SerialDerecho Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Tough to say...confidence is not great. Need 50% confidence to hoist a watch. Given the track record of guidance and the pattern I'm not sure if we have it. I'm off til the Monday night shift... 10p-6a. If this is off topics, please move. How do you quantify model confidence? I realize that with this storm, models were all over the place until yesterday. That in it self leads to "low" confidence. But how does NWS convert that into, for example, 30% confidence as opposed to the needed 50% thresh hold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 From DT's facebook page. I think he is in self denial that he might mix. ETA: Plus the stuff about Boston only getting 4" of snow, is total and utter BS. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BOX MIDDAY UPDATE SOON... NEW DATA ROLLING IN ... THE WIND AND COLD THIS MORNING IS AN ISSUE... THE NORTH TREND Before I start posting the new data couple points here. Many have been talking about ..including myself... The persist in north trend weather models all winter long. But ther i's also another trend here which is being overlooked. Take yesterday's New England snowstorm.... 4 days ago it look like boston was going to get over 12 inches of snow then 2 days ot was 8-12 Inches. Boston ended up with 4" !!! What happened? The big storm formed but it did so further east.Consider the New England and New York City blizzard in late January... Where New York City was supposed to get 24-30 inches of snow... and ended up with 12. But the 24"+ of snow was only 30 miles away to the east. What happened? The Low formed a little further to the east. The strong winds and their coldest morning means that the cold air is still being advected or pushed into the area. The actual low pressure area itself isnt that strong.... so this is not in anyway shape or form going to be a raging nor'easter. With the enormous L ow over southeastern Canada - the one that only gave Boston 4" -and the strong winds still over the East Coast ... There is only going to be so much of the north trend with the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 From DT's facebook page. I think he is in self denial that he might mix. ETA: Plus the stuff about Boston only getting 4" of snow, is total and utter BS. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BOX MIDDAY UPDATE SOON... NEW DATA ROLLING IN ... THE WIND AND COLD THIS MORNING IS AN ISSUE... THE NORTH TREND Before I start posting the new data couple points here. Many have been talking about ..including myself... The persist in north trend weather models all winter long. But ther i's also another trend here which is being overlooked. Take yesterday's New England snowstorm.... 4 days ago it look like boston was going to get over 12 inches of snow then 2 days ot was 8-12 Inches. Boston ended up with 4" !!! What happened? The big storm formed but it did so further east. Consider the New England and New York City blizzard in late January... Where New York City was supposed to get 24-30 inches of snow... and ended up with 12. But the 24"+ of snow was only 30 miles away to the east. What happened? The Low formed a little further to the east. The strong winds and their coldest morning means that the cold air is still being advected or pushed into the area. The actual low pressure area itself isnt that strong.... so this is not in anyway shape or form going to be a raging nor'easter. With the enormous L ow over southeastern Canada - the one that only gave Boston 4" -and the strong winds still over the East Coast ... There is only going to be so much of the north trend with the system. Sounds like a RIC wish cast per usual with DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not sure if it's been mentioned , but TWC has named this storm OCTAVIA LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 There are 2 ways to look at "north trend". One is slp and the other is expanse of precip shield. I don't think the slp is going to track much further north but 50 miles north would make a sizeable difference in MD just like 50 miles further south will. Strength will determine expanse. 2 storms could take identical tracks and produce different results on the nw side. The track as it stands right now is excellent. We won't know the fine details for another 12-24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What happened to the pbp on the CMC? Curious as to its result... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feb11th1983 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Keeping his minions excited. He may be right but if it's close at all, Richmond usually mixes with sleet at some point. I know that's not scientific but 30 years of following weather here tells me that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not sure if it's been mentioned , but TWC has named this storm OCTAVIA LOL A little off-topic...I've seen your posts every now and then about you service on our roads, which we should all appreciate. I have question for you though. How do you decide when to plow versus salt? I had a plow come through during the end of last night's squall, but never saw the salting. How do you decide what method to use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z UKIE at 48 -- 1002mb right around Norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What happened to the pbp on the CMC? Curious as to its result... Northern peeps won't like this but here it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z UKIE QPF map at 42 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Northern peeps won't like this but here it is ggemsno.JPG How does it compare to last night's 00Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Northern peeps won't like this but here it is Oh noes i am only getting an inch. Woe is me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Northern peeps won't like this but here it is ggemsno.JPG 50 miles north would be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GGEM is slightly south in my eyes. And UKMET is too with Precip. I would hold off on Winter Storm Watches for the Baltimore area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z UKIE hr 48 QPF map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 UKIE seems locked in, it's been pretty deadly this year. 5-7" factoring in ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Oh noes i am only getting an inch. Woe is me.Good to be screwed by the Canadian since it is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How does it compare to last night's 00Z? Same distribution but .10 qpf more from dca northward. ETA: last night's was .10 more than Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Good to be screwed by the Canadian since it is the worst. How was your flight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Late response but I doubt DCA had 20:1 ratios jan 2010 as well. Automated stations are often low on precip in snow esp if windy. No need to get fancy with ratios.. Expect a little better than 'normal'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z UKIE hr 48 QPF map 12zUKIE48hrsQPF2-15-15.gif Looking at those 2 Ukie maps and sort of adding things, pretty good for everyone. Seems consistent with what it has been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How was your flight?Mostly fine.. Last 10 had a few seat grabbing moments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looking at those 2 Ukie maps and sort of adding things, pretty good for everyone. Seems consistent with what it has been showing. About 16/17mm.... 0.6 to 0.7 QPF looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 UKIE looks like about 0.4" QPF for my neck of the woods... probably 4-6". Good to be screwed by the Canadian since it is the worst. Thank God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GGEM is slightly south in my eyes. And UKMET is too with Precip. I would hold off on Winter Storm Watches for the Baltimore area. GGEM actually a bit north with precip and UKMET is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The track is a little farther north on the UKMET, just the precip is much more consildated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 A little off-topic...I've seen your posts every now and then about you service on our roads, which we should all appreciate. I have question for you though. How do you decide when to plow versus salt? I had a plow come through during the end of last night's squall, but never saw the salting. How do you decide what method to use? I don't want to banter up the storm thread but I am only a private contractor and service some government locations in leesburg. We always plow at 2" until the storm is done, then salt at the end to prevent icing. Only thing I can think of why they didn't treat is the heavy wind or the extreme cold which may not do anything depending on what mixture they are actually using to treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not sure if it's been mentioned , but TWC has named this storm OCTAVIA LOL Since it will begin tomorrow, which is President's Day, but it won't be of the magnitude of previous President Day storms, I say we give it the President's Day honor, but with the acknowledgement that it is a minor event compared to prior historic storms. Therefore, I suggest PD₃. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 About 16/17mm.... 0.6 to 0.7 QPF looks like A little drier than last night but prob just noise at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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