ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Why hasn't NWS Baltimore/Washington put up a watch yet? It is clear to a 5 year old that many places will get more than 5 inches of snow in a 12 hour period! Chill dude. Their new packages come out around 3:30 it will be up then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Why hasn't NWS Baltimore/Washington put up a watch yet? It is clear to a 5 year old that many places will get more than 5 inches of snow in a 12 hour period! This has been covered quite bit in previous pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Are you talking about the Sref?. Yes... i edited my post above with the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 looks like RIC is gonna finally get one! That would be great for them...it's been a drought of sorts for many winters. Having worked at AKQ for several years, it's been my experience that even when the QPF was there...and we were cold enough (i.e. entire sounding below 0C)...there was still something missing that lead to higher amounts north of I-64. I think of the Jan 30 (31st) 2010 case -- the powdery 6" event up here in the DC area before snowmageddon. Granted, central VA made out well in that event, but it still seemed like the higher amounts were north of RIC, even though the QPF wasn't as high. It really comes down to those ratios (thus snowfall rates)...the soundings...again while entirely below 0C throughout the column, are not as optimal as (say) EZF and points north -- in terms of that deep moisture/lift within the -10 to -15C layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yes... i edited my post above with the map Thanks i see it now. It looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yes... i edited my post above with the map that's an awfully nice sref map there my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 15z SREF is even more amped then before. suspect 18z models come even more NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 15z SREF is even more amped then before. suspect 18z models come even more NW Looks in line with the last two, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 15z SREF is even more amped then before. suspect 18z models come even more NW yeah, I feel like I live in NE; all year the sref's kept bumping them up as the event neared until they reached and often surpassed the 1" mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks in line with the last two, IMO much better up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 much better up this way Yes, the northern extent is a bit further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yes, the northern extent is a bit further north. I'll just pretend you weren't just thinking about yourself with the first post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 As much as I'd love to hug the Euro / Ukie, it's hard to ignore the NAM / GFS / RGEM / GGEM. As of the 00z runs, I'm guessing about 4-6" IMBY. I'm hoping Boston remembers to turn on their snow magnet and bring back something like the 00z Ukie run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yes, the northern extent is a bit further north. You can tell by the 500 panels that it ticked north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 As much as I'd love to hug the Euro / Ukie, it's hard to ignore the NAM / GFS / RGEM / GGEM. As of the 00z runs, I'm guessing about 4-6" IMBY. I'm hoping Boston remembers to turn on their snow magnet and bring back something like the 00z Ukie run. That is without ratios. I am confident unless a major shift happens at the last minute you will get 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'll just pretend you weren't just thinking about yourself with the first post Actually I just took a quick look at Va. It actually is a tad drier in se Va if I can remember the 9z. There was a 1" circle down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That is without ratios. I am confident unless a major shift happens at the last minute you will get 6"+. I assumed about 15:1 ratios with that estimate. It looks like the Euro and Ukie have me at (or slightly above) 0.5". Everything else has me under 0.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The SREF plumes give BWI 7.5" and this was from the 09Z run. Good times seem to be a'comin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 qpf is on the lighter side, but this is the first time this year the JMA has depicted a synoptic snow event for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 As much as I'd love to hug the Euro / Ukie, it's hard to ignore the NAM / GFS / RGEM / GGEM. As of the 00z runs, I'm guessing about 4-6" IMBY. I'm hoping Boston remembers to turn on their snow magnet and bring back something like the 00z Ukie run. If history is any indication, Sterling NWS is about to hug the Ukie/Euro combo. The HPC likes it and I assume NWS will too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z NAVGEM was a hit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Can you please just give total map. Not hourly? Thanks. Your not interested in seeing which time frame the heavier snow will fall? I know one of the things I like with this hobby is to try and understand the timing of the storm.... Like what falls during specific time frames. Aren't you interested I that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 FYI, Eric Horst is a very good met from southern PA who tends to be conservative and never hypes... he's thinking 5" along the M/D line. I highly doubt the northern crowd gets skunked like what the GGEM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 15Z SREF plumes are pretty sick. Almost 9 inches at APG. 10 for DCA. They have been going up all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 FYI, Eric Horst is a very good met from southern PA who tends to be conservative and never hypes... he's thinking 5" along the M/D line. I highly doubt the northern crowd gets skunked like what the GGEM shows. Do you have a link to his map, i lost my link to his posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Do you have a link to his map, i lost my link to his posts. http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/SWD-latest.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Do you have a link to his map, i lost my link to his posts. You can follow him on Twitter: @MUWeather or read his disco: http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thank you Sergey Brin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You can follow him on Twitter: @MUWeather or read his disco: http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/ Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 OK, I'll be the first to post one RAP 18 HRS from 18Z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=018ℑ=data%2Frap%2F18%2Frap_namer_018_precip_p01.gif&model=rap&area=namer¶m=precip_p01&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150215+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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