ORH_wxman Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 Look at the inflow into SE MA and the deformation spreading the snow from LWM-IJD. Dear God. Yeah that was awesome...the snowgrowth layer in that storm was like 10,000+ feet thick, lol. It went from like 950mb to 700mb. That ULL on 'roids really made things go to town even with the best baroclinicity trying to get pushed out into the Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 Yeah that was awesome...the snowgrowth layer in that storm was like 10,000+ feet thick, lol. It went from like 950mb to 700mb. That ULL on 'roids really made things go to town even with the best baroclinicity trying to get pushed out into the Gulf of Maine. That was a real interesting case. I don't think I have ever seen such a discrepancy between models shoving the QPF so far northeast with the better WAA, and yet such a good mid level look..with models so dry. We know sometimes the models underforecast snow amounts near those deformation areas, but that was really egregious. I wonder if such a cold ULL going south of us maybe threw off models and caused them to throw best QPF into Maine. They did have the inflow and QPF east of Boston...but just too far east and had no clue about metro west. IIRC, models weren't even dry at 700 and 500 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 That was a real interesting case. I don't think I have ever seen such a discrepancy between models shoving the QPF so far northeast with the better WAA, and yet such a good mid level look..with models so dry. We know sometimes the models underforecast snow amounts near those deformation areas, but that was really egregious. I wonder if such a cold ULL going south of us maybe threw off models and caused them to throw best QPF into Maine. They did have the inflow and QPF east of Boston...but just too far east and had no clue about metro west. IIRC, models weren't even dry at 700 and 500 too. Yeah we had this discussion earlier in the thread too. The weird part was that there was basically no snow up along the Maine coast until you either got south of Portland right on the coast or up toward Eastport...huge bust there. The QPF did look kind of funny though on some of those runs giving like 1.5-2" of L.E. so far removed from the mid-level centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 That was a real interesting case. I don't think I have ever seen such a discrepancy between models shoving the QPF so far northeast with the better WAA, and yet such a good mid level look..with models so dry. We know sometimes the models underforecast snow amounts near those deformation areas, but that was really egregious. I wonder if such a cold ULL going south of us maybe threw off models and caused them to throw best QPF into Maine. They did have the inflow and QPF east of Boston...but just too far east and had no clue about metro west. IIRC, models weren't even dry at 700 and 500 too. I mean clearly there was a convective element to this event too. Models are notoriously awful with that in the winter. It was fairly agonizing watching that snow gun on steroids start to form in York County and start ripping south overnight. Went from around 1" QPF at PWM day shift on the 14th, to 0.16" by the midnight shift 12 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 it actually looks I wonder if that was kind of a hybrid NORLUN deal - almost like an "elevate NORLUN" if there could be such a thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 it actually looks I wonder if that was kind of a hybrid NORLUN deal - almost like an "elevate NORLUN" if there could be such a thing There was instability in the soundings...I mean, I think CHH sounding had like 200 joules of MU CAPE. There was definitely a MAUL in the skew-Ts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 There was instability in the soundings...I mean, I think CHH sounding had like 200 joules of MU CAPE. There was definitely a MAUL in the skew-Ts. Probably strictly by the paper it wasn't, only because the duration wasn't long enough for most areas, but otherwise I'm sure all criteria were met. So hybrid is probably a good fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 Here the sounding that Chris posted earlier in the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 Probably strictly by the paper it wasn't, only because the duration wasn't long enough for most areas, but otherwise I'm sure all criteria were met. So hybrid is probably a good fit. I also dont think the mid-levels really matched the typical NORLUN setup too where you have a kinking back of all the isotherms enhanced by a big area of LL convergence...there was a lot of synoptic play in this still, but mixed with some NORLUN aspects....a pretty neat event though in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 Yeah we had this discussion earlier in the thread too. The weird part was that there was basically no snow up along the Maine coast until you either got south of Portland right on the coast or up toward Eastport...huge bust there. The QPF did look kind of funny though on some of those runs giving like 1.5-2" of L.E. so far removed from the mid-level centers. Yeah we did...but it's just very intriguing. What a crazy storm. That CHH sounding...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 Having a trop fold helped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 498 bitches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 It's like the synoptics gave the NORLUN "embed" a bit of a positive kick back, then together they were more prolific. Without the over-hanging synoptics, the NORLUN "aspect" doesn't do anything. But with the NORLUN the two excel. That's pretty f cool/amazing if that's like what went down with that beyotch - It's just thinking open/hypothetical about that rad presentation, because those imagines seem to betray the presence of something other than a converyor. There's a stationary aspect, where the stationary-ness isn't purely stationary, but like pivots S with the conveyor off the ocean? does any of that make sense - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 As exciting as it is to remember the Tip meltdown... I was going back in this thread just now and man, right when the ML center was nuking out to our southeast, the radar was lighting up...pretty awesome to watch: That is definitely a one-of-a-kind type radar image right there. Looks very NORLUN like. Man, so many cool events for eastern Mass last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 It snowed. Without reading back through I would not recall what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 It snowed. Without reading back through I would not recall what happened.early onset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Crappy storm here. GFS was teasing us with beefed up QPF but we knew better. Kevin was trying to pretend like he was getting eastern mass snowfall rates while the guy in Coventry was calling him out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 You can see how it became a bit more "classic" looking as the event unfolded...the mid-levels were deepening so rapidly and fighting it to really get the deformation area to the northwest of the H7 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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