8...deploy such and such resource....but there is potential it could be worse...8-12+ if worse scenario pans out. There are other internal coordination going on behind the scenes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 We are still 24-30 hours out. This can still come further north. However, if you look at the 24 hr precip maps from the gfs at 18z Tuesday from the past two runs you'll swear they didn't run the model at 18z. Incredibly consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Got it. It's pulling the numbers directly from the products above. Designed to run automatically from the graphics. I would not focus so much on the numbers but the trends...ie...each time they are updated with new data...are the trends for higher amounts going up or down. The product is made with the decision maker in mind. For example, some county governments open an EOC at 4 inches, others 6 or 8 inches. High impact to move heavy equipment is 18 inches for some county seats. They look at the trends in the numbers are a 24-48 he period to see where our confidence is going. If you were a transportation or EM official in Winchester you would interpret the day as... Highest confidence of 4-8...deploy such and such resource....but there is potential it could be worse...8-12+ if worse scenario pans out. There are other internal coordination a going on behind the scenes. Thank you for the explanation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 didn't the march storm in question last year have an arctic hip pushing against the northern edge? A changeover event with rain early in the cities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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