HighStakes Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yup, story of our winter. Storm is too north or too south Sitting on hot coals and sweating bullets up here. Looks like we are fringed again on the Mason Dixon like we did in March of last year. Maybe we make up with ratios. Either way I hope Baltimore and DC proper get smashed. Be nice to see the office closed in town. Don't be too concerned yet. Even though it's light the precip field stretches well north of us so we are not even close to the northern fringe. The driest model gives us .20 and the wettest is over .60. as long as the snow growth is fine we will do the best with ratios. Don't expect 20-1, but 15-1 is likely. As long as the models stay about where they are now I think were good for an average around 4-5 inches. This is not the type storm that shuts us out as DC gets 4-5. At least I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The "winter" so far has been a couple of measly clippers and rain. What is your seasonal total so far? I recall the 1/30/2010 storm not being much for the M/D line... while those of us a little further south really cashed in on that band that developed in the northern burbs of Baltimore. Still have no idea how far north this comes, but I think you and I are good for at least 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's also sort of amusing how everyone in this thread claims north trend, while everyone in the southeast winter storm thread claim south trend. Discrepancies (*cough* bias *cough*) abound. Yeah, looks like the southerners definitely have a bias on this one. Thanks for the update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 see my edited post....i think you're fine...you'll probably end up in a secondary un-modeled QPF max and beat people 50-100 miles to your southWhat causes that nw fringe band is the combo of convergence with the high on the nw edge of the Ccb and high ratios. It could very well happen again but not sure we have the right high or thermal profile this time. But 3-5" up here like the nam shows followed by arctic cold is nothing to sneeze at anyways plus the northward adjustment may not be over. I think dc is safe though either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 lol...the NAM shifted well north and the EURO gave you both 6"... 6" is a stretch in the Euro, but thanks for responding. Hope you and Randy had fun and good luck tomorrow. I expect rooftop pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Any guesses as to why the NWS is siding with the southern camp at this point? THIS KEEPS THE LOW WELL S OF THE FCST AREA. IN THIS CASE SUCH A TRACK REMOVES QUSTN OF P-TYPE - IT WOULD ONLY BE SNOW. BUT ALSO THE TRACK MAY BE SO FAR S THAT MID ATLC WL BE ON THE RLTV FRINGES OF THE STORM.... HV LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TOTALS BUT BLV THESE WOULD BE LGT. Snow map also has everyone in <1 except for the far southern portion of the CWA. I've noticed they are slow to adjust to new trends. Several storms they were slow to lower snow forecasts when guidance was shifting bad. This time perhaps they are just slow to up them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I recall the 1/30/2010 storm not being much for the M/D line... while those of us a little further south really cashed in on that band that developed in the northern burbs of Baltimore. Still have no idea how far north this comes, but I think you and I are good for at least 3-6". 4 inches here with hardly any liquid. Westminster was the cutoff from the really good stuff. They got about 6 inches just 8 miles to my southwest. Sparky probably has it recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RGEM looks a tad farther S so far at 12 hours compared to 00z @ 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I've noticed they are slow to adjust to new trends. Several storms they were slow to lower snow forecasts when guidance was shifting bad. This time perhaps they are just slow to up them. And besides, what he posted is old info anyway. They explained in the HPC discussion anyway, that they believed things would have to be moved northward, but didn't want to after only one cycle because of run to run inconsistencies the past 24 hours and they didn't wanna look like they were flip flopping. If the other 12z guidance holds, expect major changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 6" is a stretch in the Euro, but thanks for responding. Hope you and Randy had fun and good luck tomorrow. I expect rooftop pics not saying the euro is right, but it isn't a stretch at all...Euro gives you 6" easy all day every day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If i get enough from this to match or exceed my season total of 4.1" then i will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Uh wows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow guys...nobody comments on the 6z NAM? Major shift. 24 hr precip at 18z Tues. 0z top, 6z bottom g] Lol, i did a pbp of it but I guess you don't bother to read my posts . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RGEM looks a tad farther S so far at 12 hours compared to 00z @ 24 Low placement is almost exactly the same. Precip shield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Oh my Was just about to post that! So it has roughly a 5-7pm arrival time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 And besides, what he posted is old info anyway. They explained in the HPC discussion anyway, that they believed things would have to be moved northward, but didn't want to after only one cycle because of run to run inconsistencies the past 24 hours and they didn't wanna look like they were flip flopping. If the other 12z guidance holds, expect major changes. We have most of the guidance they have plus a huge aggregate of knowledge, with none of the important responsibility that they do. I like reading the forecast discussions and the general guidance, but not sure why anyone cares that much about point and clicks and the such... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Balto city south in heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ptype: snow Ratios: high Surface stickage: everywhere Time of impact: favorable Tuesday closing and delays: likely Let's start to lock this trend in by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 LIKE X10000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I was just comparing 500mb on the RGEM, it ticked south, regardless its a huge hit for you guys im excited for ya....RGEM usually is a tad too amped in its 48-54 range, so it is coming back to earth a touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Rgem looks great for dc but seems to have shifted the heavy snows south in nw va and Maryland. Gonna be close for those of us north of Balt. Seems models are tightening up the northern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That's two big shifts since 0z.NAM QPF for MRB the past three runs:00Z- 0.00" 06Z- 0.11" 12Z- 0.30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nice censorship going on here. All I did was respond to a question about where I live in Richmond, and why it would be unsurprising if we got nothing out of this storm, when it's our only solid chance at winter weather thus far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 not saying the euro is right, but it isn't a stretch at all...Euro gives you 6" easy all day every day.... Ok, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 We have most of the guidance they have plus a huge aggregate of knowledge, with none of the important responsibility that they do. I like reading the forecast discussions and the general guidance, but not sure why anyone cares that much about point and clicks and the such... I usually focus more on the discussions out of LWX especially at this point. But to be honest, after having caught up in here from yesterday evening, I just wanted to get a quick peek if they changed things in the (point/click) forecast. Which is why I even bothered in the first place. I only mentioned what I saw because it seemed a bit surprising is all. I know you may not be necessarily aiming that comment at me, but thought I'd respond all the same...all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Rgem looks great for dc but seems to have shifted the heavy snows south in nw va and Maryland. Gonna be close for those of us north of Balt. Seems models are tightening up the northern edge. Yep, the overall setup stil argues for ticks to the N, it isn't like we have some overwhelming H to the north, its all about the strength of the shortwave, which usually trends stronger as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 6" is a stretch in the Euro, but thanks for responding. Hope you and Randy had fun and good luck tomorrow. I expect rooftop pics Euro had Westminster at almost .60. Easily implied 6-8. So it was pretty juiced. My bar is being set at 4 inches. I will be very happy with that and as of now it seems very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RIC gets in trouble above 850mb Got it. Thanks for the response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I never look at the CMC, but I sure do like the looks of this run for us out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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