Fozz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Having it a bit slower and more extensive/heavier precip shield would be nice...I don't know if being much farther north is much of a necessity? But those two can usually go together. Those of us north of Baltimore could use another nudge north, DC is in great shape. Really looking forward to another storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hr 45 is 1"/hr rates from EZF to Phin including all of CMD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like LWX just lost the GFS. that's what they get for collaborating with WPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS is lulz in the temp department.... we are in the mid teens the entire storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Interesting run. It doesn't appear that it throws up as much moisture into the cold sector initially, then we in the cities cash in late. This run is not particularly great for our western friends. Well we know the GFS has a historical tendency to do that, but true the cities really cash in 42-48. I'm sure the FDK/OKV crew will be happier come tonight, still a decent run for them. Cold run as well with good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Those of us north of Baltimore could use another nudge north, DC is in great shape. Really looking forward to another storm It is still 5" for us, it is a great run imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This storm is definitely going into my mental cabinet from a disco matt and I had when it was at med-long leads. When models show unusual dual (or even triple at one point.lol) low progressions at long leads, more often than not it will verify as a single consolidated system. Models got the multiple pieces of energy idea right but it's impossible to get the progression right beyond a few days. Cool track so far. Twists turns every 12 hours. Absolutely agree. The question of whether the Baja low would eject, and what that would mean for a leading edge that seemed to be moving too fast, and the role of last night's front - watching all that resolve in unexpected ways has been fascinating. It also helps that the mystery seems to come with a happy ending! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 we are weenies and we know all about the north trend....why don't all mets know this AND figure it in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Those of us north of Baltimore could use another nudge north, DC is in great shape. Really looking forward to another storm Sorry, should have worded what I said more clearly. Meant that if we can get a more expansive (and heavier) precip shield and have the system a bit slower, that would be good for everyone. Whether that requires much farther north, I don't know, but obviously those are intertwined. (ETA: And yes, really looking forward to another storm that actually puts down some good stuff!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 DC is 18-19 during the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It is still 5" for us, it is a great run imo. Yep, I was just commenting in general. This one is a really nice shift for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 4 inches here with hardly any liquid. Westminster was the cutoff from the really good stuff. They got about 6 inches just 8 miles to my southwest. Sparky probably has it recorded. yep, 6.25" in the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This run even with conservative ratios is about 7 for BWI and areas around DC. A great run. One more etch north and its blackjack, jackpot, and pot smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Does anybody know if the americanwx model center uses 10:1 for their snowfall maps with the GFS? Sorry if OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It is still 5" for us, it is a great run imo.And the trend is your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 we are weenies and we know all about the north trend....why don't all mets know this AND figure it in? The cool thing is the track of the low can stay right where it is and the nw expanse of precip could easily verify further nw than the gfs is showing. With that track and the entire state of KY getting pummeled makes a strong argument for further nw expanse. There isn't some monster PV pacman chewing off the top. Nor is there a monster suppressive hp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 My Wunderground forecast is for a 30% chance of snow Monday Night. At least LWX has snow likely. People are going to be surprised when the Watch gets hoisted today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 And the trend is your friend. I am sure by 0Z tonight it is showing us with 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Winter storm watches should be coming out. We are within 48 hrs and there is some solid consensus on a 5 inch plus event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The cool thing is the track of the low can stay right where it is and the nw expanse of precip could easily verify further nw than the gfs is showing. With that track and the entire state of KY getting pummeled makes a strong argument for further nw expanse. There isn't some monster PV pacman chewing off the top. Nor is there a monster suppressive hp. Yes bob, those historical indicators such as KY getting hammered are good signs for us. Not to mention as you've said, we dont have a huge high to the north or a PV. The psuedo block to the NE up in Maritime Canada moves out earlier on with a slower progression of the surface feature. Its game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 DC is 18-19 during the storm That just seem so crazy...brrrrr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 polar vortex....coming to a neighborhood near you http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_060_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150215+12+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 An algorithm, if you will, for us out here, perhaps not for you guys out east, is if you see a wetter eastern Ky, you know your odds out here have improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I am sure by 0Z tonight it is showing us with 8". Or it could totally screw us. I'm a worrier...I go from being excited and hopeful to now the worry phase. It's sick, but that's how I've rolled living in this region. Trends are good, but with the way we've been done this winter, no guarantee the good times will continue tonight at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 polar vortex....coming to a neighborhood near you http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_060_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150215+12+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model As it drops down we get another inch of instability snow on Wed. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Really want one more good euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 For those interested north of Baltimore. Here is the qpf for Westminster the last 3 GFS runs. 0Z:.17 6Z:.20 12Z:.25 Consistent improvement although not drastic. Temps during snow 14-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 As it drops down we get another inch of instability snow on Wed. lol we're all unstable when it comes to snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Or it could totally screw us. I'm a worrier...I go from being excited and hopeful to now the worry phase. It's sick, but that's how I've rolled living in this region. Trends are good, but with the way we've been done this winter, no guarantee the good times will continue tonight at 0z. We have been at this for ages so we know that is true, but i would say that is a 10% chance at this stage. We are 30 hours from onset and every model looks great, i would not be worried at all. It is just a question if we get 4" or 8", i would say closer to the 8". And snow with the temps in the low 20's is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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