Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So far with 0z globals for the cities...broad brush Gfs: 2-4" Ggem: 3-5" Ukie: 4-6" Euro 6-9" 48 hours from onset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 chilly aftermath too http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 chilly aftermath too http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest It has overnight lows Thursday into Friday at zero or below all the way to VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't have access to Euro maps, but judging by the pbp and qpf numbers being discussed it seems like we have wiggle room in case things tick SE a bit. It'll be interesting to see if the GFS and other models come in a bit more amped over time. I know the euro can over amp things in the medium range, but I don't really recall it leading the way consistently in qpf in the short range. 48 hours isn't medium range. We basically have consensus with the globals. Now it comes down to how much. It's going to snow. The range is 2-9". I'm pretty confident we don't suddenly fall out of that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 00Z RGEM ensemble meteogram for Washington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ill be extremely disappointed if we have to go through more of up and down tomorrow. The Euro is now within NAM range of the storm. I have never seen it give us 1 inch(00z last night) to 8 inches(00z tonight) so close to the start of the storm. I would like to think the big shifts are over but every time i get comfortable, a different disaster happens. I hope tomorrow is a fun day where every run adds like .10 or something. This has been top 3 bizarre tracking storm i can think off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 how does this look for RIC? thanks in advance guys. 6"+ on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Whoa I just got back home from night out with gf, wth?! It seems models are strengthening the lead wave even more eh, didn't even consider that and now we might get 5 to 10" from it lol amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 No, I know. I was trying to say that the euro can over amp things in the 72-120 range, but it is surprising to see it kind of lead the way in throwing that much around inside 48. Recently at least, it seems like other models lead in that regard for better or worse. I'm very happy with the trend and am also confident that we'll snow, but I would like to see more consistency before feeling confident over how significant this is. Hope that made sense. Makes total sense. Euro is the high end solution and the setup isn't .75-1" kind of deal. Sound logic would say we look good for 2-4/3-6. With a nice cold air mass. How can anyone complain except for Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 kudos to the SREF? showed a major shift north tonight early in the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 From DT Was going to paste image, but too big.. Here's the link https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/t31.0-8/10838150_820087814705145_2703156140060986784_o.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ji's post sums it up. There have been some pretty wild changes with the models. It is almost as if every 24 hours a run is about the opposite in terms of our sensible weather, even though timing and differences with upper level features are relatively small (timing, etc.). It is much better that we're seeing a move in a better direction this close in. No doubt about it. We just need it to not seesaw the other way lol. I'm sure there are a lot of people in here tonight (guests in particular) who will set their bar with this one run. I would caution those folks against that. We're much closer to game time but we still have a ways to go imo. As with any storm (regardless of winter and snow) there is an aha moment with the operationals. Tonight was the first semblance of that. We can still fail but big spread amongst the ops stopped tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 From DT Was going to paste image, but too big.. Here's the link https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/t31.0-8/10838150_820087814705145_2703156140060986784_o.jpg Beautiful setup! Let's hope models don't start too much of a NW trend, might bring for more mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 03z SREFs look pretty good IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GEM-LAM forecast radar valid at 00Z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro ens mean is tasty. 1004 at the mouth of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like NAM may be ticking north some on the 06z run.... comparing hr 21 on 06z and hr 27 on 00z -- look in Missouri re QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 All of a sudden DT is not humping the Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The Nam is definitely coming north let's see how far though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It is also is wetter than 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 QPF knocking on DC's door at 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 At 42 the precip gets into DC. Timing seems similar to Euro so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 At 10 p.m. Monday night there is almost 3" on the ground in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 another decent shift north.. Not the Euro but I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 At 1 a.m. there is between 4-5" on the ground in DC. Not as far north as the Euro but a definite improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 DC ends up with 4-5" and Baltimore around 2". All in all it has been a great evening and hopefully the models will lock into this look tomorrow. Have a good evening everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 HR 48 of the 06z RGEM -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3285_100.gif Waiting for the better ones on meteocentre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 LWX's AFD still calling for light snow around DCA, but this may change if the 12Z runs repeat the same message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 HR 48 of the 06z RGEM -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3285_100.gif Waiting for the better ones on meteocentre HR 54 on 06z RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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