Semper911 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Lay off of messenger guys. Jesus, grow up. Seriously. I love the guy, and this place wouldn't be the same without him. He brings more science to the table than 95% of all the members of this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Btv wrf shat the bed as well. Snow winding down...light now. Guesstimated about 16 inches..may make it to 17. I'll be waiting with bated breath to catch the BOS final. Can leon be kicked to the curb today or do we wait? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yukon C, really only 7" from both parts? I had 5" last night 11" total. Temps barely moving. 11.4F I only had 2.5...maybe 3" from round 1 last night. I'm literally on the Petersham line, so just far enough west to miss out on some of the meat of the banding. What part of Hubbardston do you live in ( north, south, etc)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 All about the bass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 They are just jealous of his superior amateur met skills. He nails em' a lot more than he misses, he probably has drifts half way up his house right now. Nailing events is one thing. But he came across like the science was settled. That's not science. That's pedantic scientism. And that's what a lot take issue with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 never changed my 10-14" that I remember 17" s- 16.8/15 Looks like the sun wants to pop soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 2" FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Harv backed from over 1', to 8-12, as I did. Yup, he did When BOX AFD comes out and says 15/00Z SOUNDINGS ARE IMPRESSIVE. AS FAR WEST AS PITTSBURGH AND CINCINNATI...NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER. ALSO SEEING SIGNS OF A TROPOPAUSE FOLD...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROPOPAUSE AS LOW AS 700 MB OR SO. WE HAVE CONCERNS THE OFFSHORE STORM WILL INTENSIFY EVEN MORE EXPLOSIVELY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT LATER TODAY. LATEST RUNS OF THE HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE TRYING TO BEAR THIS OUT. SOME...LIKE THE HRRR AND REGIONAL CANADIAN...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE. AT THIS POINT...WE CONTINUE TO HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS BAND WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF when I saw that I realized we were in NOW Cast mode, if there ever was one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Aint that the truth. Strengthening mid-levels rarely ever fail to deliver. If you think about it though, what do models do best? They do best with placement of upper level features (and filters down to mid-levels)...what they the worst at? Probably surface features with an emphasis on QPF and low level temperature boundaries/advection. So when you have the rare times where the two are at great odds with eachother...whcih are you more likely to go with? The variable the models do best at or the variable they perform the worst at? What bothers me is that they had the inflow, strong convergence etc and strengthening mid levels etc..but just extremely poor on the QPF output given those features. I mean the waters east of BOS have plenty of juice so they should see that. The RGEM was dangerously close though so that was sort of a red flag. RPM too. Part of this was the extreme low level forcing. The low levels below 900 started really ramping up from the east bringing in the high octane. There is the instability. But, aside from the GFS which did blink, they shat the bed with depicting that too. I wonder if it also boils down to this being extremely anomalous and models will just do weird stuff. Over emphasis on WAA stuff amid an extremely cold mid level low, while neglecting the forcing away from the 850 LLJ in the Gulf of Maine. The GFS did bad though further west, so busts all around. NYC winds aren't happening either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Even BOX lowered totals before taking them back up. Qpf is a siren even to mets I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sitting at the kitchen table looking out slider. 40" or so on it. Snow sticking to door now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Even BOX lowered totals before taking them back up. Qpf is a siren even to mets I guess. Tough to ignore when they all do it, but there are the flags. Even in this day and age..busts happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Has Harv mastered every event? Certainly one of the best here. He mastered in 1978. He's just the Man. Hoping to get my 12" for my 4th Foot storm in 3 weeks. Boston has a chance at 4 15" storms in 3 weeks. They have never EVER had 4 12" Storms in a Season. Let alone 3 in 4 Months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sun trying to peak out... Still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What bothers me is that they had the inflow, strong convergence etc and strengthening mid levels etc..but just extremely poor on the QPF output given those features. I mean the waters east of BOS have plenty of juice so they should see that. The RGEM was dangerously close though so that was sort of a red flag. RPM too. Part of this was the extreme low level forcing. The low levels below 900 started really ramping up from the east bringing in the high octane. There is the