Interstate Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 For those interested north of Baltimore. Here is the qpf for Westminster the last 3 GFS runs. 0Z:.17 6Z:.20 12Z:.25 Consistent improvement although not drastic. Temps during snow 14-16. I still expect it to come more North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Or it could totally screw us. I'm a worrier...I go from being excited and hopeful to now the worry phase. It's sick, but that's how I've rolled living in this region. Trends are good, but with the way we've been done this winter, no guarantee the good times will continue tonight at 0z. Im the same exact way. I have more to worry about currently, given my location. 50-75 miles more and id stop worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Or it could totally screw us. I'm a worrier...I go from being excited and hopeful to now the worry phase. It's sick, but that's how I've rolled living in this region. Trends are good, but with the way we've been done this winter, no guarantee the good times will continue tonight at 0z. At least we're not stuck in a redeveloper type situation. Or moisture starved but "possible" dynamic system that blooms overhead. Inside of 48 hours with all guidance showing a solid hit from a moisture train directly from the TN valley has me not worried much at all. It's close man. It will snowing in 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 For those interested north of Baltimore. Here is the qpf for Westminster the last 3 GFS runs. 0Z:.17 6Z:.20 12Z:.25 Consistent improvement although not drastic. Temps during snow 14-16. .35 with those temps and you'll be golden for 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 As it drops down we get another inch of instability snow on Wed. lol Mount Holly mentioned this in their morning AFD. And I already had a 40% chance in my point/click this morning for Wed. They don't lag like Sterling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 At least we're not stuck in a redeveloper type situation. Or moisture starved but "possible" dynamic system that blooms overhead. Inside of 48 hours with all guidance showing a solid hit from a moisture train directly from the TN valley has me not worried much at all. It's close man. It will snowing in 36 hours.As others have said I really like the heavy stuff to our west and southwest. Always good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 We have been at this for ages so we know that is true, but i would say that is a 10% chance at this stage. We are 30 hours from onset and every model looks great, i would not be worried at all. It is just a question if we get 4" or 8", i would say closer to the 8". And snow with the temps in the low 20's is awesome. Yep, if this was pegged for Wednesday I'd be nervous, but time is running out to trend the wrong way or screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Really want one more good euro run. The best sign was the 51 ensemble mean member snowfall averaged 6.3 at Martin for 0z, solid numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yep, I was just commenting in general. This one is a really nice shift for us. What gfs are you guys looking at? Qpf for us is .2-.3 at the most. No way would you guys get 5" out of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 And I retarded? How are any of you northerners getting 5" snow out of .2 qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think the 12z GFS did justice to Bmore area as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 And I retarded? How are any of you northerners getting 5" snow out of .2 qpf? How about high ratios...with temps in the teens. That'll do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What gfs are you guys looking at? Qpf for us is .2-.3 at the most. No way would you guys get 5" out of that I don't have numbers but your total looks like more. Plus at your temps, 0.3 would go a long way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think the 12z GFS did justice to Bmore area as well... Wow, that shows us with 8"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just noticed the SREF plumes have DCA's mean at 7.5". Nice bump up from 03z. Sorry if this was already posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Really want one more good euro run. I want two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How about high ratios...with temps in the teens. That'll do it. 20:1 the entire storm? Hahaha, ok. Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow, that shows us with 8"? Yep! but I don't know what the difference between snowfall and surface snow depth is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Those snow maps are stupid. Just look at your precip total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 And I retarded? How are any of you northerners getting 5" snow out of .2 qpf? Looks to me like .25 qpf is your low end. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=051ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_051_precip_p48.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p48&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150215+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What gfs are you guys looking at? Qpf for us is .2-.3 at the most. No way would you guys get 5" out of that Probably a little more for us closer to the city, and with ratios it could be 4-5". I'm not too worried about exact output at this point. The trends matter the most and these storms tend to produce nice bands in the northern burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 And I retarded? How are any of you northerners getting 5" snow out of .2 qpf? BWI is .40 and Martin State Airport is .35. Westminster is .25. That would put Cockeysville roughly at .30. 5 inches is a little too ambitious but 4 is likely. For us 3-4 based on this run. We are extremely cold during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't have numbers but your total looks like more. Plus at your temps, 0.3 would go a long way I don't even get .3 from gfs. Gotta go south to Balt for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks to me like .25 qpf is your low end. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=051ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_051_precip_p48.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p48&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150215+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Around D.C. that's impressive qpf, imo ~.7 on the high side to the southeast? It's about time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 20:1 the entire storm? Hahaha, ok. Sure. I got exactly 5" in one event last winter(the one the produced virga/ flurries west of I-95) with a temp of 12, from <0.2 liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't even get .3 from gfs. Gotta go south to Balt for that I'm not really sure where you're at...north of Balt? It's hard to tell from those maps what totals are. I don't think its done coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Alright - for the folks that know and can do the forecasts.. what are the ratio thoughts.. 12:1 to 15:1 would be my thinking, but I am just thinking and know nothing really. So my thoughts are POINTLESS. surface temps are NOT the only thing that helps one know.. Probably play it safe with 12:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm not really sure where you're at...north of Balt? It's hard to tell from those maps what totals are. I don't think its done coming north. She is on the MD/PA line due north of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 BWI is .40 and Martin State Airport is .35. Westminster is .25. That would put Cockeysville roughly at .30. 5 inches is a little too ambitious but 4 is likely. For us 3-4 based on this run. We are extremely cold during the storm. I see the models too, we will not be cold enough for 20:1 the whole time. Some of the ridiculous 5" amounts being thrown around by people who are lucky to get .3 qpf is downright wish casting and ridiculous. I'll be lucky to see 3". Great ****ing storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm not really sure where you're at...north of Balt? It's hard to tell from those maps what totals are. I don't think its done coming north. That should be the takeaway, if you want to parse the minutias at this point thats fine, but with a possibility of a more favorable shift for her, I don't think I really care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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