WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't recall any model run showing 12"+ in TN/KY from this, but maybe I just wasn't paying attention? This seems like a somewhat different solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Is this a likely scenario though? I thought there was talk of the likelihood that we would eventually end up with a consolidated storm. I think anything is likely at this point. Be interesting to see NAM at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I remember your comments from last year. You don't even forecast operationally in that region. The sampling of obs is poor in the SW. It does make a difference! All that dude does is trash people and snipe. Never seen a forecast from him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't recall any model run showing 12"+ in TN/KY from this, but maybe I just wasn't paying attention? This seems like a somewhat different solution? Yes, when I saw that heavy stuff so far NW I was surprised it missed us almost entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I hope you're not inferring that I don't know how to read a model. Haven't even seen the euro firsthand. Just stating the snow map differs in representing what you're stating. I know you can...in general (maybe not you) there are always a few people who imply I am not interpreting the model correctly because it gives them less snow than they want. As if it is my fault that the euro is spitting out what it is spitting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Please post then. We're not supposed to...I may sneak a panel in here or there, but generally is isn't kosher to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 All that dude does is trash people and snipe. Never seen a forecast from him. He doesn't forecast. Works at a national center and is pretty new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'll do some general PBP on the "HECS" in the other thread if people wanna stick around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 probably 4" on this run verbatim i doubt it, but I honestly am not skilled enough to say one way or the other. I do doubt that it has locked into a final solution in terms of details. Thank zwyts! Will be interesting to see how this all finally unfolds.......many more sleepless nghts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I remember your comments from last year. You don't even forecast operationally in that region. The sampling of obs is poor in the SW. It does make a difference! I don't forecast anywhere -- but i do have a great deal of background in nwp, DA and observational impact -- your analysis was relevant at one time but things are much different these days -- if you want to go through this offline, send me a message and we'll hash it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Text output on the euro was 3" for dca. 4.4" for ezf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's not BS. I assure you. For those mets that have operational forecast experience in those regions and not at a national center can tell you about upper cutoff lows and the sparcity of observations in those areas. Models do not handle it well.You're talking about a very specific event (cutoffs in a very specific area). So I'm inclined to trust you. I think most of this "has it been sampled yet?" backlash should be directed at the weenieish folks who make blanket statements after looking to see if surface moisture is still over the pacific(anywhere up and down the coast). Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wellnow, that was a rather unexpected twist! Maybe not totally unexpected I suppose. Kind of Ukie-like as a couple of other said, with the earlier stuff. A bit hard to know exactly what to make of it, but does look and sound more encouraging. At least for a decent light event, 1-3" or 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't forecast anywhere -- but i do have a great deal of background in nwp, DA and observational impact -- your analysis was relevant at one time but things are much different these days -- if you want to go through this offline, send me a message and we'll hash it out. Even better why don't we hash it out in person. See if you come at me with the same vigor then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This run looks similar to some of GFS 's earlier in the week when we first started tracking this threat. If you recall there were several runs that showed a few inches of cold powder from the initial slug of moisture. I was hoping all along the models would key on this feature and bring it far enough north. Hopefully this will continue with future runs. Last night's Euro was actually pretty close to what today is showing. Not sure how juiced and further north this can get. I don't think the front runner is the wave we want, its out ahead of the upper level energy. That is why its flat and slides east. There is a real limit to how amped that can get. The second wave has more potential to be a big storm if it were to come out and phase. The worst case scenario is a total split where both waves are weak and squashed. The trend today is away from the second wave and that is a step away from a big snow for our area. ETA: the first wave has potential, more so for DCA south, and if you are happy with a few inches definitely, but if you are hunting for a 6" plus event and are north of DC the second wave is what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Even better why don't we hash it out in person. See if you come at me with the same vigor then! dude i was trying to be nice -- we've talked about sampling issues a lot here over the past few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Another big shift on the Euro I'm assuming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Let's all step back, take a breath and chill for a second. And then refocus on the storm potential. Banter/duel challenges can go in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Let's all step back, take a breath and chill for a second. And then refocus on the storm potential. Banter/duel challenges can go in the banter thread. