Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Some folks are going to measure double digits tues am.Easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wes always talks about good dendrite formation. Can any of you that understand, post a model sounding so we can see about getting into the cotton candy? Its gonna snow dude lol. If you want to learn about dendritic snow growth, Google.. snow microphysics. Its a bit complex but interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 hmmmm, might signal further north shift to come?Don't get greedy Mitch . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LJZ5ArmANJQ/TRPKWIgi5JI/AAAAAAAABbo/wWvJWqSV8xE/s400/snowratio.png I have found this chart very useful. Looks like we would be close to the best ratios. Thanks. What are the particulars, though? By source temperature, are they referring to 850 mb, 800 mb, 700 mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Some folks are going to measure double digits tues am. In Tennessee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Your area seems solid for a good snow. Congrats. Actual amounts will depend as usual on a lot of mesoscale factors as I was made aware of with this last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 In Tennessee Have you not seen the precip maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 In TennesseeWouldn't be surprised to see precip max fill in east of Apps. Right now this feels like it might stripe someone with 12-15 or so.. Models are actually pretty wet already and may tick up a smidge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thanks. What are the particulars, though? By source temperature, are they referring to 850 mb, 800 mb, 700 mb? 850 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Have you not seen the precip maps? The snow max on one of those weenie maps is in Kentucky, so yeah I was wrong. I forgot that this thing moved north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wouldn't be surprised to see precip max fill in east of Apps. Right now this feels like it might stripe someone with 12-15 or so.. Models are actually pretty wet already and may tick up a smidge. That's being bold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wouldn't be surprised to see precip max fill in east of Apps. Right now this feels like it might stripe someone with 12-15 or so.. Models are actually pretty wet already and may tick up a smidge. Agreed. I like seeing that 1-1.1" QPF targeting West Virginia, and this is solid mass of heavy precip moving into a great cold dome we have here. Whoever gets that 12-15 will be a lucky group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Its gonna snow dude lol. If you want to learn about dendritic snow growth, Google.. snow microphysics. Its a bit complex but interesting. 850 mb The Mid-Atlantic sub-forum is rocking today. Thanks, folks. Open up the link below!!! Good stuff, lot of us may cash in on dendrite muthaload. This PPT: gives the goodies and not at all difficult to understand. At 850 mb, -15 is cotton candy dendrite muthaload time. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCYQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.erh.noaa.gov%2Fctp%2FHISA%2FSnowMicroPhysics.ppt&ei=QeXgVNKvF4qmNv_XgPgJ&usg=AFQjCNFvHYoCo033SdmQS8dB_rIcrbQYkA&sig2=Bv3fO36uAE0buokxjpwslA&bvm=bv.85970519,d.eXY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Agreed. I like seeing that 1-1.1" QPF targeting West Virginia, and this is solid mass of heavy precip moving into a great cold dome we have here. Whoever gets that 12-15 will be a lucky group.It will be Highstakes,Sparky,Mappy and PSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That's being boldA little maybe but not really. It's easy to envision a fairly decent 6-12 or 8-12 zone and then probably a smaller one that cashes in on banding within it. Someone could get some quality ratios here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thanks. What are the particulars, though? By source temperature, are they referring to 850 mb, 800 mb, 700 mb? Wherever the lift is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wherever the lift is. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCYQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.erh.noaa.gov%2Fctp%2FHISA%2FSnowMicroPhysics.ppt&ei=QeXgVNKvF4qmNv_XgPgJ&usg=AFQjCNFvHYoCo033SdmQS8dB_rIcrbQYkA&sig2=Bv3fO36uAE0buokxjpwslA&bvm=bv.85970519,d.eXY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That's being bold Not really. We'll know more tomorrow of course. These types of storms almost always have a max stripe with mesocale banding. Suface flow goes se-e-ne through the event. Orographic ehancement possible in the usual areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If these snow amounts verify there will probably be record lows this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 F.Y.I folks...soundings look beautiful. As in...a DEEP moist layer of -10 to -15C, with lift maximizing around -12C to -15C isotherm. That's ideal for dendritic growth, which would explain why I'm seeing quite a bit of SLR's in the 15-20 to 1 range (though realistically, 15-17 to 1 is probably as good as it gets around here). .50 inch QPF with a 16-1 SLR = 8". Care should be taken when viewing some of those implicit ECMWF maps -- I believe they use a 10-1 SLR exclusively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 F.Y.I folks...soundings look beautiful. As in...a DEEP moist layer of -10 to -15C, with lift maximizing around -12C to -15C isotherm. That's ideal for dendritic growth, which would explain why I'm seeing quite a bit of SLR's in the 15-20 to 1 range (though realistically, 15-17 to 1 is probably as good as it gets around here). .50 inch QPF with a 16-1 SLR = 8". Care should be taken when viewing some of those implicit ECMWF maps -- I believe they use a 10-1 SLR exclusively. Thanks for the post... very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenfanalways Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I prefer to use the range shown on there, instead of the exact QPF amounts in some of the maps above. If you look closely you can clearly see DC is blue shaded, suggesting 0.5-0.75" of QPF. Map reading 101, if you are on a line between .25-.50 and .50-.75, you aren't getting .75 based on that particular map LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 A little maybe but not really. It's easy to envision a fairly decent 6-12 or 8-12 zone and then probably a smaller one that cashes in on banding within it. Someone could get some quality ratios here. I can see a localized jurisdiction here and there approaching a foot, but I'd say max inside Beltway where we stand would be 10 considering trends. I wouldn't say it's impossible for those higher numbers, but model guidance still hasn't come close to a foot in D.C. in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If these snow amounts verify there will probably be record lows this week. Thursday morning was already going to be cold. Could help get a lot of folks close to 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not really. We'll know more tomorrow of course. These types of storms almost always have a max stripe with mesocale banding. Suface flow goes se-e-ne through the event. Orographic ehancement possible in the usual areas. Our main limitation might be speed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Off topic for this thread, but check out the ensemble cold for the entire period: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Good thing the N Md folks punted Not me. Let's do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I can see a localized jurisdiction here and there approaching a foot, but I'd say max inside Beltway where we stand would be 10 considering trends. I wouldn't say it's impossible for those higher numbers, but model guidance still hasn't come close to a foot in D.C. in my mind.Model regurgitation is boring sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Our main limitation might be speed True. Max qpf is prob 1" tops. Will be hard to get more than that in 12 hours. ETA: not talking widespread of course. Just a lucky spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Some folks are going to measure double digits tues am. Storms of this origin, besides being inherently good for DC, are usually juicier. If it's in the low 20's and we get near 0.75 qpf somebody is getting 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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