DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro had Westminster at almost .60. Easily implied 6-8. So it was pretty juiced. My bar is being set at 4 inches. I will be very happy with that and as of now it seems very reasonable. Yes thats actually my bar as well in Dundalk; feel as though its well within reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nice censorship going on here. All I did was respond to a question about where I live in Richmond, and why it would be unsurprising if we got nothing out of this storm, when it's our only solid chance at winter weather thus far... What does that have to do with this storm, the one that this thread is about? I didn't delete it, but I agree that it should have been. I told mods to get tighter with moderation on this thread. How is what you posted in anyway helpful to people who want information on THIS storm? Think about it. If you want, I can undelete it and put it in banter where it belongs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I never look at the CMC, but I sure do like the looks of this run for us out here. Not sure why, the RGEM is a lot better than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I usually focus more on the discussions out of LWX especially at this point. But to be honest, after having caught up in here from yesterday evening, I just wanted to get a quick peek if they changed things in the (point/click) forecast. Which is why I even bothered in the first place. I only mentioned what I saw because it seemed a bit surprising is all. I know you may not be necessarily aiming that comment at me, but thought I'd respond all the same...all good. it was a general comment...didn't even see your post....We don't really need Sterling...They have a very important function and they are talented mets, but we've got an enormous pool of talent here. People get too worried about what LWX says. If the 12z guidance holds, watches will go up for DC metro later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nice censorship going on here. All I did was respond to a question about where I live in Richmond, and why it would be unsurprising if we got nothing out of this storm, when it's our only solid chance at winter weather thus far... verbatim, RIC does pretty well on the NAM and if you guys switch to sleet, it's not for long and then you go back to snow note, however, that there may be warming in between the soundings, which are every 50 mb here are 2 links that should help http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kric.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kric.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not sure why, the RGEM is a lot better than the NAM. I know Yoda or someone has the 54 hr. RGEM map, but it looks like light snow continues after 48 hrs. on the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I know Yoda or someone has the 54 hr. RGEM map, but it looks like light snow continues after 48 hrs. on the RGEM I thought 54 hours was only on the off hour runs, 6z, 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Rgem looks great for dc but seems to have shifted the heavy snows south in nw va and Maryland. Gonna be close for those of us north of Balt. Seems models are tightening up the northern edge. True. I could see that being the first trend. Maybe more of a consolidation. I would think southern pa still in the game. Was such a trend north recently that maybe a little more could occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 it was a general comment...didn't even see your post....We don't really need Sterling...They have a very important function and they are talented mets, but we've got an enormous pool of talent here. People get too worried about what LWX says. If the 12z guidance holds, watches will go up for DC metro later... Yeah, figured it was probably a general comment, and you are correct that there's perhaps too much worry on what LWX says. There is indeed a lot of talent in here, and it's where I go first to see the latest. Sorry if this is technically banter, but wanted to reply at least. As for more on-topic. Yes, if the 12Z guidance holds well, things will move in a hurry at LWX I'm sure. Hopefully that will be the case. At least the 12Z NAM and RGEM gave the first salvo in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I know Yoda or someone has the 54 hr. RGEM map, but it looks like light snow continues after 48 hrs. on the RGEM RGEM goes to 54 only on the 06z and 18z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RGEM snow map based on 1:10 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I thought 54 hours was only on the off hour runs, 6z, 18z? You are correct Randy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I thought 54 hours was only on the off hour runs, 6z, 18z? RGEM goes to 54 only on the 06z and 18z runs d@mn, you guys are bigger weenies than me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 that answers that....there's still some light snow falling at 48 hrs. on the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This storm is definitely going into my mental cabinet from a disco matt and I had when it was at med-long leads. When models show unusual dual (or even triple at one point.lol) low progressions at long leads, more often than not it will verify as a single consolidated system. Models got the multiple pieces of energy idea right but it's impossible to get the progression right beyond a few days. Cool track so far. Twists turns every 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12Z GFS more amped to 00z and 06z through 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 1005mb SLP in C MS/AL border at 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12Z GFS more amped to 00z and 06z through 21 It'd gonna be north,...just a matter of how much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not over yet, but this has been one of the most interesting storms I've tracked in quite some time. Tremendous learning experience so far. Why do you think these dual low progressions end up verifying as a single system? Timing issues? The most important lesson to be learned is that you can't speak in absolute terms 72 hours out. Too many on here do it way too often even though some of them know better. There is no such thing as can't happen based on guidance 3-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Insane. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021512&time=INSTANT&var=SRATEI&hour=039 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 HR 39 precip widespread Much more Amped to 06z ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It'd gonna be north,...just a matter of how much yep, another tick up in heights at 30 hrs. and a hair slower than 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12Z GFS is looking like another positive shift north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS is setting us up for our file 25 mile north home stretch shift at 0z to bullseye the area like old times. Great run in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Having it a bit slower and more extensive/heavier precip shield would be nice...I don't know if being much farther north is much of a necessity? But those two can usually go together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 DC is at or over 0.5" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NW edge of precip field looking healthier this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Interesting run. It doesn't appear that it throws up as much moisture into the cold sector initially, then we in the cities cash in late. This run is not particularly great for our western friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS is setting us up for our file 25 mile north home stretch shift at 0z to bullseye the area like old times. Great run in my eyes. very possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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