instability. But, aside from the GFS which did blink, they shat the bed with depicting that too. I wonder if it also boils down to this being extremely anomalous and models will just do weird stuff. Over emphasis on WAA stuff amid an extremely cold mid level low, while neglecting the forcing away from the 850 LLJ in the Gulf of Maine. The GFS did bad though further west, so busts all around. NYC winds aren't happening either. Yeah I think focusing all on the low level stuff seems one theory...and probably the best one. The extreme low heights of the ULL perhaps were fooling the models into thinking the moisture wouldn't advect westward up that slope? I dunno...you think they should handle that fine though. But maybe they were just trying to squeeze out all the moisture before it had a chance to advect west...printing out QPF blobs over Georges Bank and the Gulf of Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ski areas must be pretty envious of Boston metro area. Blue hills FTW. The power line trail should be sweet today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 All about the bass. OMG, First time I heard this was at a Tiki Bar Karaoke few weeks back...Nothing like watching 70-80yr olds bustin moves. P$ssin my pants laughin. I laid-out a twerk or two myself and the ladies were swooning at my feet 0.00 accumulation here! Glad I stuck with 12+ ORH east. Any word on the highest gusts so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just measured 16.5" on the deck...sheltered from the wind, so it was perfectly flat. Still steady moderate...maybe another 1-2"? What can you even say????? Depth easily over 40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 15.5 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm looking at what's out there compared with last night and making an educated guess of about 12 new. Would bring us into the 16 + range. But with so much on the ground and ripping wind hard to tell. What did you get on winter hill, ORH weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Messenger had a tone. He gets what is coming. No need to be arrogant. I like him, but enough was enough. +1. It was purposeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Been huffing subsidense most of the morning with a nice band draped in the valley and heavy stuff to the east. About 4" total I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just a beautiful band.Pure retrograde.http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BOX-N0Q-1-200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 My wife sent me this. Holy **** what an awesome awesome pic, my god send that out nationwide. I picture him in 30 years 100K posts later posting that every winter in the memories thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah I think focusing all on the low level stuff seems one theory...and probably the best one. The extreme low heights of the ULL perhaps were fooling the models into thinking the moisture wouldn't advect westward up that slope? I dunno...you think they should handle that fine though. But maybe they were just trying to squeeze out all the moisture before it had a chance to advect west...printing out QPF blobs over Georges Bank and the Gulf of Maine It was freaking saturated right past 500mb too...lol. So weird. I wish I thought about it more..but wasn't sure if models saw something by actually lowering QPF when the event nears. Well good lesson here, just glad I didn't buy the .5" on the EC. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm looking at what's out there compared with last night and making an educated guess of about 12 new. Would bring us into the 16 + range. But with so much on the ground and ripping wind hard to tell. What did you get on winter hill, ORH weather? I think thats an over estimate, drifting up where you are?...it looks impressive, but its closer to 10-11" total. Unless maybe you actually got more there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 15.5" s- Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah I think focusing all on the low level stuff seems one theory...and probably the best one. The extreme low heights of the ULL perhaps were fooling the models into thinking the moisture wouldn't advect westward up that slope? I dunno...you think they should handle that fine though. But maybe they were just trying to squeeze out all the moisture before it had a chance to advect west...printing out QPF blobs over Georges Bank and the Gulf of Maine I learned a valuable lesson in this event. When there exists a discontinuity btwn mid levels and QPF, go mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You have been an absolute idiot on more than one occasion of late. Including that absolutely moronic FB status the other night that you eventually deleted. I understand you are starting to make a name for yourself, but stop acting like you're entitled to treating people however you see fit.....that all catches up to you sooner or later. Wow Ray I am impressed, Karma is a mf er. Yea man we joke but Scotts good peeps and probably one of the best non pros I know and I am sure he is absolutely loving this positive bust. Oh how I pray 3 stations come in with confirmed blizzard, hes going to buy me a new Davis if that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Snow's stopped here--at least for the time being. Time to head out. 6.4/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.