BristowWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I know its early, but just wanted to show before it gets to Tuesday evening. Hr 60 That looks like Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 2", maybe 3" for DC falls with the frontrunner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Screw it storm is moving fast. Hr 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 In the old thread, I swear to god I said "Watch the Euro crush us now that the GFS missed south". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 In the old thread, I swear to god I said "Watch the Euro crush us now that the GFS missed south". where did you come from and why are you posting all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I wonder if this will round the corner or more likely lead to a CMC like event Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 where did you come from and why are you posting all the time Can a new person not join the board and post? Or do I have to register myself with the meteorological superiors on here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Can a new person not join the board and post? Or do I have to register myself with the meteorological superiors on here? you should make better and more accurate posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I wonder if this will round the corner or more likely lead to a CMC like event Wednesday Feels like misses us and hooks around to get SNE is the likely answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not rounding the corner but better than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not rounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is mainly BS, may have been true 15 years ago but it isn't anymore. We have plenty of sampling that goes beyond our radiosonde network. I remember your comments from last year. You don't even forecast operationally in that region. The sampling of obs is poor in the SW. It does make a difference! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Sometimes it actually makes sense to let the model run, before declaring the final solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 EPS should be interesting this afternoon.... hope they agree with the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Sometimes it actually makes sense to let the model run, before declaring the final solution It would be nice to have a pbp by one person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It would be nice to have a pbp by one person. so far, doing a quick eyeball, 2", maybe a bit more falls with the frontrunner...the followup is wide right....but there may be something behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 so far, doing a quick eyeball, 2", maybe a bit more falls with the frontrunner...the followup is wide right....but there may be something behind it That's at odds with the snow maps from the previous page that show 4 inches for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This run looks similar to some of GFS 's earlier in the week when we first started tracking this threat. If you recall there were several runs that showed a few inches of cold powder from the initial slug of moisture. I was hoping all along the models would key on this feature and bring it far enough north. Hopefully this will continue with future runs. Last night's Euro was actually pretty close to what today is showing. Not sure how juiced and further north this can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thank god it shows something since I went with light snow likely late tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 We get tickled by the 3rd wave, Wednesday afternoon. Assuming the storm progresses like this (doubtful lol), if the tertiary trough can dig more we might have an event Wednesday night?...right now it is a progressive light snow event that goes north of that, but it isn't that far from something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That's at odds with the snow maps from the previous page that show 4 inches for DC good thing I actually have subscription maps, and I know how to read a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That's at odds with the snow maps from the previous page that show 4 inches for DC I never considered the front runner to do anything. Interesting and again tells us to stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Is it just me, or has the CMC been over suppressing storms a lot this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Anybody have an idea of what the Euro looks like around EZF......away from computer can't access my stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 We get tickled by the 3rd wave, Wednesday afternoon. Assuming the storm progresses like this (doubtful lol), if the tertiary trough can dig more we might have an event Wednesday night?...right now it is a progressive light snow event that goes north of that, but it isn't that far from something. Is this a likely scenario though? I thought there was talk of the likelihood that we would eventually end up with a consolidated storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thanks for confirming this. I've heard mets, even Wes, cast dubious light on this as well. It's not BS. I assure you. For those mets that have operational forecast experience in those regions and not at a national center can tell you about upper cutoff lows and the sparcity of observations in those areas. Models do not handle it well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 good thing I actually have subscription maps, and I know how to read a model. I hope you're not inferring that I don't know how to read a model. Haven't even seen the euro firsthand. Just stating the snow map differs in representing what you're stating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Temps are awfully cold during this event as shown on today's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Anybody have an idea of what the Euro looks like around EZF......away from computer can't access my stuff probably 4" on this run verbatim Is this a likely scenario though? I thought there was talk of the likelihood that we would eventually end up with a consolidated storm. i doubt it, but I honestly am not skilled enough to say one way or the other. I do doubt that it has locked into a final solution in terms of details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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