North Balti Zen Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GGEM is slightly south in my eyes. And UKMET is too with Precip. I would hold off on Winter Storm Watches for the Baltimore area. Noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Since it will begin tomorrow, which is President's Day, but it won't be of the magnitude of previous President Day storms, I say we give it the President's Day honor, but with the acknowledgement that it is a minor event compared to prior historic storms. Therefore, I suggest PD₃. Yup and being presidents day it would only be proper to bullseye DC ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 A little drier than last night but prob just noise at this point. Probably just coming into better alignment with the other globals. I expect .5-.7 from the Euro too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 A little drier than last night but prob just noise at this point. Looking those maps, seems to be about 19/20 mm around EZF....UKMET has been really steady for this entire storm run up....interesting stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I feel that after 12z Euro, Winter Storm Watches need to be hoisted an a line from Loudoun-SE Moco-Anne Arundel and southwest from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I would fight off the wish-casting for now. What rings true are calls for the SLP to stay the course, not slipping north from the tracks offered now. What will save or disappoint NVA/CMD/DC will be the precip. shield, will it be Generous or dry? Perhaps look at 700 mb charts and omegas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crystal City Jeff Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Considering the LWX WSWatch criteria .... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Defined/#Winter Storm Watch Does anyone know why (or have an opinion on) NWS might be holding off on issuing a Watch, considering what we have seen from the 12z model suite thus far (especially those counties south of DC) ? Being a FED employee myself, I get the conservative, careful, and reserved mindset... but it seems that there might be a subjective threshold regarding confidence level? Furthermore, FED offices tend to be slow-moving monoliths, and another reason for that slow movement could be that all the Virginia NWS offices are coordinating their efforts in issuing the watches? I worked for the NWS in Blacksburg, VA so I'm not completely unfamiliar with these tactics and strategy.. I'm wondering what the collective opinion of the room is on this subject... thanks for the responses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't want to banter up the storm thread but I am only a private contractor and service some government locations in leesburg. We always plow at 2" until the storm is done, then salt at the end to prevent icing. Only thing I can think of why they didn't treat is the heavy wind or the extreme cold which may not do anything depending on what mixture they are actually using to treat. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 No reason to issue watches until after the euro.....maybe not until the late afternoon update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I expect watches south of I-70, not too confident further north. But they could do area-wide if the Euro is a hit for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Probably just coming into better alignment with the other globals. I expect .5-.7 from the Euro too. Agree. Guidance is getting pretty tight for central md on south. N md is the wildcard. I'd put money on them doing quite well. Pretty awesome that it will be instant stickage everywhere. One of my favorite things (and rare things) about metro snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Considering the LWX WSWatch criteria .... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Defined/#Winter Storm Watch Does anyone know why (or have an opinion on) NWS might be holding off on issuing a Watch, considering what we have seen from the 12z model suite so far (especially those counties south of DC) ? Being a FED employee myself, I get the conservative, careful, and reserved mindset... but it seems that there might be a subjective threshold regarding confidence level? Furthermore, FED offices tend to be slow-moving monoliths, and another reason for that slow movement could be that all the Virginia NWS offices are coordinating their efforts in issuing the watches? I worked for the NWS in Blacksburg, VA so I'm not completely unfamiliar with these tactics and strategy.. I'm wondering what the collective opinion of the room is on this subject... thanks for the responses. Mostly since the models have been all over the place. If Euro holds then they will issue watches from probably Baltimore on South. Northern counties of MD might have to wait. Any watches will most likely be issued during the Afternoon update (About 3PM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Considering the LWX WSWatch criteria .... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Defined/#Winter Storm Watch Does anyone know why (or have an opinion on) NWS might be holding off on issuing a Watch, considering what we have seen from the 12z model suite so far (especially those counties south of DC) ? Being a FED employee myself, I get the conservative, careful, and reserved mindset... but it seems that there might be a subjective threshold regarding confidence level? Furthermore, FED offices tend to be slow-moving monoliths, and another reason for that slow movement could be that all the Virginia NWS offices are coordinating their efforts in issuing the watches? I worked for the NWS in Blacksburg, VA so I'm not completely unfamiliar with these tactics and strategy.. I'm wondering what the collective opinion of the room is on this subject... thanks for the responses. Three things: 1.) Timing: Winter Storm Watches are issued within 48 hours from the anticipated start time. 2.) Snow Amounts: The preponderance of model guidance and available forecast data must be in reasonable agreement that warning criteria snowfall will be exceeded across a large area. Isolated amounts of warning criteria do not count. 