ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I like you as well :-). I'm leaving the slider on the table still. Not sure how the northern shift can be taken seriously yet...we have flip flopped day after day. Yea but how often do the models completely fail 48 hours away. And it is every single one of them but the NAM giving us at least 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Didn't you say earlier it would be even further south and east though? I was just kidding with the Sheboygan line :-). Trying to throw a little humor into the mix. I'm really baffled by these extreme shifts. Tomorrow's runs will be telling. Let's see if we can go two consecutive runs with advisory to warning snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Is it me or does the new GFS lead the way in model trending in many of these storms then fumbles to the Euro who then scores the TD? At least that's what I'm hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Since people will worry about this next, the closest the 850 line gets is way down SE of the northern neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 6pm - 8am storm...best guesstimate....9"for DC That would be problematic for 3 commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not much else to say. It's a solid hit. Can you tell me the what this shows for my area. With no snow maps and reading what happens in NVA, DC, BM, I am not so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 sounds like the 12Z NAM run to me, Godnamit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's amazing that four hours ago, this storm was "ovah" and an 80-kt slider. Hopefully the current trends hold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Imby questions answered Widespread .60-.90. Mason dixon .60 and smd/ezf .90. Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 .70 QPF for DCA at h60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Is it me or does the new GFS lead the way in model trending in many of these storms then fumbles to the Euro who then scores the TD? At least that's what I'm hoping From what I've seen, it's as if they switch verification scores for these types of systems depending on lead times. As I commented in the deleted thread, it seems to me like the 1-2 day leads have improved on globals while 3-5 day shifts have become more notable. Don't quote me, but those are my prelim obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So looking at these model run tonight, when would flags fly for LWX CWA? Tough to say...confidence is not great. Need 50% confidence to hoist a watch. Given the track record of guidance and the pattern I'm not sure if we have it. I'm off til the Monday night shift... 10p-6a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That's my worry. It seems like all the models have had serious trouble handling the pieces for this event. Negative and positive trends have been playing seesaw. What gives me greater confidence is that we now seem to be dealing with the first wave, which comes in much sooner. We're pretty close in now. 48 hrs out and Euro/GFS/GGEM/UKIE somewhat consensus (amounts differ but idea is generally the same). If we were 96 hrs out, another story completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Can you tell me the what this shows for my area. With no snow maps and reading what happens in NVA, DC, BM, I am not so sure. .80-.90 Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm going to go to bed now worrying about what to worry about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 .70 QPF for DCA at h60. Cool...That's what it looked like on my 2 sources...good to get confirmation...so roughly 8" for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Deadly serious about deleting banter from here on out, even my own. Mods when you see this tomorrow, start being as brutal as possible. Delete "how much for xx" posts, smilies and any posts not having to do with this storm. Zero banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Based on temps aloft and at the surface we should do better than a standard ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 6pm - 8am storm...best guesstimate....9"for DC Edit - Let's go 8"...I think QPF for DC is around 0.7"... switched to 8"...not that it matters....we could have 13:1 ratios I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Matt, temps? low 20's for metro areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Dca looks like the .75 line dissects it. Distribution on this run is awesome. There are zero losers and winners imo. We all win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 .80-.90 Boom Nice, thank you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Need for what he is a great guy and i love his presence here but he said if he is wrong he will apologize, and i really want a big storm. I was being nothing but nice. I really want a big storm to. It's been a frustrating winter. If I'm wrong I'll issue a statement. I've been wrong before and forecasting has humbled me many times. For my line of work Im always edging and communicating uncertainty and given the area we are in am more in line to be more cautious. For this one I went out on a limb. We haven't had a system work all season, why would it change. Still not a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Below zero Thursday morning for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 6pm - 8am storm...best guesstimate....9"for DC Edit - Let's go 8"...I think QPF for DC is around 0.7"... Just keep hanging in there, the TX/LA region is important and this one continues to look good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Matt, temps? low 20's for metro areas? Me and you are roughly around 27 at onset and then 24 during the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I really want a big storm to. It's been a frustrating winter. If I'm wrong I'll issue a statement. I've been wrong before and forecasting has humbled me many times. For my line of work Im always edging and communicating uncertainty and given the area we are in am more in line to be more cautious. For this one I went out on a limb. We haven't had a system work all season, why would it change. Still not a good pattern. I agree with your points, but sometimes you just need a seamstress for it to all work out . Good luck at work Monday night . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just keep hanging in there, the TX/LA region is important and this one continues to look good to me. Birmingham to ORF,...lovely track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Me and you are roughly around 27 at onset and then 24 during the storm K thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 amazing run but i hope it dosent screw up the 2nd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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