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The Valentine's Day Massacre Obs--A snow job or does it only blow?


moneypitmike

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I think I need a couple hours of sleep. The wind is slowly beginning to pick up.

16.7F -SN OCNL SN

12.6" new snow

1.1" past hour

Intensity has let up a bit and compaction is starting to do its dirty work. We'll see what those bands pivoting north deliver. Canterbury RWIS is still cranking the M1/4SM.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0317 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MA/SRN NH/NERN CT/RI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 150917Z - 151515Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED

ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA -- AS A SNOW BAND NOW OVER THE NRN MA/SRN

NH VICINITY TRANSLATES SWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY

SNOW OVER NERN MA AND ADJACENT SRN NH ATTM...WITHIN A WARM

ADVECTION/DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC

/H85-H7/ LOW NOW MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS BAND IS

FAIRLY WELL-DEPICTED BY HIGH-RES MODELS AND SREF PROBABILISTIC

DATA...EACH OF WHICH PROJECT THAT THIS BAND WILL NOT REMAIN IN PLACE

BUT TRANSLATE SWD ACROSS MA AND EVENTUALLY INTO PARTS OF CT AND RI

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS LACK OF A MORE STATIONARY HEAVY

SNOW EVENT ALSO MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE/TRANSITORY NATURE

OF THE SYSTEM ALOFT -- WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD AND THEN

NNEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND

AFTERNOON.

BASED ON THESE FACTORS...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THE HEAVIEST

PORTION OF THE SNOW BAND WILL REMAIN OVER A GIVEN AREA FOR MORE THAN

BUT 2-3 HOURS...THUS LIMITING OVERALL SNOWFALL IN ANY ONE LOCALE.

HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HIGH SNOWFALL RATES...4-8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL

LIKELY FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

..GOSS/MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 02/15/2015

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

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