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February 16-17 Storm Threat


WxUSAF

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Yes. If those solutions held we'd be snowing Monday night into Tuesday morning. 

Thank you for responding. I have a 20 year old that commutes to VCU. I prefer these to come in predawn so to make a logical decision on attending or not. I sure hope it arrives earlier rather the mid day Tuesday. 

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I wish it worked every time like you dc guys think it does. But I have my comfortable role to play and maybe it will work again. In all honesty I don't have as much time to track as I used too plus the pattern this winter has been giving me fits. I can't figure trends out lately to save my life so I wouldn't trust my opinion much anyways.

well, it must a whole lot of the time since you guys are at least double BWI and triple DCA annual snowfall numbers

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I just wonder if tomorrow night at this time we're sweatin' precip types lol

I don't think so, but I've got to watch what I wish for sometimes

Always a worry around here but I'd rather that problem than virga/OTS whiff. I only have access to the meteogram UKIE stuff but 850s are still -5 at its peak; and the UKIE seems the most amped around here. Let's settle on a non OTS track first. ;)
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Again, things aren't 100% favorable right now, but I'm not sure how anybody can be definitive one way or the other with these models swings from 0z to 6z to 12z to 18z. I think by tomorrow, we'll have a better handle on how this goes down. I can't think of a time when models didn't trend NW this year..maybe this is the end of that, who knows?

10 days ago and the thread Matt started in Dec are two but north trend is favored historically of course.
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Don't happen to have a UKIE qpf number for EZF

I don't right now unfortunately until WxBell updates in a few hours. The Meteocentre has meteograms for major US cities and DC is included which is how I got the 16 mm number. But eyeballing off the maps I posted, EZF is in the same contours as DC but I'd guess you are a few mm higher than me. Probably 18 or so if I had to guesstimate.
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Yeah. I'm still waiting for the fabled OPM day off. I'm happy about the trend tonight, but we've seen pretty small swings make a huge difference. I wouldn't be surprised to see more swings but it is fun having a shot at winning late in the game. 

 

 

:lol:

Not to sound snow snobbish, but no matter the swings in the models, to the N or S, my area just SE of Richmond Va seems to do well on almost all models. This is a rare thing, and I am loving it ATM. But still, I know things can change on a dime, so I am in not lock postion.

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well, it must a whole lot of the time since you guys are at least double BWI and triple DCA annual snowfall numbers

With a 1000 ft elevation this area will get a ton of minor 1-3" snows even in crap years. The big event is missing this year. I was talking about how we can sometimes miss out on southern sliders up here. One of the march storms last year was mostly a bust up this way. The idea that we will always get death banded is not 100% true.
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That Conway dude said they were good, but i cannot see them yet since Tropical Tidbits does not have them up for a while.

 

The mean supports the OP, though it is a bit drier.   Not sure what Conway Twitty was getting such a hard-on over.  He has only 12 posts so far, and based on his body of work in the last 10 minutes, at least 16.6% of them suck.

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The mean supports the OP, though it is a bit drier.   Not sure what Conway Twitty was getting such a hard-on over.  He has only 12 posts so far, and based on his body of work in the last 10 minutes, at least 16.6% of them suck.

Thanks Matt. They sounded a lot better than that.

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