clueless Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Absolutely exactly where I want to be within 48 hr of a storm, when we get that little north shift well be bulls eyed Well for mby I hope so. It's looks darn cold. That is the best thing about this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Matt again, away from computer, how's it look around EZF Good. That yellow snow area is yours. I like this a lot. Gives us some breathing room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Matt , away from computer, how's it look around EZF .75" qpf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sorry Richmond and central Virginia peps but for my location i need another 50 plus mile north tick to feel better. Yesterday we kinda got hosed with the frontal passage snows. Got maybe 1 inch or so. Cecil county has a deflector shield up or something, was higher amounts all a round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sitting on hot coals and sweating bullets up here. Looks like we are fringed again on the Mason Dixon like we did in March of last year. Maybe we make up with ratios. Either way I hope Baltimore and DC proper get smashed. Be nice to see the office closed in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Prob go above 10:1 as is. 12:1-15:1 maybe. Going higher is a little weenie but not impossible. I was going to say 13:1 or 14:1 is certainly within the realm of ratios for DC and everything will stick immediately which is nice. I won't have to look at the wet pavement while my grass/mulch gets coated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Matt , away from computer, how's it look around EZF good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 At these temps, even I don't mind big totals. Easy to clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 good you should have been a city planner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The trend this winter has been New England hits while everyone else gets little or nothing. Soon, you may be out of it, too...if it keeps moving north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 would kill for a 1/30/10 type storm again, especially with the cold week on tap.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 one more tick north and the best UVV's will be right over DCA/BWI hours 42-48 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_042_700_rh_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=700_rh_ht&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150215+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 As a temporary RIC resident, I will say everyone in the Mid-Atl, save for southeastern VA has had some snow this winter. RIC has only had a dusting. We're due. It's been over four years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 would kill for a 1/30/10 type storm again, especially with the cold week on tap.. I can tell you that 36 hours out, this one looks much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not really sure the last time EZF had a storm with temps in teens to low 20s.....maybe 1/2010......was living in Arlington for that one, ended up with about 6....how was it down this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 LWX seems to be going really conservative in the metro area, at least just going by the point-and-click. Even more so than what I saw yesterday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's also sort of amusing how everyone in this thread claims north trend, while everyone in the southeast winter storm thread claim south trend. Discrepancies (*cough* bias *cough*) abound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yup, story of our winter. Storm is too north or too south My WAG is that it isn't done coming north. The brick wall of cold can often be over modeled...as in 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's also sort of amusing how everyone in this thread claims north trend, while everyone in the southeast winter storm thread claim south trend. Discrepancies (*cough* bias *cough*) abound. I'd have to say they are delusional if they're claiming that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's also sort of amusing how everyone in this thread claims north trend, while everyone in the southeast winter storm thread claim south trend. Discrepancies (*cough* bias *cough*) abound. To be honest, the people in the SE forum are mostly wishcasting. There has been an undeniable north trend in the past few model runs on almost all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 definitely could get 1/30/10 type ratios with this one Prob go above 10:1 as is. 12:1-15:1 maybe. Going higher is a little weenie but not impossible. I was going to say 13:1 or 14:1 is certainly within the realm of ratios for DC and everything will stick immediately which is nice. I won't have to look at the wet pavement while my grass/mulch gets coated. A storm like 1/30/10, I always wonder if those liquid totals are too low. We know at DCA they are but even at IAD maybe...I think IAD was 15:1?, DCA 20:1...lol....Someone can confirm. I always worry about poor snow growth. Luckily we don't waste any QPF. I think once you can come up with a QPF number...and everyone does that a different way. A dry, fluffy snow will pile up nicely. 12-14:1 seems reasonable....so 0.5" would yield 6-7"...of course someone is going to get banded and get more within that QPF area...I might include 8" on the high end of a 0.5" QPF forecast for this one given potential high ratios, and jackpotting....Perhaps someone can shed light on the snow growth layers as we get closer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I would love to see winter storm watches posted later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 LWX seems to be going really conservative in the metro area, at least just going by the point-and-click. Even more so than what I saw yesterday evening. You know they don't change forecasts ever time a new model runs. Looking at their products right now isn't going to excite you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 LWX has 1-2" for DC itself, and a max of 7.3" and a min of 0.0". lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The trend this winter has been New England hits while everyone else gets little or nothing. Soon, you may be out of it, too...if it keeps moving north... We have a deflector shield just south of EZF for these situations. You are right that the north trend can stop but inside 36 hours I would think we have to be getting close to a consensus. Hopefully you are on the north side of RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Guys these posts about LWX snow forecasts are pointless. They have set times for updating...especially this far from the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I would love to see winter storm watches posted later today. They will be. The current forecasts are conservative because of the model mayhem of the past few days. If the 12z suite goes as planned, watches will be hoisted with the afternoon package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 would kill for a 1/30/10 type storm again, especially with the cold week on tap.. Me too. For that 1/30/10 deal I actually drove down to my parents' in Calvert where 6-10" was predicted, vs. just 2-4 for Germantown. They got 7.5" and Germantown got 7". LOL 120-mile round trip for 1/2"! It was fun though. Like others say, I'd rather be needing a little more north trend than hoping for one to come south. I really like seeing all those WS watches and warnings to our WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You know they don't change forecasts ever time a new model runs. Looking at their products right now isn't going to excite you. I am well aware of that, and I was not looking to be "excited" by what they say. No need to be condescending. I was just commenting that they were actually more bullish (relatively speaking) the last time I looked at things last night compared to this morning, even with the latest model shifts and trends since 00Z. That said, they have hedged toward the earlier time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sitting on hot coals and sweating bullets up here. Looks like we are fringed again on the Mason Dixon like we did in March of last year. Maybe we make up with ratios. Either way I hope Baltimore and DC proper get smashed. Be nice to see the office closed in town. Yup, story of our winter. Storm is too north or too south lol...the NAM shifted well north and the EURO gave you both 6"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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