GEOS5ftw Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0Z RGEM likes the first wave a lot...guessing it would lead to euro or ukmet-like result. It seemed to do pretty well with today's event (though obviously a completely different kind of forcing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If you toned down the passive aggressiveness 1% maybe somebody here would like you. I don't really care too much what teenage douchebags think of me to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0Z RGEM likes the first wave a lot...guessing it would lead to euro or ukmet-like result. It seemed to do pretty well with today's event (though obviously a completely different kind of forcing). you beat me! here's the B&W map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If you toned down the passive aggressiveness 1% maybe somebody here would like you. LOL...plenty here like Ian. He's right, none of us learn. We are too emotionally invested in this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0Z RGEM likes the first wave a lot...guessing it would lead to euro or ukmet-like result. It seemed to do pretty well with today's event (though obviously a completely different kind of forcing). Looks similar to the NAM which suddenly squashed the storm afterward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RGEM looks really nice, but probably like a 2-4" event, more south like EZF or maybe RIC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks similar to the NAM which suddenly squashed the storm afterward actually looks much better than NAM the vertical motion maps and 700MB maps are decent while NAM suffers from over amplifying the SE Canada vortex which is the cause for being squished SE....RGEM ain't falling into that trap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 SREF is awful at range.. not sure why anyone even looks at it. Might be worse than the NAM at range. It's like a fine tuning tool in the short range more than anything.. sometimes useful out to 48. Better for svr than snow IMO. This is a weather board but people should also learn over time... Don't assume we are giving the SREFs any weight just because we are discussing them. Not sure why you feel the need to repeat the quality of the models at various ranges. Anybody who is a consistent reader is well aware, but it certainly doesn't do any harm to glance at them, and even discuss them. If we added the caveats about each model every time we posted a discussion, it would be extremely repetitive, as if it isn't repetitive enough around here already. What's more unbearable is 15 people all racing to be the first to do pbp on the models the instant they come off, and even worse extrapolating what the model might do without just waiting to see what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 LOL...plenty here like Ian. He's right, none of us learn. We are too emotionally invested in this stuff. People can look at whatever they want.. I know I'm not going to change their minds. For the most part I just disappear when the useless models are being discussed. I totally understand the process and the interest. I've been doing this for like 18 years now though. Most models have their uses and their strengths--in general everyone would be better off using them for that and not much else.. there is so much data now it all becomes confusing and makes the forecast worse in many cases IMO. This is a weather board with a whole bunch of anon people who have been anon forever. I am totally transparent about who I am and I share thoughts on almost everything (often to a fault because I'm wrong a lot!). At some point these little turds should just STFU though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Don't assume we are giving the SREFs any weight just because we are discussing them. Not sure why you feel the need to repeat the quality of the models at various ranges. Anybody who is a consistent reader is well aware, but it certainly doesn't do any harm to glance at them, and even discuss them. If we added the caveats about each model every time we posted a discussion, it would be extremely repetitive, as if it isn't repetitive enough around here already. I disagree.. anyway, not sure why it's so hurtful for me to say the SREF sucks at range. I love it for svr weather in the 24 or so range. Anyway, maybe someone should just start a thread for people to discuss how much they dislike me. I'm generally only harsh to people who started something and don't let up.. e.g. DCA and hosj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 A Cowboys fan is alright by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RGEM precip map (I'm beatin' this dead horse since it might change in 6 hours!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 For the first wave we will have a short window of time to get the slug of moisture to push this far north. That short window is created by the relaxation in confluence between the the 50/50 low and the PV, then the moisture quickly gets squashed south and the associated s/w washes out ala NAM 0Z...a stronger s/w also helps keeps things together longer as we have see in the latest NAM,UKMET and EURO. For wave #2 to work the s/w that drops in over the PAC NW needs to be stronger (like previous runs) so that it can dig. Digging will slow it down and time it better with the Arctic Jet s/w that comes in late. Last night GFS 0Z was close on this but has since trended away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I disagree.. anyway, not sure why it's so hurtful for me to say the SREF sucks at range. I love it for svr weather in the 24 or so range. Anyway, maybe someone should just start a thread for people to discuss how much they dislike me. I'm generally only harsh to people who started something and don't let up.. e.g. DCA and hosj. I'm not saying I dislike you at all. That wasn't my point really. Guess I didn't get the tone right. It's not "hurtful" for you to say it at all. And perhaps some folks do need the reminding. Don't take it the wrong way. I'm one of the ones who likes you. The folks coming out of the woodwork with terrible pbp, are becoming troublesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Let's stop arguing and focus on how much the GFS is going to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This has become so complicated it feels like neither event will happen and we end up with zilch. Just a gut feeling since we don't do complicated very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 at 27 hrs, 1st wave further north than 18Z we'll see if it makes a diff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This has become so complicated it feels like neither event will happen and we end up with zilch. Just a gut feeling since we don't do complicated very well. I don't think it's that complicated really....we have 2 waves, one needs to hit us with the 1st wave being able to do it with less help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 at 27 hrs, 1st wave further north than 18Z we'll see if it makes a diff Orientation of the QPF field is certainly better on 00z 39 vs 18z 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm not saying I dislike you at all. That wasn't my point really. Guess I didn't get the tone right. It's not "hurtful" for you to say it at all. And perhaps some folks do need the reminding. Don't take it the wrong way. I'm one of the ones who likes you. The folks coming out of the woodwork with terrible pbp, are becoming troublesome. I'm really not telling anyone what to look at or not look at but forecasting is a learning process.. and yeah most people are here for fun but they are also here for forecasting, so they should learn what is best practice over time. I have a pretty high tolerance for "bad thoughts" as they can open the doors to new learning. I have said a lot of stupid things here over the years myself and been corrected and been better off for it in the future. There are a lot more people here than there were way back when though.. so sometimes we get bogged down in ridiculousness (my opinion, maybe wrong). In the end.. whatever.. just sharing thoughts, sometimes less than cordially because it's the internet and that's how we are here sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 00ZGFS also north. clear trend forming tonight. north north north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RGEM precip map (I'm beatin' this dead horse since it might change in 6 hours!) Nice. You can see this has room to come north. The relaxation in the confluence (H pressure) between the 50/50 and PV show up nice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 42 has 1009mb SLP in C MS 45 in W AL at 1006mb 48 in C AL at 1006mb 51 in C GA (ATL area) at 1006mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS is nice through 48 hours precip is North and Low is stronger. Looks a lot like the RGEM actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0Z GFS looks like a positive shift http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021500&time=3&var=APCPI&hour=051 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 42 has 1009mb SLP in C MS 45 in W AL at 1006mb 48 in C AL at 1006mb 51 in C GA (ATL area) at 1006mb look above....that's exactly where the RGEM has it (more or less) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Let's stop arguing and focus on how much the GFS is going to suck. Oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS way north. .1-.25 to mason dix at 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Oops a mistake any one of us would take in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 a mistake any one of us would take in a heartbeat Today was fun in a lot of ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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