3.) Forecaster confidence: Forecaster confidence must be *at least* 50% that warning criteria snowfall or ice will be met. With the complex pattern that we are currently in, there is no reason to pigeonhole a subsequent shift with a watch. 3.1) Impacts: When a winter storm watch is issued, it triggers a lot of things: conference calls, pre-snow DOT checks/road brining, EOC pre-activation calls, school calls, etc. In the northeast megalopolis, a watch / warning is literally a multi-million dollar decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 No reason to issue watches until after the euro.....maybe not until the late afternoon update. Three things: 1.) Timing: Winter Storm Watches are issued within 48 hours from the anticipated start time. 2.) Snow Amounts: The preponderance of model guidance and available forecast data must be in reasonable agreement that warning criteria snowfall will be exceeded across a large area. Isolated amounts of warning criteria do not count. 3.) Forecaster confidence: Forecaster confidence must be *at least* 50% that warning criteria snowfall or ice will be met. With the complex pattern that we are currently in, there is no reason to pigeonhole a subsequent shift with a watch. 3.1) Impacts: When a winter storm watch is issued, it triggers a lot of things: conference calls, pre-snow DOT checks/road brining, EOC pre-activation calls, school calls, etc. In the northeast megalopolis, a watch / warning is literally a multi-million dollar decision. I never would think of that last statement, but oh so true and important to remember! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Watches don't make it snow. They'll be along soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crystal City Jeff Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Three things: 1.) Timing: Winter Storm Watches are issued within 48 hours from the anticipated start time. 2.) Snow Amounts: The preponderance of model guidance and available forecast data must be in reasonable agreement that warning criteria snowfall will be exceeded across a large area. Isolated amounts of warning criteria do not count. 3.) Forecaster confidence: Forecaster confidence must be *at least* 50% that warning criteria snowfall or ice will be met. With the complex pattern that we are currently in, there is no reason to pigeonhole a subsequent shift with a watch. 3.1) Impacts: When a winter storm watch is issued, it triggers a lot of things: conference calls, pre-snow DOT checks/road brining, EOC pre-activation calls, school calls, etc. In the northeast megalopolis, a watch / warning is literally a multi-million dollar decision. Thank you for the thorough response. And yes that reason alone is enough to justify the need for an over-abundance of caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Considering the LWX WSWatch criteria .... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Defined/#Winter Storm Watch Does anyone know why (or have an opinion on) NWS might be holding off on issuing a Watch, considering what we have seen from the 12z model suite thus far (especially those counties south of DC) ? Being a FED employee myself, I get the conservative, careful, and reserved mindset... but it seems that there might be a subjective threshold regarding confidence level? Furthermore, FED offices tend to be slow-moving monoliths, and another reason for that slow movement could be that all the Virginia NWS offices are coordinating their efforts in issuing the watches? I worked for the NWS in Blacksburg, VA so I'm not completely unfamiliar with these tactics and strategy.. I'm wondering what the collective opinion of the room is on this subject... thanks for the responses. If the Euro holds... They would issue it in the afternoon package... IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Players already on the field taking their positions I see with rain developing in TX and snow firing up in the northern and central plains in response to the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Considering the LWX WSWatch criteria .... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Defined/#Winter Storm Watch Does anyone know why (or have an opinion on) NWS might be holding off on issuing a Watch, considering what we have seen from the 12z model suite thus far (especially those counties south of DC) ? Being a FED employee myself, I get the conservative, careful, and reserved mindset... but it seems that there might be a subjective threshold regarding confidence level? Furthermore, FED offices tend to be slow-moving monoliths, and another reason for that slow movement could be that all the Virginia NWS offices are coordinating their efforts in issuing the watches? I worked for the NWS in Blacksburg, VA so I'm not completely unfamiliar with these tactics and strategy.. I'm wondering what the collective opinion of the room is on this subject... thanks for the responses. This is somewhat of a pet peeve of mine... Recently the 12 hour snowfall criteria for the DC-Balt metro area was raised from 4" to 5", which means a 3-6" forecast (avg 4.5") and a 4-6" forecast (avg 5") will justify a watch/warning...BUT...3-5" will no longer (i.e. 3-5" is now considered 'advisory criteria'. What bothers me about that is the criteria for the I-95 corridor here in the mid Atlantic is the SAME as in western VA and western MD, which means I think our new 12 hr criteria is too high. Meanwhile, areas to the