BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I have no real ill will toward you or anyone here. I'm a jerk sometimes I know that (at least I own it unlike some!). I take this stuff more seriously than I should considering it's mainly just a hobby. I wouldn't still be here if I wasn't still learning from it. Plenty of newbies have shed new light on things too. We are all a weirdo family. na, the rest of the world can claim the weirdo criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If leesburg has to be fringed to ensure queens gets hit then I'm willing to make that sacrifice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If leesburg has to be fringed to ensure queens gets hit then I'm willing to make that sacrifice You just want spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I am thrilled things are trending better with the first wave, and with room for improvement. I think the second wave is also worth watching as it would be nice to get some snow on snow. Anyway, this was a nice turn of events with the GFS run. It will be nice if the Ukie and Euro go with the GFS on this. The Ukie really has been the most consistent on this type of solution for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 [quot lle name=zwyts" post="3388234" timestamp="1423973996] Nobody cares about anything but the square mile where they reside. The sooner people stop pretending the better off we will be. Thank you!! I've gotten jack sh!t compared to 99% of this subforum. I measured over 1 inch ONCE this season and it was melted or sublimated within hours. No reason to complain but it is a reality. Spotsy people want to lock this 0z track in now while Baltimore/ north folks whine its not a good run. Its all about where you park your a$$ at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 hopefully snow chances increase.... = more screen time for Amelia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 [quot lle name=zwyts" post="3388234" timestamp="1423973996] Nobody cares about anything but the square mile where they reside. The sooner people stop pretending the better off we will be. Thank you!! I've gotten jack sh!t compared to 99% of this subforum. I measured over 1 inch ONCE this season and it was melted or sublimated within hours. No reason to complain but it is a reality. Spotsy people want to lock this 0z track in now while Baltimore/ north folks whine its not a good run. Its all about where you park your a$$ at night. exactly...snow is not a team sport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 From what I can see, looks like this storm is coming in quicker now. More like late Monday night? At least I think that is what the latest NAM and GFS showed. Just would like some one to verify this please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 absolutely....less time for the atmosphere to throw us a curve...or a "slider" If the Euro looks similar again tonight this might quickly become a relatively decent confidence forecast. I like where we sit for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nobody cares about anything but the square mile where they reside. The sooner people stop pretending the better off we will be. What would change for the better if people stopped pretending? I'm asking with zero snark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You'll still be rooting for the 2nd wave to amplify in 2020....Maybe it is just about time for you to stop telling people what to root for and what they want. not telling anyone want they should want. Everyone can have their own goals to shoot for. But you are in another world for this event. I was very clear that my comments were focused on the Baltimore north people. The first wave looks very good for you to get snow and if I was in dc I would be happy with that prospect. But I have doubts it can come that much further north for reasons stated above and there are people in this forum north of dc. Very different situation up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wxbell adding detailed precip panels is awesome but it comes out way too slow. And I live and die by vort panels and we get none anywhere. Nice to see the lead wave gaining traction. Column is all snow no matter what. I agree about the blizzard not going crazy helping out quite a bit. We're in a very tricky pattern with spacing and energy in both streams. Much of the jumping around is caused by changes in the very near term that ripple into big changes down the line. NWP products will always struggle with this stuff. We saw it a lot last year but nobody complained or remembers because we kept winning. I never paid a ton of attention to it before this winter.. maybe when wxbell added it. I'd heard it had good scores for a while but have never necessarily thought the 500mb NH scores even mean that much on a regional basis. Watching it for a while though it does seem to be quite solid and often more stable than the GFS in particular. Not having 500 maps does suck.. If for some reason we do end up turning the corner on this winter during this stretch I may need to rethink my philosophy about 'late season'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nobody cares about anything but the square mile where they reside. The sooner people stop pretending the better off we will be. Actually I worry about what the airports, ahem cough cough <DCA>, get because that's what's reported for the whole region and is therefore representative of us all. I was embarrassed seeing 56.1 for 9-10 reported by media outlets when I'm pretty sure 56.1 was THE LOWEST on-the-season within 60 mile radius of the busy tarmac there in/on the Potomac (excluding usual suspects, lower southern Maryland and of that ilk). And to spread the hate around a little I'm still very much pissed over the 39.9 recorded at BWI last year when areas in every direction for several miles were comfortably over 40. Plus I like seeing places like upper Montgomery and Leesburg and Westminster and the N and W areas do so well certain winters when the S and E areas do less well (13-14) or not too well at all (03-04). Our whole region gains (snow) respectability that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 not telling anyone want they should want. Everyone can have their own goals to shoot for. But you are in another world for this event. I was very clear that my comments were focused on the Baltimore north people. The first wave looks very good for you to get snow and if I was in dc I would be happy with that prospect. But I have doubts it can come that much further north for reasons stated above and there are people in this forum north of dc. Very different situation up here. You'll be worrying about fringe until deform sets up over you like usual.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I am very happy with this run. I don't care about the 2nd wave except to wave bye-bye standing in my 3-4" of powder. the second wave looks dead but it's hard for me to let go because I'm mecs hunting and I think that had high end potential to be a big event. The first wave seems more limited with its potential but I've been plenty wrong before so hopefully the first trends more amped and we all get 6"+ and I'll gladly look foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well GGEM certainly is nice. But it's the GGEM. And it's been pretty awful this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Cant post the maps. But CMC Did make a huge jump north. Southern-eastern MD-VA very happy. central MD gets some snow. glad to not be bulls-eyed this has tons of potential to keep going north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What would change for the better if people stopped pretending? I'm asking with zero snark. Less platitudes and patronizing statements. Less subjective analysis. I think the board functions better when model/discussion threads are matter of fact and straightforward. The "we", "us" is nice and all but it isn't really how most snow events work around here. I want people to do well, because I like most of the people here and we share a common interest, but in the end nobody who lives in Howard County today would sacrifice even 0.1"of their 3-4" to those who got like 0.3". I think the team discussions are better in other threads that aren't related to forecasting. Everyone has their own agenda and expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 when the GFS was keying on wave 2...it seemed like the most potential for us was a 4-8 storm. With Wave 1, it dosent seem the potential is that much less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Again, things aren't 100% favorable right now, but I'm not sure how anybody can be definitive one way or the other with these models swings from 0z to 6z to 12z to 18z. I think by tomorrow, we'll have a better handle on how this goes down. I can't think of a time when models didn't trend NW this year..maybe this is the end of that, who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well GGEM certainly is nice. But it's the GGEM. And it's been pretty awful this winter. We're right at the consensus range. I'm not a ggem fan by any stretch but this is a net + no matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 UKIE looks great. Eyeballing about 15 mm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 when the GFS was keying on wave 2...it seemed like the most potential for us was a 4-8 storm. With Wave 1, it dosent seem the potential is that much less pretty much...for many people, the great model runs of a couple days ago were like 6-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 6" on the Ukie sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 UKIE looks great. Eyeballing about 15 mm? congrats Bowstein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 UKIE looks great. Eyeballing about 15 mm? I want this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Did you guys see the 0z GFS ensembles. Wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Did you guys see the 0z GFS ensembles. Wow!!Info please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 6" on the Ukie sweet. Lock it up, this will be an epic week if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You'll be worrying about fringe until deform sets up over you like usual..I wish it worked every time like you dc guys think it does. But I have my comfortable role to play and maybe it will work again. In all honesty I don't have as much time to track as I used too plus the pattern this winter has been giving me fits. I can't figure trends out lately to save my life so I wouldn't trust my opinion much anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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