mahk_webstah Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Maybe the takeaway is to look at what each model is sticking with and give it credibility if supported by overall synoptic look and thus not to fully lean on any model ie those who stuck to their guns re mid levels. This is a pattern for the tried and test pattern recognition synoptic forecssters not the model monkeys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Reports I have seen are that routes 2 and 495 have snow across them from the blowing Wachusett is almost empty due to winds and people having trouble getting there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The only other bust this bad and close in was a modeled norlun i think from a year or two back that never materialized over SW Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah. The euro is best at H5 and for identifying threats in that d4-5 range, but my god has it struggled with cyclogenesis this winter. Maybe it's a clipper/miller B issue or it too is just too hires for its own good. I think it is related to resolution. These systems aren't the typical consolidated low bombing they've had split centers for a short time during maturation. Euro Keyed on the spin that ran over eastern ma and tucked that over your heads and went to town. Reality is that was eventually going to get pulled back down into the consolidating low which it did. Gfs keyed too much on the left low so they both stunk for the same reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amc Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 My fathers highway supervisor for our town, he just came home, they're all finished. Only about an inch maybe 2. Not much wind either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Fwiw I heard elsewhere that at 5h the euro scored the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The only other bust this bad and close in was a modeled norlun i think from a year or two back that never materialized over SW Maine How much did you end up with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Depth is like 3 feet.... Maybe more... Who the hell knows at this point Some spots have over 5 feet.... Just incredible.... Never thought I would see this here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nws measured 10.5 just south of me I had about 12" here, would have busted a little light even if I had stuck with 5-10. Don't take this as gospel because I just used my bong drink thing from Cozumel to do the core but it was about 20-1 here. I came up with .6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Eyeballing 12-14 inches of new snow in Holliston, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How much did you end up with? 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Brookline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Brookline. That's just silly, a couple more and you can swing from the wires Zeus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sounds like the Scott (messenger hate is pretty strong this a.m.). I went back many pages to see any of his comments, but looks like they're all deleted, so all I get is half of a conversation. Many folks get emotional over this stuff (see Jebman in mid-Atlantic), but I suppose if there were personal attacks, the delete button must be used. Anyway, looking forward to seeing some sweet pics from around the region. lol at Cantore too. I didn't delete anything. My strongest comments were that the Gfs was awful and totally wrong. Is that even up for debate at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 BOS officially came in at 16.2"....up to 95.7" now on the season. Leon (96.3") is finished being only 0.7" ahead. Probably only retains the #2 spot for another 48 hours or so. BOS for the month of February is at 58.5"....60"+ for the month is a foregone conclusion as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 The only other bust this bad and close in was a modeled norlun i think from a year or two back that never materialized over SW Maine Sorry, Jeff. I feel for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nailing events is one thing. But he came across like the science was settled. That's not science. That's pedantic scientism. And that's what a lot take issue with. wtf are you talking about? The biggest dispute was over the Gfs. How'd that 1.25" qpf work out for northwest Areas and way higher than .5 way west and north etc. I said eastern areas excluding northeast Ma looked good for .4 to .7 or .8 , I don't believe I ever ONCE discussed specifically totals for any other area than my own where I figured 4-8 or 5-10 and a NOAA employee reported a final of 10.5. Yeah I blew it on the blizzard by new standards. There were no massive power outages, no hurricane gusts anywhere or even close, limited to no structural damage. These were all things being touted all over the media and even by the NWS. Even the most enthusiastic on snow totals butchered the predictions on wind and devastation associated with it. We got two high ratio bands of snow. I don't think the water equivalent reports will show widespread 1.5 or abything crazy like that. It'll probably be mostly .3 to about .9 west to east with Harvey reporting some 30-1 ratios. But show me where I have a forecast for your area or anyone else's? My biggest stake in the ground was that the wettest Gfs runs were horrible with regards to how far west and north they got because it spun up a spurious feature which it finally dropped at 0z last night. Sorry if you misunderstood. I'll refund your money....oh wait this is for fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wind has really gone nuts here over the last 20 minutes. Insane cloud of blowing snow zipping down Meredith Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sorry, Jeff. I feel for you. Not much we can do Mike, Not like i can make it snow, It snows where it wants to, No one is going to feel bad as i am at 97.70" for the season.