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't think the front runner is the wave we want, its out ahead of the upper level energy. That is why its flat and slides east. There is a real limit to how amped that can get. The second wave has more potential to be a big storm if it were to come out and phase. The worst case scenario is a total split where both waves are weak and squashed. The trend today is away from the second wave and that is a step away from a big snow for our area. ETA: the first wave has potential, more so for DCA south, and if you are happy with a few inches definitely, but if you are hunting for a 6" plus event and are north of DC the second wave is what you want. Could someone please explain how to tell the two waves apart? I've been looking at 500mb and surface maps, but I'm not sure what I should be looking at. Is the first wave that little blip over Arkansas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Let's all step back, take a breath and chill for a second. And then refocus on the storm potential. Banter/duel challenges can go in the banter thread. Do we have a smiley that's like a gauntlet being thrown down for that? Sorry, that's banter I know, but couldn't resist tossing it in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't think the front runner is the wave we want, its out ahead of the upper level energy. That is why its flat and slides east. There is a real limit to how amped that can get. The second wave has more potential to be a big storm if it were to come out and phase. The worst case scenario is a total split where both waves are weak and squashed. The trend today is away from the second wave and that is a step away from a big snow for our area. ETA: the first wave has potential, more so for DCA south, and if you are happy with a few inches definitely, but if you are hunting for a 6" plus event and are north of DC the second wave is what you want. I was just thinking in terms of not getting shut out that first wave would be fine. I'm ok with a few inches, but it would be difficult to get more than a couple inches from the first wave up here. I know you definitely would prefer the bigger hit in which I definitely agree we need the second wave to amplify for us to have a chance at 6+. I am a bit paranoid that we will have nothing on the ground come midweek when the next arctic shot invades. That is mostly why I would settle for the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z Euro run just tells us that we're still far from a final solution, and that's it Gotta love the red tag fisticuffs! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 dude i was trying to be nice -- we've talked about sampling issues a lot here over the past few years You tend to make snarky comments at people when on here. We did speak offline last year. I respect your experience but it is at a national center and not in a field office where the forecasts are made 24/07. The models do not handle upper cutoff lows over the Baja too well. I know many mets that deal with this. Yes we have made improvements over the years but true obs, raobs are stil important. If they were not then we wouldn't be doing them. NWP is not a perfect science and even the new networks that sample them are prone to errors as well. There is no perfect solution. Don't come off as... I'm a dinosaur in the field because I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Text output on the euro was 3" for dca. 4.4" for ezf. Could you imagine what it would be like in here if the gfs held... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z Euro run just tells us that we're still far from a final solution, and that's it Gotta love the red tag fisticuffs! Lol My guess is it was a fluke, I don't think the ensembles will agree with it one bit. The PV/confluence all looked stronger, everything argued for this to be further south than even the previous run. It seems to me the Euro overamps the disturbance in the Plains between 36 and 48 by osmosis, looks very suspicious to me, once it did that everything 180'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Could someone please explain how to tell the two waves apart? I've been looking at 500mb and surface maps, but I'm not sure what I should be looking at. Is the first wave that little blip over Arkansas? Upper low/energy over the Baja, upper jet energy near pac NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The sampling topic is one that has interested me for years, and I have made it a point to privately discuss the topic with as many pro mets/forecasters as possible. It is definitely something that is debated among the pros. From my conversations, I think a slight majority of forecasters do believe there is at least a slight benefit to "better sampling", and that there are specific areas of origin that benefit from this more than others. And the SW/Baja region for this storm was definitely one of the areas that has been mentioned by other pro mets as being one of those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 this baby is coming north and DCA/BWI are getting snow, the best of the season, and that's all that counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The sampling topic is one that has interested me for years, and I have made it a point to privately discuss the topic with as many pro mets/forecasters as possible. It is definitely something that is debated among the pros. From my conversations, I think a slight majority of forecasters do believe there is at least a slight benefit to "better sampling", and that there are specific areas of origin that benefit from this more than others. And the SW/Baja region for this storm was definitely one of the areas that has been mentioned by other pro mets as being one of those areas. +1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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