clueless Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 When was the last time the NAM was dead on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 When was the last time the NAM was dead on? Before it was conceived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 When was the last time the NAM was dead on? NAM is still out of range, I think the 0z run tonight will carry more weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 IWM factors in ratios, though. I'd prefer a conservative solution wrt ratios. Anything higher than 15:1 is tough to get around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0.45" would be about identical to the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Before it was conceived. Thanks. We can end NAM talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Decent run. Hopefully RGEM is more north with the heaviest qpf. Little off-topic, but nice new avatar there, Bob! But the western edge of that precip shield is looking kinda anemic! Is that from a particular storm...this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 20:1 ratios? Yes, for this one with temps and what will likely be a jucier, 0.75" qpf storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 New snow maps been give from WPC 4" 8" 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro ensembles clearly west of the OP. Looks like they are all clustered barely off OC and then heading up toward the Cape. I'm guessing that gets us into better banding FWIW. Hopefully the NAM comes around tonight. I'm a Euro fan but it has been far from perfect this winter. It's showed the monster storms but has been too amped up with some of them, showing snow further west into NE, NJ, and NY than we end up seeing, and it also has shown more snow than Boston has received in some of the storms too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 We haven't been NAMed yet. It is inevitable. It will happen at 0z. It will juice up and expand the heavy stuff NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Little off-topic, but nice new avatar there, Bob! But the western edge of that precip shield is looking kinda anemic! Is that from a particular storm...this one? There's already 4" on the ground from the previous panel. 12z euro. lol. With the euro having the .20 contour all the way in the northern PA, I'm really not worried about the nam being a good bit drier. We have some good guidance on our side and the lead is pretty short. I'd say 4-6" for dc metro is pretty locked with possible upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 New snow maps been give from WPC 4" 2-15-15afternoonsnow4in.gif 8" 2-15-15afternoonsnow8in.gif 12" 2-15-15afternoonsnow12in.gif That last map surprises me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That last map surprises me That is the bullseye for the storm as of now. Uncertainty regarding ratios I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like Mr PV (or his daughter) is a comin after this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That last map surprises me Only a 10% chance though. I'd say that's not super bullish given that it's marked as such a low prob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 New snow maps been give from WPC 4" 2-15-15afternoonsnow4in.gif 8" 2-15-15afternoonsnow8in.gif 12" 2-15-15afternoonsnow12in.gif Wow, that's pretty bullish for them! I would never have even expected there to be even a "low" probability of 12" here...let alone moderate probability for 8"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I would figure 4-8 from the current spread in qpf at normal ratios (10-12). Figure 6-10 if north trends continue or high ratios, and 8-12 if both happen, so I can see why it's possible even if a low likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 There's already 4" on the ground from the previous panel. 12z euro. lol. With the euro having the .20 contour all the way in the northern PA, I'm really not worried about the nam being a good bit drier. We have some good guidance on our side and the lead is pretty short. I'd say 4-6" for dc metro is pretty locked with possible upside. I wouldn't worry though the NAM usually models edges well comparatively .. If it's right at this pt which I wouldn't bet on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Went from 1-2 inches to this AHAHAHAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 There's already 4" on the ground from the previous panel. 12z euro. lol. With the euro having the .20 contour all the way in the northern PA, I'm really not worried about the nam being a good bit drier. We have some good guidance on our side and the lead is pretty short. I'd say 4-6" for dc metro is pretty locked with possible upside. Agree. I was just ribbin' you a bit with the new pic you have now! So it's from the 12Z Euro...secret's out! I think a good, solid moderate event should be on tap for everyone, and as you say, possibility of an upside here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Went from 1-2 inches to this AHAHAHAHAt least storms where numbers rise all the way through the end are fondly remembered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The argument can be made that the NAM may still be too far south with it's Low trajectory by the 1024 H sitting off the south east coast. Not only should that feature act to push thugs farther north, it will aid in the dynamics of systems at the surface (deeper low further north west). UKMET, EURO & EURO ensembles seem to be picking up on this which could be the reason for the further north precip sheild. Haven't seen the RGEM since 18z yesterday but I thought it picked up on this very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 For those interested, here is what the RPM is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 For those interested, here is what the RPM is showing. Looks remarkably similar to what LWX has on their map if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo5252 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Finally, looks like SOMD is going to cash in if these model runs actually pan out. Please snow gods make this happen and let us get a thumping. My question, does the really cold temperatures effect the snowflakes in a way that it would take more snow to add up to an inch as opposed to warmer temps and the snow flakes being big and heavy and wet and piling up quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z RGEM at 24 has 1009mb SLP in W MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Was away all morning and come back to a real storm on the models. Looks like a legit 4-10 for everyone. Good times are coming tomorrow night. I have to say the SREFS and especially the Ukie really locked onto the northern solution and didnt let it go. May have to pay more attention to the Ukie from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro ensembles clearly west of the OP. Looks like they are all clustered barely off OC and then heading up toward the Cape. I'm guessing that gets us into better banding FWIW. Hopefully the NAM comes around tonight. I'm a Euro fan but it has been far from perfect this winter. It's showed the monster storms but has been too amped up with some of them, showing snow further west into NE, NJ, and NY than we end up seeing, and it also has shown more snow than Boston has received in some of the storms too. Everything trending to the further west solution and up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Finally, looks like SOMD is going to cash in if these model runs actually pan out. Please snow gods make this happen and let us get a thumping. My question, does the really cold temperatures effect the snowflakes in a way that it would take more snow to add up to an inch as opposed to warmer temps and the snow flakes being big and heavy and wet and piling up quicker. I dont know how technical you want to get. Or how much you want to learn. But this should help. https://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/publist/rpp5_4_R03.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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