cae Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just catching up with what happened last night. Awesome. It looks like the trend of amping the first wave continued through the night. Let's hope it doesn't get too amped. Well GGEM certainly is nice. But it's the GGEM. And it's been pretty awful this winter. I would just like to lock on the RGEM right now and call it a day. It has performed very well this winter. And if it is right. We all are going to get hit hard. I've seen a lot of comments like the ones above. FWIW here are my thoughts on the RGEM / GGEM this winter. As I posted earlier the GGEM within 48 hours usually looks a lot like the RGEM, which has had a pretty good winter. For example, based on the 06z RGEM, there's a good bet the GGEM is coming north as well. The GGEM seems to be pretty good within about 72 hours this winter -- it did well with both the blizzard and the flizzard in that range. Outside that range it has had some serious problems. I'm not sure why, but it seemed to be better at longer ranges last winter. The UKMET has been doing very well this winter. It has always had good verification scores but a reputation for handling winter storms around here poorly. This might be the winter that it loses that reputation. Looking at recent verification scores, it has been clearly the #2 model this year (with GFS #3 and GGEM #4), and at times it has been close to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 These are cases we can play the SNE role. Sorry Richmond. Slightly less diplomatic response lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Glad I'm not the only one that feels like Wakefield is mighty conservative and somewhat slow to react. Living in SBY it often makes sense to read discos from AKQ, LWX, and Mount Holly and sort of blend them. Mount Holly's in particular are night and day to Wakefield's. Yeah, so, this morning's forecasts are a perfect example. Wakefield is calling for less than two in SBY and the disco seems to think this is more of a fast slider. Mount Holly says significant snow and has 3-4 inches in lower Delaware. AKQ won't bite until 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 These are cases we can play the SNE role. Sorry Richmond. Don't worry, we're used to playing that game...and usually losing. Jan 30, 2010 was a nice storm for both, though Richmond did considerably better. I'd take a repeat in an instant If I recall, that storm was something of a late bloomer for you guys. We ended up with 10-14 with DC/Balt progged at only 1-3 until really late. It ended up over performing big time for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just catching up with what happened last night. Awesome. It looks like the trend of amping the first wave continued through the night. Let's hope it doesn't get too amped. I've seen a lot of comments like the ones above. FWIW here are my thoughts on the RGEM / GGEM this winter. As I posted earlier the GGEM within 48 hours usually looks a lot like the RGEM, which has had a pretty good winter. For example, based on the 06z RGEM, there's a good bet the GGEM is coming north as well. The GGEM seems to be pretty good within about 72 hours this winter -- it did well with both the blizzard and the flizzard in that range. Outside that range it has had some serious problems. I'm not sure why, but it seemed to be better at longer ranges last winter. The UKMET has been doing very well this winter. It has always had good verification scores but a reputation for handling winter storms around here poorly. This might be the winter that it loses that reputation. Looking at recent verification scores, it has been clearly the #2 model this year (with GFS #3 and GGEM #4), and at times it has been close to the Euro. And despite those verification scores I read in LWX discussion the Winter Weather folks prefer GFS solution. So who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I guess the question is...how many times in the past have both RIC and DCA been the jackpot in the same storm? My guess is not often so here we go...one will win and one will not win...but all will play Richmond is a miserable snow hole. But I suppose they are due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Since y'all like looking at the SREFs, the 9z snow plume means are a pretty consistent 6-8 inches for MD, N VA, DE. Even Richmond is at 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Richmond is a miserable snow hole. But I suppose they are due. Ric can have the jackpot in the next storm, our promise. Let us have this one. Take a bad situation off their hands. Ric your storm, which is next, I'm betting it'll be bigger and better than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Since y'all like looking at the SREFs, the 9z snow plume means are a pretty consistent 6-8 inches for MD, N VA, DE. Even Richmond is at 6. I'm surprised we're "only" at 6 (which would be great for this area). I guess 850s are sketchy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. I just don't pretend I am always right like some try too. I like that Mother Nature smacks me around sometimes to keep me humble. Anyways the models have trended towards putting everything into the lead wave and perhaps the storm in front is slightly weaker. That's allowing it to amp up and even slows enough to get some h5 support. It obviously has a shot now I was wrong about that. I still think the second wave would have been better positioned to really bomb out as the trough really digs in wed but the lead wave is obviously the one to watch now. hey bro, I thought you were still awake I wanted your thoughts; as long as it snows it's all good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ric can have the jackpot in the next storm, our promise. Let us have this one. Take a bad situation off their hands. Ric your storm, which is next, I'm betting it'll be bigger and better than this one. I'd be careful with that. The storm that came after our last jackpot in 1/2010 happened to be a nice little storm for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I guess the question is...how many times in the past have both RIC and DCA been the jackpot in the same storm? My guess is not often so here we go...one will win and one will not win...but all will play true dat in the late 70's I learned that when it changed from snow to something else, BWI would do well; I used to listen to this trucker program on WRVA to get hourly obs I'm not saying it's not possible for both locations to score, but the fact is if both locations stay all snow, then somebody gets a lot less the bliz of 3/1/80 comes to mind as one of te storms where we were both all snow, but they received well over a foot and BWI got 4-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't think 12z runs are critical. 2-4/3-6 is mostly locked up. Tracking upside isn't nearly as nerve racking as a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Since y'all like looking at the SREFs, the 9z snow plume means are a pretty consistent 6-8 inches for MD, N VA, DE. Even Richmond is at 6. Yea as I was saying its a pretty damn solid run, a good start to today's runs overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm surprised we're "only" at 6 (which would be great for this area). I guess 850s are sketchy? Its like 6.25" fwiw. And looking at the plumes there is about a 40% chance of some sleet mixing in and 20% it could change to freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I feel like after the 12z euro comes out we will all have a much better handle on this storm, although it looks like we are already nearing a final solution. A few slight changes possible at 0z, but I really feel like the 12z runs are gonna really shed some light on what the final solution is going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't think 12z runs are critical. 2-4/3-6 is mostly locked up. Tracking upside isn't nearly as nerve racking as a whiff.Soon it becomes time to ensure we get Tuesday off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I wish there was some way that Richmond AND DCA could both be winners in a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't think 12z runs are critical. 2-4/3-6 is mostly locked up. Tracking upside isn't nearly as nerve racking as a whiff. Speak for yourself. I'd like another north shift so I get more than two inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z is important but 00z puts us 24 hours before the event. Let's see where it goes today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Speak for yourself. I'd like another north shift so I get more than two inches This...oh yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This...oh yesWhen you guys end up with a yellow band parked over you for hours prepare for trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You guys think it may be important how the cold performs today and tonight? A little underperformer might open the door a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't think 12z runs are critical. 2-4/3-6 is mostly locked up. Tracking upside isn't nearly as nerve racking as a whiff. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Can't predict what it's going to do, but I can tell you that the NAM is a little more amped out in front vs. 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM a touch slower and definitely more amped. going to come north again this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 When you guys end up with a yellow band parked over you for hours prepare for trolling. Hasn't happened all winter, don't expect it to happen Monday/Tuesday. Enjoy your jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12Z NAM is a little slower, and I think that's a good thing because it lets the SE Canada vort more time to get out of the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 More amped. Slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't think 12z runs are critical. 2-4/3-6 is mostly locked up. Tracking upside isn't nearly as nerve racking as a whiff. Thanks Bob. I think there will be some snow on the ground around here come Tuesday as well. That was the gist of my question. Whiff unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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