CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm not sure if anyone covered the 12z GGEM. It looks the same as 00z until it delivers this little consolation prize to Boston. I mentioned that in the other thread..we get whiffed, pity flakes from that clipper, then it bombs to destroy Boston. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Most here would take that. Given how difficult it is to project what happens to the Baja feature, would more emphasis be put on ensembles at close range than usual? It would make sense since the ensembles are just small tweaks to the overall landscape. Ensembles are helpful in determining uncertainty/certainty and how the op compares. Everything in this case is a guess until the baja upper low and the northern stream fully interact and everything comes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I counted 14 individual members with about 4" or more for DC in 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So we could be in this fix until...maybe tomorrow(?) by the time it's in a better sampled region. 00z runs tomorrow night should be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I counted 14 individual members with about 4" or more for DC. Not bad. Hopefully on to something and the ops is more of an outlier. But of course there's the nagging issue of the Euro not budging in the slightest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 There is some really good individual members for the GEFS. I have a feeling it is not over yet... Why would anybody discount anything at this point? We are 96 hours out...why would you have a feeling either way at this point? I mean..I've see comments like "oy vey" and omg..it's wide right or definitive statement on how it will definitely stay south, etc....and it's total overkill. I don't understand the sense or urgency and the declarations of anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Why would anybody discount anything at this point? We are 96 hours out...why would you have a feeling either way at this point? I mean..I've see comments like "oy vey" and omg..it's wide right or definitive statement on how it will definitely stay south, etc....and it's total overkill. I don't understand the sense or urgency and the declarations of anything at this point. I agree overall. I'm still not ready to mail it in, but I think a lot of people are concerned at how the Euro has been so consistently against it. If that would show just some nod to the "better" solutions the GFS had, I think we'd all feel a bit easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I agree overall. I'm still not ready to mail it in, but I think a lot of people are concerned at how the Euro has been so consistently against it. If that would show just some nod to the "better" solutions the GFS had, I think we'd all feel a bit easier. All the models have been vacillating all winter. There hasn't been a consensus until like 72 hours out. Why would anybody "give up" now based on models that have literally shown every solution with every different run time? All this spiking the football on either side..patting backs how "oh, you've been right" etc now is premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Will post maps from EuroWX as time gets closer to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I agree overall. I'm still not ready to mail it in, but I think a lot of people are concerned at how the Euro has been so consistently against it. If that would show just some nod to the "better" solutions the GFS had, I think we'd all feel a bit easier. Euro has really been all over the place last 4 or 5 runs. Not what I would call consistent. And one of those runs was epic up the coast major hit. Yes it has generally trended away from that, but its solutions are not consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Why would anybody discount anything at this point? We are 96 hours out...why would you have a feeling either way at this point? I mean..I've see comments like "oy vey" and omg..it's wide right or definitive statement on how it will definitely stay south, etc....and it's total overkill. I don't understand the sense or urgency and the declarations of anything at this point. I'll clarify my statement. The "I have a feeling it is not over yet" is not me writing that the GFS has sealed our fate. But some of the more outlandish solutions of 10+" that were shown by some models earlier on haven't really shown up recently, and it is nice to see that a few invidual members, so close to the storm, still have solutions with those crazy numbers. And the "Oy Vey" thing was a joke, just me exclaiming how the GFS was suppressed in its latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Someday I hope someone can prove the better sampling thing. Still don't really get it since the us ob network is such a small part of modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro has really been all over the place last 4 or 5 runs. Not what I would call consistent. And one of those runs was epic up the coast major hit. Yes it has generally trended away from that, but its solutions are not consistent. I thought pretty much since yesterday (or Thursday night really) it was Dr. No on this event. Meanwhile, the GFS had a big hit, then a whiff or near whiff, back to a big hit, and now back to a miss again in the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It may very well be a suppressed wide right storm, I'm not saying it won't miss and trust me...the Euro is likely going to be a miss and annoying...it just doesn't make huge shifts normally...but all I'm saying it we should probably wait until at least tomorrow before handing out the lifeboats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Someday I hope someone can prove the better sampling thing. Still don't really get it since the us ob network is such a small part of modeling. I don't buy into it either at all. We've had several mets come in and say that the whole better sampling thing is BS. With satellite and radar obs, I don't think it's as much of a problem as it was a decade or more ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't buy into it either at all. We've had several mets come in and say that the whole better sampling thing is BS. With satellite and radar obs, I don't think it's as much of a problem as it was a decade or more ago. Not to mention much more sophisticated data assimilation/initialization ability. That's an entire science in itself, practically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I thought pretty much since yesterday (or Thursday night really) it was Dr. No on this event. Meanwhile, the GFS had a big hit, then a whiff or near whiff, back to a big hit, and now back to a miss again in the same time period. It's not really a miss this time. Just an adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I thought pretty much since yesterday (or Thursday night really) it was Dr. No on this event. Meanwhile, the GFS had a big hit, then a whiff or near whiff, back to a big hit, and now back to a miss again in the same time period. Yes it has been a no(lol) But each run the evolution of how it gets there is not consistent. It had the double low thing a couple runs ago where it did come up and scrape SE portions of the area. Then last night it looked flat and ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't buy into it either at all. We've had several mets come in and say that the whole better sampling thing is BS. With satellite and radar obs, I don't think it's as much of a problem as it was a decade or more ago.If nothing else it seems hard to disaggregate from simply closing. No doubt more data is good but I imagine the change is largely imperceptible yet it gets carried forth year to year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't like to extrapolate, but the euro looks quite a bit different at 500mb so far than it did last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like a better defined LP over NOLA thru 51, precip shield looks a bit more broad and north of 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Light snow move into whole region at around 6pm MOnday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Light snow just entering the cities at hr 63, heavier stuff not far away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 From a Met perspective and from forecasting for nearly 10 years in the SW...those closed upper cutoff lows over the Baja are a complete nuisance. The models have a hard time figuring them out and there is a lack of observational data to sample in that region. Until a capture occurs and it gets into a better range the uncertainty is likely to remain high. Would need a strong diving northern stream to pick that up and not leave behind. This is mainly BS, may have been true 15 years ago but it isn't anymore. We have plenty of sampling that goes beyond our radiosonde network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 strange run so far, puts all the energy in the frontrunner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I know its early, but just wanted to show before it gets to Tuesday evening. Hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is mainly BS, may have been true 15 years ago but it isn't anymore. We have plenty of sampling that goes beyond our radiosonde network. Thanks for confirming this. I've heard mets, even Wes, cast dubious light on this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 strange run so far, puts all the energy in the frontrunnerAla the UK model, which has been consistent on thatSent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not to mention much more sophisticated data assimilation/initialization ability. That's an entire science in itself, practically. The argument about sampling of the Baja low gives hope that even if Euro is a whiff it still may come back with something else, something more amenable to us tomorrow. I want to buy into that argument badly. But the points about sampling, lack of real data thereof, as bs gives me pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ala the UK model, which has been consistent on that Sent from my iPad Was just gonna say that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.