CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Banding potential from Hi Res NAM...I figured since everyone is analyzing the SREFs, why not? Btw this tool worked pretty well last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishStorm Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Fwiw Bernie Rayno seems to think this will come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Fwiw Bernie Rayno seems to think this will come north the only thing that counts is if you think we get lucky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Fwiw Bernie Rayno seems to think this will come north Who is Bernie Rayno? And why should I care what he thinks. Let me guess..he is from NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 A little weaker, but north on 18Z NAM out to hr 20 eta: hr 21 track looks more like 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Early in the run, but the 500mb looks like the NAM is going to come north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Who is Bernie Rayno? And why should I care what he thinks. Let me guess..he is from NY. No he is from Accuwx and he is actually pretty good. He usually never hypes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Comparing the QPF in MO from 18z hr 18 to 12z hr 24... looks like a nudge north is comng on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Banding potential from Hi Res NAM...I figured since everyone is analyzing the SREFs, why not? Btw this tool worked pretty well last winter. frontb46.png Link? I would like to book mark it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 No he is from Accuwx and he is actually pretty good. He usually never hypes. Oh so he is in State College. North And it has come north, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Word of caution with the SREF plumes: they use a formula to calculate snow-to-liquid ratios that ends up VERY generous in "cold" events. We're going to get good ratios for sure with this event, but the snow plumes will likely look way too healthy. I prefer to look at the QPF plumes and apply my own ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 this run is definitely better, exactly how much will be known shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link? I would like to book mark it. Its an experimental product from FSU based off the 12 km NAM.... http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Word of caution with the SREF plumes: they use a formula to calculate snow-to-liquid ratios that ends up VERY generous in "cold" events. We're going to get good ratios for sure with this event, but the snow plumes will likely look way too healthy. I prefer to look at the QPF plumes and apply my own ratio. Thanks. What ratios do you think would be appropriate for this storm?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Poor TN weenies (if there are any) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Poor TN weenies (if there are any) ImageUploadedByTapatalk1424030769.264035.jpg Its like our promising superclipper that moved north 72 hours before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 FWIW- euro ens mean precip has the .60 line running from IAD to Annapolis. .50 line runs MRB to Aberdeen. .40 goes N of the M/D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 No he is from Accuwx and he is actually pretty good. He usually never hypes. He's good. And I would expect he's right, the north trend will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Little earlier, accumulations by 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 FWIW- euro ens mean precip has the .60 line running from IAD to Annapolis. .50 line runs MRB to Aberdeen. .40 goes N of the M/D Nice... thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Little earlier, accumulations by 4pm. I was just going to post that. Start time probably around 2-3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 470 users for the Nam, damn are we desperate for a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm a huge Bernie Rayno fan. He does not hype at all. Lays all the players out on the field and shows you why certain things could happen/should happen. Love the way he breaks it down. He also doesn't put a lot of focus on models, which is something any of us can really do. He focuses more on the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 d-slt visible with more consolidated precip, but still should be doable http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021518&time=1&var=APCPI&hour=035 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Off the IWM map, DCA ~5" by 1 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 LWX watches are up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 WSW issued by LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Odd the NAM is the driest model. Opposite of the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Odd the NAM is the driest model. Opposite of the norm. Still running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC312 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-VAZ030-040-051>057-501-502-506-160415-/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0003.150216T2300Z-150217T1700Z//O.EXT.KLWX.WC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-150216T1500Z/DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-WARREN-RAPPAHANNOCK-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-EASTERN LOUDOUN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...BALTIMORE...DUNDALK...CATONSVILLE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...ROCKVILLE...COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...ABERDEEN...FRONT ROYAL...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON...LEESBURG...ASHBURN312 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY......WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHTUESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAYEVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES.* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUETHROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHTAND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.* WIND CHILL...5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.* TEMPERATURES...SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20SMONDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAYMORNING.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THISEVENING...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOMINGSOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURESWILL CONTINUE TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THAT CAN QUICKLYCAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND FROST BITE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED ANDSLIPPERY WITH VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE ORLESS AT TIMES. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOWVISIBILITY WILL MAKE TRAVELLING DANGEROUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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