pythium Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Take a look at the lwx nmm it is the firtst of the 12z models to come out and moved north quite a bit, looks good for almost everyone. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/localmodels.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just for fun, the rgem has 1 inch/hr rates coming into DC at hr 48 and spreading northward. Maybe this Nam run will give it some support, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks good. Maybe not this run, but this could end up being real good. Big slug of moisture south west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM is a good step towards EURO, it is still adjusting, wouldn't take anything from it except that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Start time on the NAM is similar to the Euro - tomorrow evening (7pm). I like that "tomorrow" is now included in start times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Start time is still around 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Start time is still around 7pm It's like 5pm for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM, just like the Euro and RGEM, have the storm in central Alabama Monday 7PM, so there is incredible model agreement between those 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's like 5pm for DC Are you sure Matt? Because the maps I have show...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thanks Bob. I think there will be some snow on the ground around here come Tuesday as well. That was the gist of my question. Whiff unlikely. Good. After the responses I thought I misread your post. We've been worried about a complete whiff and that is off the table. Mappy, I highly doubt this is only a 2" storm for you. That's prob the worst case scenario. This isn't a moisture starved clipper covering 3 square miles. There will be a lot of happy people mon night-tues morn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Are you sure Matt? Because the maps I have show...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Are you sure Matt? Because the maps I have show...... 5pm looks right to me as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM, just like the Euro and RGEM, have the storm in central Alabama Monday 7PM, so there is incredible model agreement between those 3La la lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 5pm looks right to me as well. I know..that reply was a slight inside joke..it does start a little after hour 33, 5p..Matt's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I know..that reply was a slight inside joke..it does start a little after hour 33, 5p..Matt's right I'm a little slow today. Stayed up really late and probably drank too much last night. NAM looks fine as an opening act. More interested in the RGEM. It's been on fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 At hour 42 it's pretty light precipitation, with heaviest in SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 A foot of snow for almost the entire state of KY. That can't have happened too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM came north...not a ton...but north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm a little slow today. Stayed up really late and probably drank too much last night. NAM looks fine as an opening act. More interested in the RGEM. It's been on fire. The RGEM was a solid and big hit. I hope it stays the course. Get the GFS and Euro on it and we're off to the races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nam certainly is frigid no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't think 12z runs are critical. 2-4/3-6 is mostly locked up. Tracking upside isn't nearly as nerve racking as a whiff. You know it is still very possible for the area to get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nice run. I'd like it a little further north but it's solid for most everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 At hour 42 it's pretty light precipitation, with heaviest in SE VA. Prolly should wait another panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 7" and still falling at 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You know it is still very possible for the area to get screwed. That is still within the goal post of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You know it is still very possible for the area to get screwed. It's always possible but I'm a worrier and I really don't have many worries at all. This is our wheelhouse. A southern track storm where KY gets crushed almost always snows on us. And we're inside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_045.gif Lol. Totally different storm, but that snow map reminds me of the models for the 3/3/14 event. You know what happened then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 man, I feel for those guys in NE Tennessee who were supposed to get 20 inches of snow based on the modes from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_045.gif turn that map upside down, and that's what we've seen all winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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