WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'll start this for now and merge it into Randy's thread if that gets found/recovered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z UKIE QPF map at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The GEFS mean looks a lot better than the Operational.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The UKMet timing is still completely different than the GFS--- snow moving in pre-dawn Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'll start this for now and merge it into Randy's thread if that gets found/recovered. Thanks for doing this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The UKMet timing is still completely different than the GFS--- snow moving in pre-dawn Tuesday morning. Yeah, definitely a different timing. Someone mentioned it's not keying on the same shortwave or something like that (can't recall exactly). Apparently it's done that pretty consistently for awhile (whether right or not)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z UKIE QPF map at 72 12zUKIE72hrsQPF2-14-15.gif UK MET is holding on for life. Better northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 The GEFS mean looks a lot better than the Operational.... I haven't seen precip yet, but the mean low position is probably ~50-100mi further N/W. Not a huge difference, but something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The GEFS mean looks a lot better than the Operational.... Backed off a bit from 6z comparing the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The GEFS mean looks a lot better than the Operational.... As in...? Any idea of individual member clusters, etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 UK MET is holding on for life. Better northern stream Even though its on its own, it has consistently been advertising this type of solution for I believe at least 4 straight runs... so at least its consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 As in...? Any idea of individual member clusters, etc.? Mean precip is higher, betters storm track. Invidual members still coming out, but many have an expanded precip shield compared to the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'll start this for now and merge it into Randy's thread if that gets found/recovered. Screw it. I just got back to the house. It's permanently gone. Oh well. I'm sorry all, it really was an accident. But anyway...so it's not as dire as everybody tried to make it seem on the GFS. Oh, it's a miss, definitely, but it's not "wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 As in...? Any idea of individual member clusters, etc.? Out to 72... so we should know in a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Mean precip is higher, betters storm track. Invidual members still coming out, but many have an expanded precip shield compared to the operational. Thanks. Interesting to see the expanded precip shield compared to ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Out to 72... so we should know in a few 'K...sorry, didn't realize it was still running and in the early stages! I confused that with the discussion of the mean, which I guess comes out first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm guessing that there won't be the same level of excitement for the Euro as there was last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thanks. Interesting to see the expanded precip shield compared to ops. I guess that would imply more members with a further NW track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On the ewall GEFS it looks like 8 solid hits, 2 glancing blows (like the op), 2 complete whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 From a Met perspective and from forecasting for nearly 10 years in the SW...those closed upper cutoff lows over the Baja are a complete nuisance. The models have a hard time figuring them out and there is a lack of observational data to sample in that region. Until a capture occurs and it gets into a better range the uncertainty is likely to remain high. Would need a strong diving northern stream to pick that up and not leave behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 There is some really good individual members for the GEFS. I have a feeling it is not over yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On the ewall GEFS it looks like 8 solid hits, 2 glancing blows (like the op), 2 complete whiffs. Looks like a few members like deepening the MSLP quickly looking at 84 and 90 ETA: P013 please... even if we do flirt with the mixy stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm not sure if anyone covered the 12z GGEM. It looks the same as 00z until it delivers this little consolation prize to Boston. ETA: Actually it looks worse than 00z for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 From a Met perspective and from forecasting for nearly 10 years in the SW...those closed upper cutoff lows over the Baja are a complete nuisance. The models have a hard time figuring them out and there is a lack of observational data to sample in that region. Until a capture occurs and it gets into a better range the uncertainty is likely to remain high. Would need a strong diving northern stream to pick that up and not leave behind. People have bashed you but you have been dead on so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Screw it. I just got back to the house. It's permanently gone. Oh well. I'm sorry all, it really was an accident. But anyway...so it's not as dire as everybody tried to make it seem on the GFS. Oh, it's a miss, definitely, but it's not "wide right. I went to FSU for grad school, and know exactly what wide right is! Was there for the "original" one vs. Miami in 1991. Ugh! Anyhow, sorry that happened with the other storm thread and that it's just gone for good. But we got this one started up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 People have bashed you but you have been dead on so far. I'm used to it. Work for the Fed ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I haven't seen precip yet, but the mean low position is probably ~50-100mi further N/W. Not a huge difference, but something. Not bad at all. Seems it just means that the track isn't 100% set in stone yet ... guess we will see but not holding out too much hope personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'll take member p013 please. Low bombs out on the delmarva, we get an inch of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Of course the GGEM still nails Boston. Every storm finds a way there. They have the snow magnets on full power. Every clipper, Miller A, Miller B, upper air energy, wave, front, puff of cloud manages to move north, south, east, west, or upside down -- whatever is required to park over ORH and puke snow. They sure can get into some amazing grooves up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 From a Met perspective and from forecasting for nearly 10 years in the SW...those closed upper cutoff lows over the Baja are a complete nuisance. The models have a hard time figuring them out and there is a lack of observational data to sample in that region. Until a capture occurs and it gets into a better range the uncertainty is likely to remain high. Would need a strong diving northern stream to pick that up and not leave behind. So we could be in this fix until...maybe tomorrow(?) by the time it's in a better sampled region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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