northeast, including the eastern shore and south Jersey, are 4" in 12 hours...which means a 3-5" forecast *would* warrant a watch/warning and not just an advisory. I'm sorry -- but anytime 3-5" hits the beltways in DC/Baltimore, especially when temps are well below freezing, that's a warning event, not an advisory. Just my opinion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ensemble mean looks great! http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=namk&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=prec&WMO=72503&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201502151200%26HH%3D42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 4k NAM gives us 7-8" FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is somewhat of a pet peeve of mine... Recently the 12 hour snowfall criteria for the DC-Balt metro area was raised from 4" to 5", which means a 3-6" forecast (avg 4.5") and a 4-6" forecast (avg 5") will justify a watch/warning...BUT...3-5" will no longer. What bothers me about that is the criteria for the I-95 corridor here in the mid Atlantic is the SAME as in western VA and western MD. Meanwhile, areas to the northeast, including the eastern shore and south Jersey, are 4" in 12 hours...which means a 3-5" forecast *would* warrant a watch/warning and not just an advisory. I'm sorry -- but anytime 3-5" hits the beltways in DC/Baltimore, especially when temps are well below freezing, that's a warning event, not an advisory. Just my opinion... Thank you for sharing the map. I did not know that Boston need 6 inches to be a WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thank you for sharing the map. I did not know that Boston need 6 inches to be a WSW At first I would see that post as banter, but the map is indeed useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Does anybody know if the americanwx.com GFS total snowfall maps use 10:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Does anybody know if the americanwx.com GFS total snowfall maps use 10:1 ratios?Not 100% sure but yes. Most do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is somewhat of a pet peeve of mine... Recently the 12 hour snowfall criteria for the DC-Balt metro area was raised from 4" to 5", which means a 3-6" forecast (avg 4.5") and a 4-6" forecast (avg 5") will justify a watch/warning...BUT...3-5" will no longer (i.e. 3-5" is now considered 'advisory criteria'. What bothers me about that is the criteria for the I-95 corridor here in the mid Atlantic is the SAME as in western VA and western MD, which means I think our new 12 hr criteria is too high. Meanwhile, areas to the northeast, including the eastern shore and south Jersey, are 4" in 12 hours...which means a 3-5" forecast *would* warrant a watch/warning and not just an advisory. I'm sorry -- but anytime 3-5" hits the beltways in DC/Baltimore, especially when temps are well below freezing, that's a warning event, not an advisory. Just my opinion... I think the Philly region recently raised their warning criteria to 5", which makes perfect sense... ours has been 5" for at least 10 years or close to it. Most of western MD isn't a whole lot snowier until you're west of Cumberland. 3-5" doesn't quite feel like a major storm IMO, but maybe that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ensemble mean looks great! http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=namk&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=prec&WMO=72503&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201502151200%26HH%3D42 i'll feel better after this euro run. i feel like we can afford a northward shift more so than a southward one. we're in it, but not far from being fringed either. i'm waiting until 18z runs before expectations are raised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think the Philly region recently raised their warning criteria to 5", which makes perfect sense... ours has been 5" for at least 10 years or close to it. Most of western MD isn't a whole lot snowier until you're west of Cumberland. 3-5" doesn't quite feel like a major storm IMO, but maybe that's just me. I agree with you...just thinking about the impact of a 3-5" snowstorm on the beltways around here ('high' impact). Sorry about the banter folks... didn't mean to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crystal City Jeff Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If the Euro holds... They would issue it in the afternoon package... IMO Thanks for the response... I almost forgot how regimented the NWS likes to be when sending out updates... and apparently they like to wait for certain "designated time slots" in the morning and afternoon to take action. Very interesting how that operation works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is somewhat of a pet peeve of mine... Recently the 12 hour snowfall criteria for the DC-Balt metro area was raised from 4" to 5", which means a 3-6" forecast (avg 4.5") and a 4-6" forecast (avg 5") will justify a watch/warning...BUT...3-5" will no longer (i.e. 3-5" is now considered 'advisory criteria'. What bothers me about that is the criteria for the I-95 corridor here in the mid Atlantic is the SAME as in western VA and western MD, which means I think our new 12 hr criteria is too high. Meanwhile, areas to the northeast, including the eastern shore and south Jersey, are 4" in 12 hours...which means a 3-5" forecast *would* warrant a watch/warning and not just an advisory. I'm sorry -- but anytime 3-5" hits the beltways in DC/Baltimore, especially when temps are well below freezing, that's a warning event, not an advisory. Just my opinion... That map is old..the criteria for upper Delmarva and SNJ (Mount Holly region) was increased from 4 to 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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