yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 HR 48 QPF map HR 54 QPF map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 06z RGEM has 20mm (0.8") QPF for DC.... all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It appears that we may be in for a significant snowstorm this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 6z GFS almost exactly same as 0z maybe fraction more wet but it held. And was thinking imaybe a tick more north would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 6z GFS almost exactly same as 0z maybe fraction more wet but it held. And was thinking imaybe a tick more north would be nice. Yeah looks pretty similar overall. At this point it would seem Euro is a bit overdone, but who knows. It looks like its gonna snow on Tuesday, and probably warning criteria for many. Then more Arctic cold and more snow chances. Fun week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 EPS is decent... a good amount of members suggesting 6" or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 All of a sudden DT is not humping the Euro: DT got a divorce from euro, didn't you read his little piece about his having a change of thought about the reliability of the model this winter?? lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think DT's map looks very reasonable based on the latest guidance, and NOT just the Euro lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think DT's map looks very reasonable based on the latest guidance, and NOT just the Euro lol. DT clearly explains his map and why he isn't hugging the euro anymore if people bother to read what he posts!! good point cape!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 When this thing comes, We may lose a lot of precip due to really dry air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RGEM and UKMET look nearly identical with .7-.8 all snow QPF for DC/Baltimore metros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 When this thing comes, We may lose a lot of precip due to really dry air... Don't think so. Maybe on the very northern fringes. LIFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 calling PSUHoffmanThis wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. I just don't pretend I am always right like some try too. I like that Mother Nature smacks me around sometimes to keep me humble. Anyways the models have trended towards putting everything into the lead wave and perhaps the storm in front is slightly weaker. That's allowing it to amp up and even slows enough to get some h5 support. It obviously has a shot now I was wrong about that. I still think the second wave would have been better positioned to really bomb out as the trough really digs in wed but the lead wave is obviously the one to watch now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Has the ukie blinked at all since like Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Has the ukie blinked at all since like Thursday? No it hasn't. And I think the srefs deserve some credit as well. It was also showing a more northern hit early yesterday. This is of course if the northern hit verifys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. I just don't pretend I am always right like some try too. I like that Mother Nature smacks me around sometimes to keep me humble. Anyways the models have trended towards putting everything into the lead wave and perhaps the storm in front is slightly weaker. That's allowing it to amp up and even slows enough to get some h5 support. It obviously has a shot now I was wrong about that. I still think the second wave would have been better positioned to really bomb out as the trough really digs in wed but the lead wave is obviously the one to watch now.jb will claim he nailed this even though his idea for this storm was way different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 day2_psnow_gt_042-15-15.gif New record....that is now the widest 10% chance in history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 03z SREFs look pretty good IMO sref_namer_057_precip_p122-15-1503SREFs.gif That's another big shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 When this thing comes, We may lose a lot of precip due to really dry air... Models account for virga. It's a nonissue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 jb will claim he nailed this even though his idea for this storm was way differentI used to follow his stuff and I have to say back in the early 2000s I learned a lot from his blog but he went full tilt a long time ago and busts almost constantly. He simply forecasts the worst case scenario every storm. You won't be right much that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 6z GFS is a general 3-6 areawide. Best swath still south but looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 No it hasn't. And I think the srefs deserve some credit as well. It was also showing a more northern hit early yesterday. This is of course if the northern hit verifys The last 3 24 hr precip maps from the SREFS at 12z Tuesday. Oldest to newest (back to 15z yesterday). Huge shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ok, how close is this storm to Jan 30, 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Encouraging words; we'll see how today's trends go .... PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 313 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 VALID 12Z SUN FEB 15 2015 - 12Z WED FEB 18 2015 MIDDLE-LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST... MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT AS WELL AS HIGHER PROBABILITIES TO THE SNOW AXIS FROM PARTS OF MISSOURI EASTWARD THROUGH THE OH-TN VALLEYS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITH ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO ICE THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA ALSO POSSIBLE IF THE NEW LOW TRACKS VERIFY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NUMEROUS UNCERTAINTIES SUCH AS ARCTIC AIR HELPING TO RETARD THE NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS THE COMPLEXITIES OF MID-LEVEL BANDING AND ROLE OF CONVECTION...ADJUSTMENTS OVERALL ARE MODEST BUT LESS CONSERVATIVE THAT WOULD PURELY BE SUGGESTED FROM THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALONE. MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN LESS THAN AVERAGE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...WHICH IS ANOTHER REASON TO BE CAUTIOUS OF HUGE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS. THEREFORE...THE LATEST SNOW/ICE PROBABILITIES ARE WEIGHTED 50 TO 75 PERCENT TOWARD THE LATEST CONSENSUS...WITH THE REST WEIGHTED TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MESSAGING PURPOSES AND TO MINIMIZE THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF A FLIP-FLOP SHOULD FUTURE RUNS CHANGE THEIR TUNE. THE RESULT IS LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF 8 INCHES OF SNOW FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH A BROADER AREA OF 4 INCH PROBABILITIES SURROUNDING IT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND BRUSHES THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z and 6z gfs is a lovely 2-4" back here in Ji land...looks to be locking in a bit. I do think only subtle shifts north with the precip field...not the low are still on the table but I'd bet a good call right now area wide is the 6z gfs....although if you blend in the other models it probably screams for a higher end result..nevertheless it appears it might snow!!!! Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z and 6z gfs is a lovely 2-4" back here in Ji land...looks to be locking in a bit. I do think only subtle shifts north with the precip field...not the low are still on the table but I'd bet a good call right now area wide is the 6z gfs....although if you blend in the other models it probably screams for a higher end result..nevertheless it appears it might snow!!!! Yay! The 6z members are a bit north of those at 0z. I know people say don't use them but it has to mean something. But we all should remember that at 18z yesterday we basically had squat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I would just like to lock on the RGEM right now and call it a day. It has performed very well this winter. And if it is right. We all are going to get hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ok, how close is this storm to Jan 30, 2010?Hopefully identical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I would just like to lock on the RGEM right now and call it a day. It has performed very well this winter. And if it is right. We all are going to get hit hard. Agree on the RGEM. Last winter too. It's fast becoming the go to model inside of 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I like that we have agreement between the UKIE and Euro, especially considering UKIE's performance this winter and how steadfast it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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