HighStakes Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not really. We'll know more tomorrow of course. These types of storms almost always have a max stripe with mesocale banding. Suface flow goes se-e-ne through the event. Orographic ehancement possible in the usual areas. Trying to come up with an analog but I just can't think of many late winter events this cold. Some might remember 2/22/2001. Cold event but not as cold as this one looks. It was a quick hitter with a similar look of the low placement. Most of the region got 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Trying to come up with an analog but I just can't think of many late winter events this cold. Some might remember 2/22/2001. Cold event but not as cold as this one looks. It was a quick hitter with a similar look of the low placement. Most of the region got 3-6. Any from last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Now we need Wes here to bring it home. Where is he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Storms of this origin, besides being inherently good for DC, are usually juicier. If it's in the low 20's and we get near 0.75 qpf somebody is getting 15". 20:1 SR's seem a bit high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Off topic for this thread, but check out the ensemble cold for the entire period: 2015021500_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png SLC is like +14 this Mo and Monterey Bay is warmest ever. Patterns are so fooked lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Trying to come up with an analog but I just can't think of many late winter events this cold. Some might remember 2/22/2001. Cold event but not as cold as this one looks. It was a quick hitter with a similar look of the low placement. Most of the region got 3-6. The fact that this is "late winter" is washed out by the relentless cold and the robust West Coast ridge. 1987 had back to back cold snows but this was a month earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 new post in banter thread. enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 tomorrow night is gonna be FUN (i hope). Looking forward to a night of obs posting. Obs thread is going to max out in like 10 minutes. I like the start time before daylight is gone. I always love taking a walk during first flakes of any storm. Watching radar tomorrow is going to be a unanimous obsession all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feb11th1983 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 looks like RIC is gonna finally get one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Obs thread is going to max out in like 10 minutes. I like the start time before daylight is gone. I always love taking a walk during first flakes of any storm. Watching radar tomorrow is going to be a unanimous obsession all day. It's perfect. Late afternoon so no initial sun-angle concerns, but early enough that we get a whole lot of viewing time even for those that will eventually sleep (lol). I love watching snow at night, and it's like Christmas morning when after you finally fall asleep you jump out of bed and run to the nearest window to see what you've got. And to know that it'll be on the ground all week is AWESOME. This is my kind of storm (I hope). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Obs thread is going to max out in like 10 minutes. I like the start time before daylight is gone. I always love taking a walk during first flakes of any storm. Watching radar tomorrow is going to be a unanimous obsession all day. Bob, will this be a windy storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The fact that this is "late winter" is washed out by the relentless cold and the robust West Coast ridge. 1987 had back to back cold snows but this was a month earlier. I am not of the belief that it's late. 1/15-2/15 is still prime time, 2/17 barely outside of that. The sun is gaining momentum rapidly but it's gain really does not take over and dominate until 3/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 20:1 SR's seem a bit high It would be for about all other circumstances except this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 CWG says 4-8". Sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 new post in banter thread. enjoy. All good, you are an asset here. I don't know enough about model biases to be confident that the EURO is done and finished vacillating. It its favor, the other models have been trending towards bringing moisture into the Mid-Atlantic and even up into southern PA. I think everyone here strongly hopes the EURO doesn't crash and burn. How many more model runs, if any, before NWS forecasters feel confident that NVA/DC/CMD are locked into something plow-able throughout the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 New HPC Model Discussion out: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Looks like they're blending the UKMET and the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Bob, will this be a windy storm? Nope. Not much of a gradient. If we had a big high up north it would be as winds veer ne. This will be a pretty calm storm from what I'm seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I am not of the belief that it's late. 1/15-2/15 is still prime time, 2/17 barely outside of that. The sun is gaining momentum rapidly but it's gain really does not take over and dominate until 3/7. The Canadians call for persistent cold through the first few days of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nope. Not much of a gradient. If we had a big high up north it would be as winds veer ne. This will be a pretty calm storm from what I'm seeing Which will also assist with snow ratios as well which a lot of people tend to forget when forecasting big ratios despite blizzard-like conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The Mid-Atlantic sub-forum is rocking today. Thanks, folks. Open up the link below!!! Good stuff, lot of us may cash in on dendrite muthaload. This PPT: gives the goodies and not at all difficult to understand. At 850 mb, -15 is cotton candy dendrite muthaload time. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCYQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.erh.noaa.gov%2Fctp%2FHISA%2FSnowMicroPhysics.ppt&ei=QeXgVNKvF4qmNv_XgPgJ&usg=AFQjCNFvHYoCo033SdmQS8dB_rIcrbQYkA&sig2=Bv3fO36uAE0buokxjpwslA&bvm=bv.85970519,d.eXY Ha yeah thats one I read a while back. It is quite good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Can someone give Euro start times? Sorry if I missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Can someone give Euro start times? Sorry if I missed it. Around 5 in DC so i would assume a little bit earlier by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It would be nice if we could get this thing to stay a bit closer to the coast and turn up the coast, possibly slowing it down some as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nope. Not much of a gradient. If we had a big high up north it would be as winds veer ne. This will be a pretty calm storm from what I'm seeing I didn't think so but I am wondering if it were to bomb out a little earlier if it might wind up a little tighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Per 15z SREFs, and looking at the 24 hr QPF map at hr 48... the 0.5 QPF line runs the M/D lne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Why hasn't NWS Baltimore/Washington put up a watch yet? It is clear to a 5 year old that many places will get more than 5 inches of snow in a 12 hour period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Around 5 in DC so i would assume a little bit earlier by you. Thanks...didn't the other models have it earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 24 hr QPF... 0.5 QPF line runs the M/D lne Are you talking about the Sref?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Why hasn't NWS Baltimore/Washington put up a watch yet? It is clear to a 5 year old that many places will get more than 5 inches of snow in a 12 hour period! Patience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Why hasn't NWS Baltimore/Washington put up a watch yet? It is clear to a 5 year old that many places will get more than 5 inches of snow in a 12 hour period! Chill dude. Their new packages come out around 3:30 it will be up then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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