Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 now we gotta work on getting the yellow snowmap into our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM came north...not a ton...but north... definitely more than a nudge...marked shift north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nam is north at hr. 45. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM/2015021512/USA_APCPI3_sfc_045.gif Its much easier to just give the full link as it appears in the searchbox above, as instantweathermaps.com doesn't allow you to hotlink images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You know it is still very possible for the area to get screwed. for you I suppose...I wouldn't want to live 80 miles north of DC...good thing you don't live in my area honestly...I think you're in decent shape for this one....NAM which was furthest south now gives you ~4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 now we gotta work on getting the yellow snowmap into our area Doesn't look like too much work is necessary. Nice jump from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 quick mover on NAM...5pm - 6am for DC.....6"?....looks like about 0.5" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Doesn't look like too much work is necessary. Nice jump from 6z. namsno.JPG Ahh nice. Need the gif. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Right on the northern edge of the good stuff at 48 hr.....IDEAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nice VV's on the NAM hr 45 which is a good panel for a lot of us. Was another decent north shift this run, so I'm with Bob, wanting to see the RGEM so we can lock this up. Precip starts at h33, thats the best part of all this. Good day ahead I'd bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Doesn't look like too much work is necessary. Nice jump from 6z. namsno.JPG These snowmaps might actually be applicable in this rare case where we are all snow...and it's plenty cold upstairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Its much easier to just give the full link as it appears in the searchbox above, as instantweathermaps.com doesn't allow you to hotlink images. Ok, thanks. Didn't realize that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 quick mover on NAM...5pm - 6am for DC.....6"?....looks like about 0.5" QPF DCA-.52" BWI-.40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 for you I suppose...I wouldn't want to live 80 miles north of DC...good thing you don't live in my area What are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah, uh, the north trend can stop now. Confused as to why so much mixing comes in to RIC. 850s and surface are both ridiculously cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow. I shut everything down yesterday evening and called it a night after the power cut out a few times. Just spent the last while catching up in here, along with 2 cups of coffee (time for decaf!). Nice changes, and I like how there's some growing consensus for at least an advisory-level snow or low end warning at this point. So...looks like it's the first wave that's become our shot if I read the past 6 or so pages correctly? I was going kind of fast to catch up. At any rate, from what I saw the Euro is perhaps the high end (whoda thunk that just yesterday?), followed by the Ukie, then the GFS and NAM (I guess the RGEM and Canadian are in there too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 One interesting (and perhaps amusing) thing about the NAM is DC is 15-17 during the storm....gonna be a cold one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 These snowmaps might actually be applicable in this rare case where we are all snow...and it's plenty cold upstairs. I love the setup. It's the non-worrying and radar extrapolation kind with a great column. Tomorrow is going to be fun. Everyone will be thinking "incoming!" at the same time. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What are you talking about? see my edited post....i think you're fine...you'll probably end up in a secondary un-modeled QPF max and beat people 50-100 miles to your south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Lol. Totally different storm, but that snow map reminds me of the models for the 3/3/14 event. You know what happened then. The thought crossed my mind when I saw that map, but it is a different situation. I think someone earlier remarked that last year, we had an Arctic front move in along with the precip, and it dried out more quickly to the north. Here, we've got a system moving from the southeast into an existing air mass. On that same subject, I've heard anecdotally that the NAM has sharp cut-offs on precip a lot of times. I have no idea if that's necessarily true in general, or if it's correct in that regard. Anyone have input? Obviously it was right last year, but I don't know about other situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 One interesting (and perhaps amusing) thing about the NAM is DC is 15-17 during the storm....gonna be a cold one definitely could get 1/30/10 type ratios with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Absolutely exactly where I want to be within 48 hr of a storm, when we get that little north shift well be bulls eyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 for you I suppose...I wouldn't want to live 80 miles north of DC...good thing you don't live in my area honestly...I think you're in decent shape for this one....NAM which was furthest south now gives you ~4" Matt , away from computer, how's it look around EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 These snowmaps might actually be applicable in this rare case where we are all snow...and it's plenty cold upstairs.Prob go above 10:1 as is. 12:1-15:1 maybe. Going higher is a little weenie but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 see my edited post....i think you're fine...you'll probably end up in a secondary un-modeled QPF max and beat people 50-100 miles to your south Thanks. I am not too worried from a MBY perspective since you know I always talk about the northern and western fringe bands. I was more feeling that the rug could still pull out entirely on the whole area with some crazy bad Euro run today or tonight. Just normal worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 definitely more than a nudge...marked shift northThat's two big shifts since 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 DCA-.52" BWI-.40" thanks...once we get some QPF consensus, I'd probably forecast 12:1 to be conservative....others will go higher...of course there are always unmodeled bands of higher QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 My real goal is to at least get 3.9 with this one to put me at 15" for the season, wouldn't be bad at 2/17, because I'm pretty bullish on at least another event in feb and 1 in march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I asked, but I don't think the cold push is quite what was modeled. That has to play a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Any guesses as to why the NWS is siding with the southern camp at this point? THIS KEEPS THE LOW WELL S OF THE FCST AREA. IN THIS CASESUCH A TRACK REMOVES QUSTN OF P-TYPE - IT WOULD ONLY BE SNOW. BUTALSO THE TRACK MAY BE SO FAR S THAT MID ATLC WL BE ON THE RLTVFRINGES OF THE STORM.... HV LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TOTALSBUT BLV THESE WOULD BE LGT. Snow map also has everyone in <1 except for the far southern portion of the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah, uh, the north trend can stop now. Confused as to why so much mixing comes in to RIC. 850s and surface are both ridiculously cold. RIC gets in trouble above 850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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