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February 16-17 Storm Threat


WxUSAF

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Just catching up with what happened last night.  Awesome.  It looks like the trend of amping the first wave continued through the night.  Let's hope it doesn't get too amped.

 

Well GGEM certainly is nice.  But it's the GGEM.  And it's been pretty awful this winter.

 

I would just like to lock on the RGEM right now and call it a day. It has performed very well this winter. And if it is right. We all are going to get hit hard.

 

I've seen a lot of comments like the ones above.  FWIW here are my thoughts on the RGEM / GGEM this winter.  As I posted earlier the GGEM within 48 hours usually looks a lot like the RGEM, which has had a pretty good winter.  For example, based on the 06z RGEM, there's a good bet the GGEM is coming north as well.  The GGEM seems to be pretty good within about 72 hours this winter -- it did well with both the blizzard and the flizzard in that range.  Outside that range it has had some serious problems.  I'm not sure why, but it seemed to be better at longer ranges last winter.

 

The UKMET has been doing very well this winter.  It has always had good verification scores but a reputation for handling winter storms around here poorly.  This might be the winter that it loses that reputation.  Looking at recent verification scores, it has been clearly the #2 model this year (with GFS #3 and GGEM #4), and at times it has been close to the Euro. 

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Glad I'm not the only one that feels like Wakefield is mighty conservative and somewhat slow to react. Living in SBY it often makes sense to read discos from AKQ, LWX, and Mount Holly and sort of blend them. Mount Holly's in particular are night and day to Wakefield's.

Yeah, so, this morning's forecasts are a perfect example. Wakefield is calling for less than two in SBY and the disco seems to think this is more of a fast slider. Mount Holly says significant snow and has 3-4 inches in lower Delaware. AKQ won't bite until 12z.

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These are cases we can play the SNE role. Sorry Richmond.

Don't worry, we're used to playing that game...and usually losing.

Jan 30, 2010 was a nice storm for both, though Richmond did considerably better. I'd take a repeat in an instant

If I recall, that storm was something of a late bloomer for you guys. We ended up with 10-14 with DC/Balt progged at only 1-3 until really late. It ended up over performing big time for you.

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Just catching up with what happened last night.  Awesome.  It looks like the trend of amping the first wave continued through the night.  Let's hope it doesn't get too amped.

 

 

 

I've seen a lot of comments like the ones above.  FWIW here are my thoughts on the RGEM / GGEM this winter.  As I posted earlier the GGEM within 48 hours usually looks a lot like the RGEM, which has had a pretty good winter.  For example, based on the 06z RGEM, there's a good bet the GGEM is coming north as well.  The GGEM seems to be pretty good within about 72 hours this winter -- it did well with both the blizzard and the flizzard in that range.  Outside that range it has had some serious problems.  I'm not sure why, but it seemed to be better at longer ranges last winter.

 

The UKMET has been doing very well this winter.  It has always had good verification scores but a reputation for handling winter storms around here poorly.  This might be the winter that it loses that reputation.  Looking at recent verification scores, it has been clearly the #2 model this year (with GFS #3 and GGEM #4), and at times it has been close to the Euro.

And despite those verification scores I read in LWX discussion the Winter Weather folks prefer GFS solution. So who knows.

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Richmond is a miserable snow hole. But I suppose they are due.

Ric can have the jackpot in the next storm, our promise. Let us have this one. Take a bad situation off their hands. Ric your storm, which is next, I'm betting it'll be bigger and better than this one.

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This wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. I just don't pretend I am always right like some try too. I like that Mother Nature smacks me around sometimes to keep me humble. Anyways the models have trended towards putting everything into the lead wave and perhaps the storm in front is slightly weaker. That's allowing it to amp up and even slows enough to get some h5 support. It obviously has a shot now I was wrong about that. I still think the second wave would have been better positioned to really bomb out as the trough really digs in wed but the lead wave is obviously the one to watch now.

hey bro, I thought you were still awake

I wanted your thoughts; as long as it snows it's all good

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Ric can have the jackpot in the next storm, our promise. Let us have this one. Take a bad situation off their hands. Ric your storm, which is next, I'm betting it'll be bigger and better than this one.

I'd be careful with that. The storm that came after our last jackpot in 1/2010 happened to be a nice little storm for you guys.

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I guess the question is...how many times in the past have both RIC and DCA been the jackpot in the same storm? My guess is not often so here we go...one will win and one will not win...but all will play

true dat

in the late 70's I learned that when it changed from snow to something else, BWI would do well; I used to listen to this trucker program on WRVA to get hourly obs

I'm not saying it's not possible for both locations to score, but the fact is if both locations stay all snow, then somebody gets a lot less

the bliz of 3/1/80 comes to mind as one of te storms where we were both all snow, but they received well over a foot and BWI got 4-5"

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I feel like after the 12z euro comes out we will all have a much better handle on this storm, although it looks like we are already nearing a final solution. A few slight changes possible at 0z, but I really feel like the 12z runs are gonna really shed some light on what the final solution is going to be.

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