Hoth Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Some outside shots. Second one is the driveway. You can see the mailbox on the left side near the road, notice the 9' lightpost in the middle. First one is the front of the house. That drift on the smaller roof line is at least 7' high. Wow. Roof rake, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dotb Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow. Roof rake, dude. Heh, believe it or not, that's a pitched roof, about 45 degrees, just like the main roof. It'll come down eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 i think, for us back here, you did the best analysis and even though it wasnt what we wanted to hear you were 100 pct spot on with calling gfs bluff on the high qpf amts nw with convective feedback issues...i respect you for that. The problem is and always has been I speak in general and everyone thinks I'm taking their snow away. I don't really care that much about MBY. I don't think I ever said what I thought would fall ANYWHERE in SNE aside of MBY. I gave water equivalents that's it. Will be light on that in some areas. Not defending that other than saying I did definitely speak of lolli's and banding above that and that's what happened. I was down on this storm from the standpoint that I didn't see it as the epic house breaking tempest the media AND NOAA were proclaiming. There are few reports of major coastal damage, few reports of structural damage caused by wind, almost no power outages. Out of 1.2 million in the blizzard zone 1,000 have no power. Far cry from what was plastered all over the media etc. There were no hurricane gusts. If we hadn't made the regulations so that a major storm is now a blizzard, this wouldn't have come close to meeting old blizzard standards, period. The two bands of snow that moved through here were the two heaviest of my season. I ended up being light here by maybe 2" - those that know me know I was saying 4-8" here NOAA came in at 10.5" and I got 12" on 20 to 1 which is never something I would assume in this location. Much of the animus comes from me definitively saying the GFS was a failure and would cave. There are probably some here that think the earlier GFS runs were right because of what fell, not realizing it's solution was totally wrong. As Scott and Will have pointed out no model did well. I will post the NOAA snowfall maps. I think many missed the 4am update that chopped totals just before that band ramped way up. Everyone struggled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Most probably missed this progression. Not bagging on them, just pointing it out. AT 437 am NOAA really cut back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 By 8am they had gone back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 20 minutes later it was clear the band really meant business and they had their final out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It was atrocious. People are acting like a widespread 1.5" of QPF fell, it pretty much fell within the .4 to .7/.8 with probably 10-15% of all stations falling above that. A couple of stations got jackpotted in those bands. But that's a possibility with every/any storm and was stated multiple times even by me in this case. Nobody mentions that winds busted way low. Or that the storm busted horribly low north and also west versus many model runs. Here's the WE, not all data is checked yet and some are clearly contaminated high and will be QC'd. Ratios appear to have been widespread 20 to 1, and pushing 30 to 1 in some areas. Actually based on the official reports it looks like 25/30 to 1 was pretty widespread. Based on the 100 or so stations on this grid about 5 went over .8 and 1 is clearly bogus (Falmouth). Models were probably 25% light on QPF on average in EMA, but I don't see the epic bust unless we're expecting models to nail narrow, intense fast moving bands. A lot of those will climb a bit more with the snow that fell after 6-8am. I think most of interior Mass will be around 0.65-0.85" with more in coastal NE MA. Newburyport was pushing 1.00" at this AM's ob. I just added everything up...the final tally here was 13.2" snow and 0.56" liquid. The local cocorahs sites were.. Date Time Station Number Station Name Total Precip in. New Snow in. Total Snow in. State County 2/15/2015 7:45 AM NH-BK-1 Tilton Northfield 3.3 NE 0.53 9.8 30.0 NH Belknap 2/15/2015 5:21 AM NH-MR-45 Northfield 2.8 E 0.75 9.5 32.0 NH Merrimack BK-1 looks more realistic given my liquid and accounting for compaction. I've tossed the 0.75"...there's no way we had that much liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The 16.2" snowfall brings Boston's February total to 58.5". That is just over 1.5 standard deviations above the old monthly record of 43.3" from January 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'll add that this is where 6hr measuring/clearing starts to make it difficult to compare storms to ones from decades past. If I measured this at 7-8am and never cleared I would've had about 10" too. 35:1 can only stand on its feet for so long before becoming cripple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 2"Cheers. Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Winds def picking up here, now. Roaring overhead. Neighbor is roof raking and the snow is blowing past my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Pups loving it Puppy 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ripping wind now. Great drifting. Snow flying off the roof tops. This gives me new respect for the hardiness of Puritans. Even with all our modern equipment, hundreds of plows, borrowed assets from other states etc., this is proving a monumental challenge. Can't even imagine what privation this event 298 years ago must have caused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'll add that this is where 6hr measuring/clearing starts to make it difficult to compare storms to ones from decades past. If I measured this at 7-8am and never cleared I would've had about 10" too. 35:1 can only stand on its feet for so long before becoming cripple. When did logan and say Worcester go to the 6 hour rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not sure what it is here, but more times than not, we either get low end of forecast total or under. Very rare to be fist pumping a larger than forecast storm. Congrats SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wind chill is -5F here now Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Epic here in Billerica. Absolutely epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 128 has a 30+ car wreck due to blowing and drifting snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wind chill is -5F here now Meh Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 128 has a 30+ car wreck due to blowing and drifting snow..95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Lots of stations in SE MA likely have 1" QPF or a bit greater. You don't have TSSN from arctic fluff. Ratios were good but TSSN means you have the juice too. Mid-levels delievered...the models that were touting 0.15-0.20 QPF in 6 hour periods for this morning were garbage. The whole underlying theme of those models was that we'd have a "meh" deformation band in the morning that snows OK for a couple hours and that's it. Far from the ground truth of extremely intense snow bands and 3-4" per hour rates. That was about as dynamic as you'll see for a 4-6 hour period this morning outside of a much warmer storm like in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Cheers. Same here. Got me beat. 1.5" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wind chill is -5F here now Meh LMAO hilarious, should be new FB profile pic We can retire mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 128 has a 30+ car wreck due to blowing and drifting snow.. Ask a trooper.... due to driving too fast for the conditions. Some injuries non appear to be life threatening which is positive. 95? Yes. http://www.wcvb.com/news/multicar-pileup-closes-route-128-in-waltham/31285076 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm going with 18" as my final. This was a better "Blizzard" than the last one for me. That one has a denser snow so it did not drift as much. The winds in that were higher too. This was came in 2 distinct yet powerful punches. The first was a bit more dense of a snow that fell with little wind but efficiently. The 2nd batch was ridiculous. Convective in nature, but powdery, dropping 2-4"/hr. Winds have not been ridiculous but have been gusting over 30mph since 8am. This is as deep as I've seen the snow here in my almost 11 years. Stupified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Mid-levels delievered...the models that were touting 0.15-0.20 QPF in 6 hour periods for this morning were garbage. The whole underlying theme of those models was that we'd have a "meh" deformation band in the morning that snows OK for a couple hours and that's it. Far from the ground truth of extremely intense snow bands and 3-4" per hour rates. That was about as dynamic as you'll see for a 4-6 hour period this morning outside of a much warmer storm like in the spring. Serious question...when you look at a model like the RGEM which had .7 to 1" about 20-30 miles too far east where it clearly had the best mid level support sliding just off the beaches.... was it just bad placement? It's not like that snow existed in both places..the banding was over EMA, not 20 miles off the beach...but it did have it. Others..not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Winds howling a bit now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Got me beat. 1.5" here.Sucks, but we all have a bunch of snow now. Plenty for snowmobiling, skiing, whatever. Don't really need anymore snow for awhile. Just bragging rights as this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Mid-levels delievered...the models that were touting 0.15-0.20 QPF in 6 hour periods for this morning were garbage. The whole underlying theme of those models was that we'd have a "meh" deformation band in the morning that snows OK for a couple hours and that's it. Far from the ground truth of extremely intense snow bands and 3-4" per hour rates. That was about as dynamic as you'll see for a 4-6 hour period this morning outside of a much warmer storm like in the spring. The Jim Cantore thundersnow clips from this morning are hilarious... man he gets pumped, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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