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 BOS officially came in at 16.2"....up to 95.7" now on the season. Leon (96.3") is finished being only 0.7" ahead. Probably only retains the #2 spot for another 48 hours or so. BOS for the month of February is at 58.5"....60"+ for the month is a foregone conclusion as well. Will, where's Worcester at right now after this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wind has really gone nuts here over the last 20 minutes. Insane cloud of blowing snow zipping down Meredith Bay. I was just about to post that the wind's are a bit of a let-down. We've had better with prior frontal passages this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think it is related to resolution. These systems aren't the typical consolidated low bombing they've had split centers for a short time during maturation. Euro Keyed on the spin that ran over eastern ma and tucked that over your heads and went to town. Reality is that was eventually going to get pulled back down into the consolidating low which it did. Gfs keyed too much on the left low so they both stunk for the same reason. Tippy kept bringing up the NAVGEM yesterday. Others have said the GGEM did alright. I'll admit I only gave them a cursory glance. Maybe there's something to be said about higher res not equating to a better forecast. A lot of those non-hydrostatic 4km models go nuts with banding and convection. It seems like they overdo the mesoscale phenomena too much which adversely affects the synoptic scale. Maybe there's a happy medium resolution out there that gives more focus on the synoptic and basic hydrostatic/quasi geostrophic thinking, yet still shows a hint of mesoscale features without running wild with them. I'm not a modeling expert though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 BOS officially came in at 16.2"....up to 95.7" now on the season. Leon (96.3") is finished being only 0.7" ahead. Probably only retains the #2 spot for another 48 hours or so. BOS for the month of February is at 58.5"....60"+ for the month is a foregone conclusion as well. Nothing's a guarantee until it's fallen and measured. If we get 2" from the glancing blow in a couple days, then yeah, you're right. But it could just as easily be 0.5" or less... we won't know until we know. Leon is on the ropes now, that's for sure. And the king -- '95-'96 -- is doable. Ironic that this seems doable in a year where on January 20th, the 8" or so needed to break the all time record at BOS would've been a nice season-salvaging storm just to get on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 There's the looneyburg total sticking out again. gotta question the spotter there last night they reported 7" while all surrounding towns recorded between 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not much we can do Mike, Not like i can make it snow, It snows where it wants to, No one is going to feel bad as i am at 97.70" for the season.........lol Man, you're 30" ahead of me. I'm hoping we get at least one system that rips western New England. It will probably come at the end of March after I've switched into spring-mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nice to see a south coast of MA jack in this one...was about time. You guys were due. Thanks. I know this is cliche but that band between 5-8am this morning delivered some of the heaviest rates I've witnessed in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think it was Messenger's tone more than his actual forecast, IMO, that turned people the wrong way. But yes, time to lay off. He's been a great asset many times. DSnow the tone doesn't matter. I have tried it all sorts of different ways over the years. If I was less determined in what I said I'd be no different than many other that are non committal and obtuse. I'd also later be accused of being wishy washy. I was adamant the Gfs was totally wrong on those wet runs. It did cave and we didn't see anywhere near what it predicted N&W. I never said squat about anyone else's snow totals go back and look in SNE. Not once. At all. I did throw out liquid equivalents and I don't think they'll be terrible given ratios the TV people are reporting. I didn't get it right but by chance did you see NOAA change their forecasts 4 times in 4 hours this am? I ended up right in the WE range I thought here. That band to my west probably pumped out close to .9 or 1. I'd love to see miltons WE. Whatever on the blizzard criteria, blew that. But this wasn't the house and electric grid smashing tempest many were proclaiming. Nice major winter storm, more snow than thought but I'll go to the mat in saying the Gfs was dead wrong on those runs which ironically were among the few maps I posted the entire storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Cleared about 8" avg of snow. I'm sure the total was higher as the radar looked good for hours after I measured 7" at 1am. Winds are stiff, but a few notches below damaging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I submitted 11.0" as my final to BOX. Someone else in town has been submitting as well and we match up Wonder who? I took a bunch of depths. Range was 24" to 34". Avg around 29" Not bad but have done better. This stuff compacts Not bad I got 12" up on the backside of Wachusett. Took some total OTG measurements as well of course with my snowshoes on. AVG about 32" some 40" spots some 32" amazing out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS did good with that little weenie jackpot it was giving this area run after run ...TOLLAND COUNTY... STAFFORDVILLE 9.0 1240 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTERTOLLAND 8.5 114 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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