Ji Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Mitch, seriously...I mean really seriously...that worry is so low on the list that worrying about hitting the powerball ranks above it. especially if storm is starting a full day earlier than we thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 We're prob just outside of ens skill now. Ops are agreeing tonight. Blending those will be better than ens means. Heck, short range stuff takes over tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GEFS is solid hit for VA. I'll try post some graphics here in a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How likely is it that the jackpot area currently modeled for southern and central Virginia moves to DC/BWI? I'm not trying to steal anyone's snow, I'm just curious about reaching max potential with this storm. Models seeing too much confluence that needs to be corrected? I really want that max area to shift up towards us. Winter 14-15 is no spring chicken, if you know what I mean, and while it can snow in March I wouldn't bet the farm on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I know it is implied, but one thing that hasn't really been focused on is surface temps. If this event should come to fruition, temps should be in the upper teens to low 20s depending on your location. Also, looking at soundings I do think ratios would probably beat climo (11:1). And we know there would be no wasted QPF. Always risky to go high ratio though and then get crappy snow growth like 3/3/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 AmWX qpf GEFS .5 from just west of RIC to west of Pax River to Ocean City, .25 from north central WV to Front Royal to Mont Cty to BWI and Dover. Snow of 4 inches up to south end of DC Beltway. Bullesye 7-9 inches KY/TN and southeast VA from RIC to west of Norfolk back down to Rocky Mt NC. It's still close for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I know it is implied, but one thing that hasn't really been focused on is surface temps. If this event should come to fruition, temps should be in the upper teens to low 20s depending on your location. Also, looking at soundings I do think ratios would probably beat climo (11:1). And we know there would be no wasted QPF. Always risky to go high ratio though and then get crappy snow growth like 3/3/14. To add to your point, the ground will be very cold too, so there won't be the wet pavement obs for hours, even in UHI hell at your place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The Ukie is also extremely cold. A huge hit for central/southern va. the model is probably cold because it is cold and it is going to probably be cold again later and then the next day colder probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Less platitudes and patronizing statements. Less subjective analysis. I think the board functions better when model/discussion threads are matter of fact and straightforward. The "we", "us" is nice and all but it isn't really how most snow events work around here. I want people to do well, because I like most of the people here and we share a common interest, but in the end nobody who lives in Howard County today would sacrifice even 0.1"of their 3-4" to those who got like 0.3". I think the team discussions are better in other threads that aren't related to forecasting. Everyone has their own agenda and expectations. I think I understand what you're saying. I prefer model/disc. threads straightforward and objective too. The problem comes I guess when people start "rooting" for things or encouraging others to root for things. That is going to be subjective no matter what. It's also kind of dumb and doesn't affect weather but we do it of course, per our geography...often aloud and repeatedly. Anyway I do know there are people here, myself included, who - no platitude - enjoy it even more when we all get crushed. Def inherent challenges in people from all over trying to have one (objective-ish) conversation... OT, I know...please move to banter if desired Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I know it is implied, but one thing that hasn't really been focused on is surface temps. If this event should come to fruition, temps should be in the upper teens to low 20s depending on your location. Also, looking at soundings I do think ratios would probably beat climo (11:1). And we know there would be no wasted QPF. Always risky to go high ratio though and then get crappy snow growth like 3/3/14. 3/3/14 had a strong arctic push that came right in from the north and dried out the atmosphere. Up here it just shut the precip off despite being under good returns. Winds took a northerly component and killed the upper levels. This go round the cold is established and isn't as fresh. The storm will also occur about a day before the next arctic blast so maybe ratios cold be very good even down in Virginia. 15-1 not out of the question. Expecting 20-1 or better rarely works out as you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I just joined you retard, and um...yes, the ensembles were a great improvement Go crawl back where you came from Mr message man tough guy....lmfao I'm going to set the over/under on posts before you are banned at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I just joined you retard, and um...yes, the ensembles were a great improvement Go crawl back where you came from Mr message man tough guy....lmfao Chill out. Let's refocus and get back to the storm guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Chill out. Let's refocus and get back to the storm guys maybe tomorrow you can remove that sig....on second thought, right after the first flakes start falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I like the look of the 700mb RH map on the 24 hr. Euro panel tonight that should slide east and rotate counter-clockwise and get us (DCA/BWI) http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h24&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 maybe try and not use the word "retard"? Wow. Ban him Good point. Lapse in judgement. And on that note..to the rest of the forum...cut the banter from here on out guys..we've been lax with it, but if this thing turns into something, we need to keep this thread clear for legit discussion. I'm deleting even the slightest of banter from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Precip moves into DC metro around 6pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 1004-ish low in North central AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 48 hr Euro map 700mb RH http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 by 1am, 3" is on the ground in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 48 hr Euro map 700mb RH http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest 850 RH http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 48 hr Euro map 700mb RH http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest you're going to like this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 by 1am, 3" is on the ground in DC wow....from those maps I posted I sorta figured it would be sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 4am - 5"+ on ground for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Chill out. Let's refocus and get back to the storm guys Sounds good. My apologies. Hope the 0z euro trends north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 48 hr slp http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 4am - 5"+ on ground for DC Wow...well uh...this certainly is a nice trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Where's the mixing line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 4am - 5"+ on ground for DC double WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 7am - 7"+ on ground for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 48 hr Euro map 700mb RH http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Why are these maps so wavy compared to the smoothed NCEP output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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