stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 People need to make up their minds. Good run bad run at the same time It's probably gonna miss, but I'm just seeing all these definite calls and it's not even done yet. It's better than 18z that's for sure. Looks like the front wave is closer...may be a second wave hanging back over GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 There is a low of Cape Hatteras at hour 54, but the precip shield doesn't look good. time to focus on the 500mb low coming into the picture to see if it pulls up something like the 18Z run did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I cant post the maps off stormvista at 54 but compared to 18z its incredible how north everything went. Steps in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Big miss. on h63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Big miss. on h63 What does that mean exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What does that mean exactly? The Low is a couple hundred miles east of hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 the risk that has been mentioned before is that if we miss on the front runner, it will mess things up for the second part, which is what the NAM looks to do but since it is soooo close on the first part and the Euro says YES, we sit tight if NAM misses the 2nd connection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What does that mean exactly? For DC metro it's a whiff, but it was closer than 18z and the trend all year has been a steady northward progression towards game time, so were not dead yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The Low is a couple hundred miles east of hatteras. Well say that next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 SREF H5 at 21 hours The ARW solutions which create an apps runner with a solid snow-ice hit and 1" QPF really amp up and dig the first s/w. The others do not. Now here is the 0z RAP at the same time. Notice how the first s/w matches the depiction of the ARW members. Very interesting if you ask me. We should know where this is headed by tomorrow morning. The trend this season has been to amplify the northern stream as the storm approaches, which I believe is reflected here. I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes an apps runner with a solid front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well say that next time. Here. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021500&time=3&var=APCPI&hour=069 Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 For DC metro it's a whiff, but it was closer than 18z and the trend all year has been a steady northward progression towards game time, so were not dead yet. How do you figure this run was closer than the 18z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The run blows..but again, with the way this year has gone, no point in bailing on the threat yet. Personally, I'll hold until 12z tomorrow. But I'm not gonna be making definitive statements one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How do you figure this run was closer than the 18z run? 18z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015021418&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=054 0z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015021500&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=048 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The run blows..but again, with the way this year has gone, no point in bailing on the threat yet. Personally, I'll hold until 12z tomorrow. But I'm not gonna be making definitive statements one way or the other. ur/we're gonna' need to wait until 0Z tomorrow imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How do you figure this run was closer than the 18z run? Putting all my eggs in 1st wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The run blows..but again, with the way this year has gone, no point in bailing on the threat yet. Personally, I'll hold until 12z tomorrow. But I'm not gonna be making definitive statements one way or the other. But you are gonna hold until 12z tomorrow... is that a definite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 ur/we're gonna' need to wait until 0Z tomorrow imho According to WPC, defo. Additional energy coming in off the Pac NW, not yet well incorporated into the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 remember that the ARW members are initialized off of the RAP, so the agreement there is not surprising. SREF H5 at 21 hours The ARW solutions which create an apps runner with a solid snow-ice hit and 1" QPF really amp up and dig the first s/w. The others do not. Now here is the 0z RAP at the same time. Notice how the first s/w matches the depiction of the ARW members. Very interesting if you ask me. We should know where this is headed by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 According to WPC, defo. Additional energy coming in off the Pac NW, not yet well incorporated into the models considering 18Z GFS said I'd get .04" tonight and received .21", I believe it wise to wait as long as possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015021418&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=054 0z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015021500&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=048 I see what you mean at that particular hour of the run but the 18z run ended up with a storm off the VA Capes and this run ends up way east. I don't know if I would call that an improvement. Correction, just saw that this run ends up very simiiar to the 18z run with the last in a series of lows off the VA Capes. So its still close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 considering 18Z GFS said I'd get .04" tonight and received .21", I believe it wise to wait as long as possible Its too close not too. And there is too much spread and not a lot of consistency run to run.. This goes down to the wire. I agree it will likely take till 0z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 remember that the ARW members are initialized off of the RAP, so the agreement there is not surprising. Had no idea. Fwiw HRRR also agrees at hour 15. Do short range models do thing like this at the end of their runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I definitely think we have to wait probably until 0z Wed. At that point I think we'll know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greensunrise Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Making a forecast at 0z Wednesday would probably not be in your best interest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 well, if the initial conditions are the drivers of the solution, then any models initialized off of the same analysis will have similar evolutions. The HRRR is initialized from the RAP, so I would expect the upper levels to evolve similarly in almost all cases. Had no idea. Fwiw HRRR also agrees at hour 15. Do short range models do thing like this at the end of their runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Its too close not too. And there is too much spread and not a lot of consistency run to run.. This goes down to the wire. I agree it will likely take till 0z tomorrow. If the models somehow revert back to focusing on the 2nd wave then this will go down to the wire and won't be totally resolved until well into Monday. Don't forget if it is the 2nd wave that gets us it won't start snowing until midday Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 SREF is awful at range.. not sure why anyone even looks at it. Might be worse than the NAM at range. It's like a fine tuning tool in the short range more than anything.. sometimes useful out to 48. Better for svr than snow IMO. This is a weather board but people should also learn over time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Its too close not too. And there is too much spread and not a lot of consistency run to run.. This goes down to the wire. I agree it will likely take till 0z tomorrow. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 SREF is awful at range.. not sure why anyone even looks at it. Might be worse than the NAM at range. It's like a fine tuning tool in the short range more than anything.. sometimes useful out to 48. Better for svr than snow IMO. This is a weather board but people should also learn over time... If you toned down the passive aggressiveness 1% maybe somebody here would like you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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