Expat Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 lol.. stop Wait, so the map isn't correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Better for dc than bwi and north. Snow for all.looks like .4 to .5 for dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm really not telling anyone what to look at or not look at but forecasting is a learning process.. and yeah most people are here for fun but they are also here for forecasting, so they should learn what is best practice over time. I have a pretty high tolerance for "bad thoughts" as they can open the doors to new learning. I have said a lot of stupid things here over the years myself and been corrected and been better off for it in the future. There are a lot more people here than there were way back when though.. so sometimes we get bogged down in ridiculousness (my opinion, maybe wrong). In the end.. whatever.. just sharing thoughts, sometimes less than cordially because it's the internet and that's how we are here sometimes. Nice post ian. You know I like to give you a hard time sometimes. This is a very wise post. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 nice run by the GFS - we just barely miss out on the really, really good stuff... 50 miles shift west and north... NAM shifted north a bit and GFS did as well (a lot more). definitely keeps us in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 QPF rates are not huge, but enough for a decent coating - assuming 10:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wait, so the map isn't correct?5-8 seems high. Maybe 3-5/3-6 would be more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Real nice trends. A little more to the north and this could be a 6 inch event for dc. Really interested in what the euro will show, hopefully it will keep the north trend going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How does this become a stronger storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Plays out sort of similar but it's like a day earlier now... which is good since it's closer. absolutely....less time for the atmosphere to throw us a curve...or a "slider" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You gotta believe this will short more to the north. The precip shield looks so much better on this run. If you look at the 42 hour surface panel, you can see it looks really impressive. Just move that further north and you bring those heavy snow totals further north. So, now its late Monday into Tuesday afternoon for this storm based on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 the risk that has been mentioned before is that if we miss on the front runner, it will mess things up for the second part, which is what the NAM looks to do but since it is soooo close on the first part and the Euro says YES, we sit tight if NAM misses the 2nd connection I really think you are rooting for the wrong wave. The flow is so suppressive and it has no upper support. Even as dead as it looks now I think our only chance of a big snow is to hope that first wave leaves enough behind to phase with the vort diving in behind it. Now if I lived from dc south and was only looking for a few inches the first wave might do it so depending on your location and goal it might be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I really think you are rooting for the wrong wave. The flow is so suppressive and it has no upper support. Even as dead as it looks now I think our only chance of a big snow is to hope that first wave leaves enough behind to phase with the vort diving in behind it. Now if I lived from dc south and was only looking for a few inches the first wave might do it so depending on your location and goal it might be different. You'll still be rooting for the 2nd wave to amplify in 2020....Maybe it is just about time for you to stop telling people what to root for and what they want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You gotta believe this will short more to the north. The precip shield looks so much better on this run. If you look at the 42 hour surface panel, you can see it looks really impressive. Just move that further north and you bring those heavy snow totals further north. So, now its late Monday into Tuesday afternoon for this storm based on this run. give this man a cigar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 tibits sucks... too slow... I sound like Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 give this man a cigar post/location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I really think you are rooting for the wrong wave. The flow is so suppressive and it has no upper support. Even as dead as it looks now I think our only chance of a big snow is to hope that first wave leaves enough behind to phase with the vort diving in behind it. Now if I lived from dc south and was only looking for a few inches the first wave might do it so depending on your location and goal it might be different. I am very happy with this run. I don't care about the 2nd wave except to wave bye-bye standing in my 3-4" of powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 UKMET is pretty good.. too bad it's so hard to get quality data from it. Wxbell adding detailed precip panels is awesome but it comes out way too slow. And I live and die by vort panels and we get none anywhere. Nice to see the lead wave gaining traction. Column is all snow no matter what. I agree about the blizzard not going crazy helping out quite a bit. We're in a very tricky pattern with spacing and energy in both streams. Much of the jumping around is caused by changes in the very near term that ripple into big changes down the line. NWP products will always struggle with this stuff. We saw it a lot last year but nobody complained or remembers because we kept winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You'll still be rooting for the 2nd wave to amplify in 2020....Maybe it is just about time for you to stop telling people what to root for and what they want.Amen.....like the look around EZF, though we do find ways to screw it up down here. Hopeful for 3-5, which would more than double yearly total of 1.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nice post ian. You know I like to give you a hard time sometimes. This is a very wise post. :-)I have no real ill will toward you or anyone here. I'm a jerk sometimes I know that (at least I own it unlike some!). I take this stuff more seriously than I should considering it's mainly just a hobby. I wouldn't still be here if I wasn't still learning from it. Plenty of newbies have shed new light on things too. We are all a weirdo family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 5-8 seems high. Maybe 3-5/3-6 would be more reasonable. Not sure why it matters at this point, but I zoomed way in and it it looks like 2-6" generally N to S across MD and N VA. Heaviest amounts S MD and lower Eastern Shore. Looks like some 8" amounts down in south central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS qpf: BWI-.26" DCA-.37" IAD-.30" JYO-.27" MTN-.21" EZF-.43"" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What do the folks up north say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What do the folks up north say? eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You'll still be rooting for the 2nd wave to amplify in 2020....Maybe it is just about time for you to stop telling people what to root for and what they want. I'm just rooting for snow as I know you are. What I root for has no impact on what is going to happen. If wave 1 works out then life is good. If wave 2 works out life is good. If neither work out life is bad. I will gleefully root for wave 1 because it could produce snow faster than wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If the GFS is right, I'd get almost 75% of my season total from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nobody cares about anything but the square mile where they reside. The sooner people stop pretending the better off we will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm just rooting for snow as I know you are. What I root for has no impact on what is going to happen. If wave 1 works out then life is good. If wave 2 works out life is good. If neither work out life is bad. I will gleefully root for wave 1 because it could produce snow faster than wave 2. snow delayed is 90% of the time snow denied I like the first wave idea for that reason alone and will happily live with a lighter snowfall that falls in 2 days vs. 3 because sooooo much more seems to go wrong at 72 hour leads than 48 hr. but, that's me and I understand some are willing to roll the dice....at my age, I can barely read the dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm just rooting for snow as I know you are. What I root for has no impact on what is going to happen. If wave 1 works out then life is good. If wave 2 works out life is good. If neither work out life is bad. I will gleefully root for wave 1 because it could produce snow faster than wave 2. And an extremely cold snow at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nobody cares about anything but the square mile where they reside. The sooner people stop pretending the better off we will be. best of luck Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS qpf: BWI-.26" DCA-.37" IAD-.30" JYO-.27" MTN-.21" EZF-.43"" Thanks Mitch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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