Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 20:1 the entire storm? Hahaha, ok. Sure. you probably get 0.3" on this run..verbatim you'd be good for 4" from the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I see the models too, we will not be cold enough for 20:1 the whole time. Some of the ridiculous 5" amounts being thrown around by people who are lucky to get .3 qpf is downright wish casting and ridiculous. I'll be lucky to see 3". Great ****ing storm Quit whining. It doesnt always work out that the northern tier gets the most snow. Deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 BWI is .40 and Martin State Airport is .35. Westminster is .25. That would put Cockeysville roughly at .30. 5 inches is a little too ambitious but 4 is likely. For us 3-4 based on this run. We are extremely cold during the storm. Cobb data has .26 for Westminster totalling 4.2" of snow with temps around 13F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z GFS shows 0.5-0.75" of QPF in DC, which would translate to 6-9" with 12:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I see the models too, we will not be cold enough for 20:1 the whole time. Some of the ridiculous 5" amounts being thrown around by people who are lucky to get .3 qpf is downright wish casting and ridiculous. I'll be lucky to see 3". Great ****ing storm Your killing the great mood on the forum this morning... what makes you think the north trend is suddenly over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 something that suggests to me another northward shift are the 1000-500 thicknesses when we are the bulls eye, I check them for us and the surrounding MA locations I find that even when we are in the bulls eye, before the north trend starts, thicknesses are higher than what would be expected based upon 850 temps, which I know means warming at other levels well, I'm seeing that now down in ROA as their 850 temp is -3.9 and thicknesses are 5400 this is not always perfect, but it seems to work just fine when we're in the bulls eye like they have been, but won't be if it continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Too much parsing of qpf when we know it's not done shifting. It was an improvement from 6z. We have 4 more runs before onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I see the models too, we will not be cold enough for 20:1 the whole time. Some of the ridiculous 5" amounts being thrown around by people who are lucky to get .3 qpf is downright wish casting and ridiculous. I'll be lucky to see 3". Great ****ing storm Compared to what GFS looked like even 12 hours ago, I'm really encouraged. Whether it gives me 5" or 3" doesn't matter us much as the way it's been trending since last night, and I don't think it's done yet. I'll be happy with 4" if that's what the storm delivers. Sure, we'd all like 8"+ but with the way this winter has gone, a solid snow pack for a few days is really all I ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I see the models too, we will not be cold enough for 20:1 the whole time. Some of the ridiculous 5" amounts being thrown around by people who are lucky to get .3 qpf is downright wish casting and ridiculous. I'll be lucky to see 3". Great ****ing storm You know, you're right, thats a great way to look at it. Lets verbatim take the 12z gfs in a trending storm with favorable qpf and snow placement to our s/w, no hp or pv pressing in, and 36 hours before game time. In the middle of what most consider an awfully crappy winter, not to mention the very GFS you're describing has had notorious issues with NW cold sector precip extent for years. Also, your NMD region is notable for its success on convergent banding in the outer periphery of the storm. VV's are not bad in the area and likely indicative of the best lift likely continuing to move into our area of CMD. But hey, thats just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z GFS shows 0.5-0.75" of QPF in DC, which would translate to 6-9" with 12:1 ratios. It shows just about 0.50"..nothing close to 0.75", at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Too much parsing of qpf when we know it's not done shifting. It was an improvement from 6z. We have 4 more runs before onset. gfsqpf1.JPG Thanks for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Too much parsing of qpf when we know it's not done shifting. It was an improvement from 6z. We have 4 more runs before onset. gfsqpf1.JPG That's even better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Oh my bad, I guess the whining and bitching is only allowed for DCers who get the shaft every other storm. Carry on. I'll take my ball and go elsewhere. Not sure what your expectations are, but I think your upside is quite a bit higher than you are thinking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It shows just about 0.50"..nothing close to 0.75", at least not yet. I prefer to use the range shown on there, instead of the exact QPF amounts in some of the maps above. If you look closely you can clearly see DC is blue shaded, suggesting 0.5-0.75" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not sure what your expectations are, but I think your upside is quite a bit higher than you are thinking... I'd definitely second that statement Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Your killing the great mood on the forum this morning... what makes you think the north trend is suddenly over? It's better to be sensible than overestimate. 4" might be a better call that 5"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It shows just about 0.50"..nothing close to 0.75", at least not yet. The .75" line still appears to be only a few miles southeast of D.C. from what the wxbell map shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I prefer to use the range shown on there, instead of the exact QPF amounts in some of the maps above. If you look closely you can clearly see DC is blue shaded, suggesting 0.5-0.75" of QPF. Yes mike thats true, but they are narrowly in the .5 area of QPF. If I didn't check text data and had to guess I'd shoot for say .55-.58, but again shifts are still moving the better QPF and lift north, so lets see what the Euro has to say about it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not sure if we still check the GGEM when are in this close... but hr 36 has 1007mb SLP in C AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yes mike thats true, but they are narrowly in the .5 area of QPF. If I didn't check text data and had to guess I'd shoot for say .55-.58, but again shifts are still moving the better QPF and lift north, so lets see what the Euro has to say about it all. I say time to leave the northern folks alone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I prefer to use the range shown on there, instead of the exact QPF amounts in some of the maps above. If you look closely you can clearly see DC is blue shaded, suggesting 0.5-0.75" of QPF. There's no range, they're thresholds representing a transition in the color key. Models like the GFS are deterministic, not probabilistic. I wish the GFS gave us 0.75", but it doesn't, at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'd definitely second that statement Matt. Unless the rug gets pulled we are all going to be fine. Region wide 3-6 with a potential upside more likely than reduced totals. Unbelievable temps with no precip type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't even get .3 from gfs. Gotta go south to Balt for that Maybe they are expecting the 18z to move even further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not sure if we still check the GGEM when are in this close... but hr 36 has 1007mb SLP in C AL It's out to hour 12 on Amwx models site tho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 There's no range, they're thresholds representing a transition in the color key. Models like the GFS are deterministic, not probabilistic. The range in the key located in the bottom left. I know the GFS throws out a specific number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Unless the rug gets pulled we are all going to be fine. Region wide 3-6 with a potential upside more likely than reduced totals. Unbelievable temps with no precip type issues. Perfect 3 sentence summation. Nothing else needs to be said until the euro. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I am not even thinking about it. There is a trend here and it's north, ahem, so far. Pointless to parse QPF right now. If some good banding occurs someone will get a bit more. 3-6 area wide too bold? I may be on the low end of any range. But it looks like I can get a broom out for this stuff. Excellent. Mitch always has great insight. So if anyone has doubts about north trend they should take heart from what he just posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Oh my bad, I guess the whining and bitching is only allowed for DCers who get the shaft every other storm. Carry on. I'll take my ball and go elsewhere. I think your upside will only continue to get better. But you are right, the DC folks own the rights to the martyr complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GGEM looks nice at 48... 1004mb SLP E SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feb11th1983 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 this is looking really good for RIC! Widespread 8 inches around here per the gfs. Now I'm expecting sleet to screw our totals with a another bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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