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February 16-17 Storm Threat


WxUSAF

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This is mainly BS, may have been true 15 years ago but it isn't anymore. We have plenty of sampling that goes beyond our radiosonde network.

I remember your comments from last year. You don't even forecast operationally in that region. The sampling of obs is poor in the SW. It does make a difference!

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This run looks similar to some of GFS 's earlier in the week when we first started tracking this threat. If you recall there were several runs that showed a few inches of cold powder from the initial slug of moisture. I was hoping all along the models would key on this feature and bring it far enough north. Hopefully this will continue with future runs. Last night's Euro was actually pretty close to what today is showing. Not sure how juiced and further north this can get.

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We get tickled by the 3rd wave, Wednesday afternoon.  Assuming the storm progresses like this (doubtful lol), if the tertiary trough can dig more we might have an event Wednesday night?...right now it is a progressive light snow event that goes north of that, but it isn't that far from something.

Is this a likely scenario though? I thought there was talk of the likelihood that we would eventually end up with a consolidated storm.

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Thanks for confirming this. I've heard mets, even Wes, cast dubious light on this as well.

It's not BS. I assure you. For those mets that have operational forecast experience in those regions and not at a national center can tell you about upper cutoff lows and the sparcity of observations in those areas. Models do not handle it well.

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Anybody have an idea of what the Euro looks like around EZF......away from computer can't access my stuff

 

 

probably 4" on this run verbatim

 

Is this a likely scenario though? I thought there was talk of the likelihood that we would eventually end up with a consolidated storm.

 

i doubt it, but I honestly am not skilled enough to say one way or the other.  I do doubt that it has locked into a final solution in terms of details.

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