aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The 6z members are a bit north of those at 0z. I know people say don't use them but it has to mean something. But we all should remember that at 18z yesterday we basically had squat. Yeah...but as you know and I...there have been quite a few events this year...granted rainers...where the western cutoff of the precip shield has been quite dramatic. I can see all of us getting in on this one but as I mentioned a few days ago...Norfolk sure looks nice right now if the temps cooperate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah...but as you know and I...there have been quite a few events this year...granted rainers...where the western cutoff of the precip shield has been quite dramatic. I can see a,, of us getting in on this one but as I mentioned a few days ago...Norfolk sure looks nice right now if the temps cooperate And I'll bet people on the southern end can see this thing continuing north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The 6z members are a bit north of those at 0z. I know people say don't use them but it has to mean something. But we all should remember that at 18z yesterday we basically had squat. As the trof sharpens further west, we should continue to see a more northern solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 And I'll bet people on the southern end can see this thing continuing north. True we all have our paranoia ....some of which is based in reality of course...so that said...my opinion is this is a nice event for all with the jackpot being our SE friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's gonna move around a bit more but any dreaded r/s line won't be an issue IMO. Temps and ground will support good ratios and accums like Matt mentioned last night. Nice batch of runs recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow guys...nobody comments on the 6z NAM? Major shift. 24 hr precip at 18z Tues. 0z top, 6z bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m045400 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What model are NWS Sterling's snow accumulation graphics based on? Their expected totals do not marry up to either the GFS nor the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 And I'll bet people on the southern end can see this thing continuing north. Haha, that's exactly my concern. RIC is in a good spot as of right now, but we've been burned by north trends so many times in the past that it's hard to get amped up. Interestingly though, Wakefield is playing this one extremely conservative, with a big bias towards this being an NC special. Only calling for 1-3 with no watches/advisories. Given that the start time looks to be tomorrow night now, they'll have to make a call pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow guys...nobody comments on the 6z NAM? Major shift. 24 hr precip at 18z Tues. 0z top, 6z bottom And it went from 6 L to 8!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 And it went from 6 L to 8!!! I have never been able to figure that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Haha, that's exactly my concern. RIC is in a good spot as of right now, but we've been burned by north trends so many times in the past that it's hard to get amped up. Interestingly though, Wakefield is playing this one extremely conservative, with a big bias towards this being an NC special. Only calling for 1-3 with no watches/advisories. Given that the start time looks to be tomorrow night now, they'll have to make a call pretty soon. They are usually conservative and always late to catch on to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 True we all have our paranoia ....some of which is based in reality of course...so that said...my opinion is this is a nice event for all with the jackpot being our SE friends I've seen this a 1000 times where Ric looks to be the jackpot 48 hours out and by gametime Nw of Dc is getting hammered and us Richmonders are dealing with a bunch of mixing.If the RGEM is right and it almost always is we will see that scenario with this storm also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 seems like the scenario may replay itself in one week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 09z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Haha, that's exactly my concern. RIC is in a good spot as of right now, but we've been burned by north trends so many times in the past that it's hard to get amped up. Interestingly though, Wakefield is playing this one extremely conservative, with a big bias towards this being an NC special. Only calling for 1-3 with no watches/advisories. Given that the start time looks to be tomorrow night now, they'll have to make a call pretty soon. Fodie77 I couldn't agree more. Watch this thing keep going North and us Richmonders get screwed again for the 1000th time with a wintery mix to dry slot whil Dc and North are in the CCB getting hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I have a question, are the models now showing a much earlier system? I am seeing Monday night into Tuesday Morning vs Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning. Wondering if this is correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I have a question, are the models now showing a much earlier system? I am seeing Monday night into Tuesday Morning vs Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning. Wondering if this is correct? Yes, because it turns out that an earlier disturbance will end up being the main storm rather than the one on Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z runs are critical. They will have ingested clean data after the departure of yesterday's front, so we should finally have a good picture of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 And it went from 6 L to 8!!!Historical analogs suggest 8 lows is our sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yes, because it turns out that an earlier disturbance will end up being the main storm rather than the one on Tuesday night. Okay, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 09z SREF Seems drier and further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 09z SREF 09z SREF Wow I like that look. I'd like to lock that up please, but too bad the Sref sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Seems drier and further south? Looks further south, but I don't recall there being a 1" lollipop in prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 They are usually conservative and always late to catch on to anything. Glad I'm not the only one that feels like Wakefield is mighty conservative and somewhat slow to react. Living in SBY it often makes sense to read discos from AKQ, LWX, and Mount Holly and sort of blend them. Mount Holly's in particular are night and day to Wakefield's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Seems drier and further south? It's proabbly just the ARW members coming back to earth, which were super west and amped in the last run (1.5"+ of QPF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Its actually pretty good on the SRef. .5 north of Baltimore with the 1" zone popping near RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I guess the question is...how many times in the past have both RIC and DCA been the jackpot in the same storm? My guess is not often so here we go...one will win and one will not win...but all will play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z runs are critical. They will have ingested clean data after the departure of yesterday's front, so we should finally have a good picture of the atmosphere. Would anyone else like to comment? Models are already projecting post frontal passage no? So I wouldn't expect a huge change. But this event makes me wonder since the models have jumped around a bit. I.e Euro big shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I guess the question is...how many times in the past have both RIC and DCA been the jackpot in the same storm? My guess is not often so here we go...one will win and one will not win...but all will playThese are cases we can play the SNE role. Sorry Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I guess the question is...how many times in the past have both RIC and DCA been the jackpot in the same storm? My guess is not often so here we go...one will win and one will not win...but all will play Jan 30, 2010 was a nice storm for both, though Richmond did considerably better. I'd take a repeat in an instant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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