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The Valentine's Day Massacre Obs--A snow job or does it only blow?


moneypitmike

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What do you make of the NAVGEM?

Odd that it hasn't corrected this late in the game...

 

I don't know.. it's ominous if unsettling that the NAVGEM (very few are aware of this...) was the first to latch onto the blizzard, both in synoptic evolution and details.  Yes it was... go to your respective sources, and you will see the bottom of that trough swinging neutral then negative in that run, well before even the Euro at D5.   

 

This system approaches theoretical boundary of what Terran physics can engender.  That means that anything that can happen, is usually a detriment to process...not improvement.

 

What I am getting at is hypothetical, but hearkens back to a conversation I once had with Mike years ago. These higher resolution models may be too good of a thing for handling extreme solutions, because they see perhaps too much, while simultaneously not seeing enough. If they saw the whole picture... all the way down to predicting quantum states of particle physics/interactions, than their error goes away.  

 

But this isn't Star Trek -- not just yet.  So these higher res models ingest sampled forces that the grainier models don't know are there, BUT, see them incompletely?  

 

They have to then process .. conserving for those incompletely sampled 'realization', and that becomes emergent error instead of correcting for them.  But not having an input grid that is sufficiently sampled, which is required for extreme events, the irony is the finer grid models, to employ and aphorism, 'shoot themselves in the foot. ' 

 

It's like the models really should not get any finer meshed until the sampling technology/grid becomes more fluid.  

 

None of that philosophy supports a NAVGEM solution... but I do find it interesting that the finer the meshed model, the more distracting has been their solutions on this ordeal. 

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So far, bar some very brief moments of heavy snow and 20mph wind, we've settled into very light confectioners sugar falling fairly gently, with maybe 1/2 an inch so far.

 

As usual Newport seems to part the green sea a bit.  Thus far the heaviest bands were to our north and west, and now its to our east.  

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So far, bar some very brief moments of heavy snow and 20mph wind, we've settled into very light confectioners sugar falling fairly gently, with maybe 1/2 an inch so far.

 

As usual Newport seems to part the green sea a bit.  Thus far the heaviest bands were to our north and west, and now its to our east.  

I know!  Not the first time, certainly not the last!!  Earlier this afternoon we were 15 miles too far east, now we're 15 miles too far west!  Clinch is gonna verify here.  Ha ha.

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1" new since the start 6 hours ago. Wiped and hoping the next 6 hours comes in higher than an inch.

 

It took me 8 hours for 2".  Just tremendous rates.

 

BOX still calling for 4-8" with 2-4" tonight and nondescript amount tomorrow morning.  On top of the 2" that's here, I'm going 4-6 total.  Unless the navgem rides in for the rescue.

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I know!  Not the first time, certainly not the last!!  Earlier this afternoon we were 15 miles too far east, now we're 15 miles too far west!  Clinch is gonna verify here.  Ha ha.

 

Is this just confirmation bias, or is there a reason for this phenomenon because we're on an island?

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Is this just confirmation bias, or is there a reason for this phenomenon because we're on an island?

South winds are inhospitable for snow in Newport....I've seen several inches of snow in Portsmouth with a south wind...(the northernmost part of this island for our northern friends....)while Newport barely even had an inch....I was driving late this afternoon near the Navy Base in the northern most part of Newport and it was snowing moderately...close to heavy with a VIZ below a mile...then as soon as I approached Thames Street near the Marriott snow turned to S- with much better visibility.

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