WxMan1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That map is old..the criteria for upper Delmarva and SNJ (Mount Holly region) was increased from 4 to 5". Gotcha. Just took it off from PHI's winter weather page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Gotcha. Just took it off from PHI's winter weather page. I generally agree with you. But I suspect in most cases they are not going to forecast something like 3-5 inches anymore. It will be 2-4, 4-6, 6-8, etc. So if there is potential for 5, the call will be 4-6 I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Considering the LWX WSWatch criteria .... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Defined/#Winter Storm Watch Does anyone know why (or have an opinion on) NWS might be holding off on issuing a Watch, considering what we have seen from the 12z model suite thus far (especially those counties south of DC) ? Being a FED employee myself, I get the conservative, careful, and reserved mindset... but it seems that there might be a subjective threshold regarding confidence level? Furthermore, FED offices tend to be slow-moving monoliths, and another reason for that slow movement could be that all the Virginia NWS offices are coordinating their efforts in issuing the watches? I worked for the NWS in Blacksburg, VA so I'm not completely unfamiliar with these tactics and strategy.. I'm wondering what the collective opinion of the room is on this subject... thanks for the responses. For the system coming up, I would wait until three forecast periods before the impact would be felt and so that would be 4 pm this afternoon because Tuesday rush hour starting at 4 am would be the impact time. It would be for a winter weather advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Will post Euro precip map as they come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I agree with you...just thinking about the impact of a 3-5" snowstorm on the beltways around here ('high' impact). Sorry about the banter folks... didn't mean to! How deep into the winter season matters a lot as well. An impactful storm just after Thanksgiving will threaten people more than a storm near the end of the winter. Schools care because they look at how many snow days have been burned. They don't want to burn another day and keep schools open into the third week of June for a two inch snow. The average person should know if they need new tires and know where their ice scraper/snow shovel/ice melter is ready and stored and waiting by mid-February. If they haven't caught on by February 15, it doesn't matter what warnings and advisories are being issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GGEM is slightly south in my eyes. And UKMET is too with Precip. I would hold off on Winter Storm Watches for the Baltimore area. Yes, I'm sure sterling is giving serious weight to the most surpressed and worst model there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Will post Euro precip map as they come in. Can you please just give total map. Not hourly? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thanks for the response... I almost forgot how regimented the NWS likes to be when sending out updates... and apparently they like to wait for certain "designated time slots" in the morning and afternoon to take action. Very interesting how that operation works. They divide periods into 12 hour blocks and issue advisories in time for rush hour, 4 am and 2 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How deep into the winter season matters a lot as well. An impactful storm just after Thanksgiving will threaten people more than a storm near the end of the winter. Schools care because they look at how many snow days have been burned. They don't want to burn another day and keep schools open into the third week of June for a two inch snow. The average person should know if they need new tires and know where their ice scraper/snow shovel/ice melter is ready and stored and waiting by mid-February. If they haven't caught on by February 15, it doesn't matter what warnings and advisories are being issued. Watches, warnings, and advisories trigger a number of state and local government actions, which cost a significant amount of money. So the issuance of those watches, warnings, advisories are more important economically then you might think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Enough warnings talk. What does the Euro say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Enough warnings talk. What does the Euro say?No warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Enough warnings talk. What does the Euro say? Looks good, very little precip enters at hr36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Enough warnings talk. What does the Euro say? This. Let's move to the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro is good we got this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro is a hit .5 up the m/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 HR42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm sold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro is good we got this. yep, looks similar to 00z to me edit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro is a hit .5 up the m/D line. What hour are you at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 .5 to md pa border thru 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks good. Don't know why my post said no warnings, but it should have said warnings now... Anyways solid run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Lock it up. Juicy. Good hit for most everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 HR48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm sold shocker.JPG I have waited all winter for this from Bob! Euro is BEAUTIFUL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro Qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Very nice 6-8 across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Watches, warnings, and advisories trigger a number of state and local government actions, which cost a significant amount of money. So the issuance of those watches, warnings, advisories are more important economically then you might think. Yeah, I see and agree what you are saying. I sense that LWX will be disciplined to make a team decision, with the input of several experienced forecasters that know the region. We/they know the goalposts; probably 1" to 8" [more south and less north] and those goal posts will shrink each six hours with fresh model guidance and soon...observational guidance. I betcha $21.50 (today's date in money) that LXW nails this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Can you please just give total map. Not hourly? Thanks. or even every few frames would be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This will save about 20 posts in the next 3 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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