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February 16-17 Storm Threat


WxUSAF

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Or it could totally screw us. I'm a worrier...I go from being excited and hopeful to now the worry phase. It's sick, but that's how I've rolled living in this region. Trends are good, but with the way we've been done this winter, no guarantee the good times will continue tonight at 0z.

Im the same exact way. I have more to worry about currently, given my location. 50-75 miles more and id stop worrying.

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Or it could totally screw us. I'm a worrier...I go from being excited and hopeful to now the worry phase. It's sick, but that's how I've rolled living in this region. Trends are good, but with the way we've been done this winter, no guarantee the good times will continue tonight at 0z.

At least we're not stuck in a redeveloper type situation. Or moisture starved but "possible" dynamic system that blooms overhead. Inside of 48 hours with all guidance showing a solid hit from a moisture train directly from the TN valley has me not worried much at all. It's close man. It will snowing in 36 hours.

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At least we're not stuck in a redeveloper type situation. Or moisture starved but "possible" dynamic system that blooms overhead. Inside of 48 hours with all guidance showing a solid hit from a moisture train directly from the TN valley has me not worried much at all. It's close man. It will snowing in 36 hours.

As others have said I really like the heavy stuff to our west and southwest. Always good for us.
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We have been at this for ages so we know that is true, but i would say that is a 10% chance at this stage. We are 30 hours from onset and every model looks great, i would not be worried at all. It is just a question if we get 4" or 8", i would say closer to the 8". And snow with the temps in the low 20's is awesome.

 

Yep, if this was pegged for Wednesday I'd be nervous, but time is running out to trend the wrong way or screw us. 

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What gfs are you guys looking at? Qpf for us is .2-.3 at the most. No way would you guys get 5" out of that

 

Probably a little more for us closer to the city, and with ratios it could be 4-5". 

 

I'm not too worried about exact output at this point. The trends matter the most and these storms tend to produce nice bands in the northern burbs. 

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And I retarded? How are any of you northerners getting 5" snow out of .2 qpf?

BWI is .40 and Martin State Airport is .35. Westminster is .25. That would put Cockeysville roughly at .30. 5 inches is a little too ambitious but 4 is likely. For us 3-4 based on this run. We are extremely cold during the storm.

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BWI is .40 and Martin State Airport is .35. Westminster is .25. That would put Cockeysville roughly at .30. 5 inches is a little too ambitious but 4 is likely. For us 3-4 based on this run. We are extremely cold during the storm.

I see the models too, we will not be cold enough for 20:1 the whole time. Some of the ridiculous 5" amounts being thrown around by people who are lucky to get .3 qpf is downright wish casting and ridiculous.

I'll be lucky to see 3". Great ****ing storm

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I'm not really sure where you're at...north of Balt? It's hard to tell from those maps what totals are. I don't think its done coming north.

That should be the takeaway, if you want to parse the minutias at this point thats fine, but with a possibility of a more favorable shift for her, I don't think I really care.

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