MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not sure if it's south or north, but it looks a little bit drier than 12z. Those are only 10:1 ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Any sense of what's causing that little nose of diminished totals in central VA? Is that a fluke, or something worth concerning oneself with? Not trying to weenie out over it, but just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thanks folks. Range is tightening. Euro is wettest and furthest north with expanse right now. Would have never thought that possible 24 hours ago, crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thanks folks. Range is tightening. Euro is wettest and furthest north with expanse right now. Yes. It seems like the goal posts of snow accumulation/qpf are tightening. People freaking out over the little pertubations to the south or north. The model will wobble at this juncture. It should be expected. The GFS has 3" up to Allentown for goodness sakes. I think everyone from 40N down to southern MD will be fine with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Today's trend has actually been south a bit, even with the 12z Euro. I am going to assert that in N MD folks shouldn't be pessimistic about the whole sitaution, but it is not 100% with regards to the trends today and that cutoff Baltimore N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It seems every model is a 5-10 event for just about everyone in here. I dont get some of the negative stuff in this thread. I would love 4 inches of powder that I can clear off of the driveway with my leaf blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Any sense of what's causing that little nose of diminished totals in central VA? Is that a fluke, or something worth concerning oneself with? Not trying to weenie out over it, but just curious. When it's showing up on multiple models its a concern. But it does appear like a precip max is appearing over the bay vs. points 50 mi or so west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Today's trend has actually been south a bit, even with the 12z Euro. I am going to assert that in N MD folks shouldn't be pessimistic about the whole sitaution, but it is not 100% with regards to the trends today and that cutoff Baltimore N and W. Only 18Z suite was a slight blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Those are only 10:1 ratios... I know. If you compare with 12z with 10:1 ratios, you'll see that it's a bit drier. This is more obvious on the total qpf map, but Tropical Tidbits has lower color resolution for that map. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015021512&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=227 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yes. It seems like the goal posts of snow accumulation/qpf are tightening. People freaking out over the little pertubations to the south or north. The model will wobble at this juncture. It should be expected. The GFS has 3" up to Allentown for goodness sakes. I think everyone from 40N down to southern MD will be fine with this storm.I would think there will be a pretty sharp northern cutoff given the relatively weak low and plentiful cold/dry air. But if I had to bet one way or another in closing it would be north. And that the Euro is closer in qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I would think there will be a pretty sharp northern cutoff given the relatively weak low and plentiful cold/dry air. But if I had to bet one way or another in closing it would be north. And that the Euro is closer in qpf. That also would be my guess though I must admit I haven't looked as closely as normal because of Comcast problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS is pretty dry. .5" at DCA with .3" at BWI. .2" M/D line south to Baltimore. I should add that 5" of snow at DCA isn't bad, it's actually really good. But it's "dry" compared to 12z and EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Who are these people? Lizardpeople Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS is pretty dry. .5" at DCA with .3" at BWI. .2" M/D line south to Baltimore. I should add that 5" of snow at DCA isn't bad, it's actually really good. But it's "dry" compared to 12z and EURO. I'm fairly confident I'm not getting 10:1 ratios. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That also would be my guess though I must admit I haven't looked as closely as normal because of Comcast problems.At least you are back and ready for the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS is pretty dry. .5" at DCA with .3" at BWI. .2" M/D line south to Baltimore. I should add that 5" of snow at DCA isn't bad, it's actually really good. But it's "dry" compared to 12z and EURO. Even with conservative ratios that is over 7". Either way DC is locked into a very good storm. It is Baltimore and north that has to sweat this a bit if they want the larger totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Tiny tick south of 12zIt's only a minor difference. Problem is it was a south shift at 12z also so that's two straight. Not a big deal yet but not confidence inspiring either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18Z pretty much held for N MD- hopefully we will see some improvement at 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What do you think for snow to liquid ratios? 15:1? I haven't looked closely at the sounding but that sounds reasonable. 11 or 12 to 1 is the average and with it being cold I suspect that 15-1 is reasonable. Still I'd opt for something like 4-8 as a first guess for DC and my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think people are confusing the difference between a sharp cutoff of the heavier precip versus a sharp cutoff of all the precip. Northern Md is not on the fringe of the precip field. Yes, north of Baltimore qpf is considerably however nobody in the northern portion of the forum is in danger of getting shut out. Just about all the models bring accumulating snow well up into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm out at the store and the analysis is whacked. I don't care about track anymore. Just post accurate qpf and move to the next model. The board is not useful for analysis or even correct anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I haven't looked closely at the sounding but that sounds reasonable. 11 or 12 to 1 is the average and with it being cold I suspect that 15-1 is reasonable. Still I'd opt for something like 4-8 as a first guess for DC and my house. Sounds good thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm fairly confident I'm not getting 10:1 ratios. Lol I forgot about that. Looks good for 6-8" for the DC area, maybe 3-5" Baltimore-north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 A bit concerned about the northern extent of heavier bands. The low track is fairly a lock...maybe a wobble or so north or south. Hope the heavier axis shifts north of current GFS progs and that dry air is not a factor at the onset especially I-70 and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think people are confusing the difference between a sharp cutoff of the heavier precip versus a sharp cutoff of all the precip. Northern Md is not on the fringe of the precip field. Yes, north of Baltimore qpf is considerably however nobody in the northern portion of the forum is in danger of getting shut out. Just about all the models bring accumulating snow well up into PA.Yes and historically when we see such an expanse of precip the heavier bands end up north. The real fringe screw jobs are when DC itself is in the northern edge. Not the case here. Watch PHL; I bet they still end up getting nailed in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I am liking these max snow totals given out by NWS...Looks like Maxs may be based of of SREF Useless products. I have a 24% chance of 0". No chance, zero, of 0.1-2", and a 19% chance of 8-12". I have a math degree and couldn't explain those numbers if I had a year to work on it. I don't know why this stuff is posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 1/30/10 gave Philly 6" I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Even with conservative ratios that is over 7". Either way DC is locked into a very good storm. It is Baltimore and north that has to sweat this a bit if they want the larger totals. I'm really hoping to get 5". With .25"-.3" qpf and ratios maybe we can do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I would think there will be a pretty sharp northern cutoff given the relatively weak low and plentiful cold/dry air. But if I had to bet one way or another in closing it would be north. And that the Euro is closer in qpf. I agree Ian. I'm located up in PA for this one and I'll tell you it's amazing how often in these setups people to my north still manage to walk away with more than what I get on this type of setup. Pretty remarkable. If I had to dictate a jackpot area, I like the area from Columbia south to Charles County and to the east onto the eastern shore. That looks to be the area of best frontogentic forcing for the region that can maximize on qpf and lift to acquire the best ratios. I think somewhere will come away with ~12" somewhere in that area. Pretty good storm for you guys down there. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think people are confusing the difference between a sharp cutoff of the heavier precip versus a sharp cutoff of all the precip. Northern Md is not on the fringe of the precip field. Yes, north of Baltimore qpf is considerably however nobody in the northern portion of the forum is in danger of getting shut out. Just about all the models bring accumulating snow well up into PA.Globals tend to broadbrush the edge though. Good chance NAM solution is somewhat wrong but it had a much sharper north edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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