TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hoping for 2-4" in the am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Threw in the towel for CT just now, glad I cut totals this afternoon as the WAA overperforming will allow me to at least salvage the low end of the forecast. After reviewing the latest short range guidance and looking at the radar, I'm starting to sniff a bust in regards to tomorrow morning. The short range hourly HRRR continues to suggest little to no snowfall for the western two thirds of the state or so, with an additional inch or two possible in eastern areas(Essentially, the 4-8" zone on our most recent map). To make matters worse as far as for the verification of the forecast, it's the furthest west of the guidance, with the majority of the lower resolution guidance showing a miss entirely. The inverted trough looks to hit areas well to our SW and basically miss us entirely(as we figured it would, but it would have added a wild card to the forecast), and as a result, between the CCB missing east and the IVT missing SW, it seems that much of the state will be in a hole between those two areas of precipitation and as a result see little to no additional snow. As a result, the revised forecast is: Nothing to up to an inch of additional snow for areas west of I91 A coating to two inches of additional snow for areas east of I91, locally up to three inches in far eastern areas depending on banding. The one wildcard is the development of potentially strong convective bands which could bring a narrow area of very heavy snowfall, but as of now, it appears that we will see those form to the NE of the state and as a result we should be clear from that. Winds will still be a factor tomorrow however as the wind comes from the passage of the arctic front and upper level low and not so much the storm it's self. Dangerous wind chills are therefore still expected for most of tomorrow, and blowing snow will still combine with cold temps to make a downright wintry scene out there. Keep your reports coming, and thank you for reading SCW! So what's new? How is this a forecast, when it's been known for hours before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 OT Bianca on channel 5 now is smoking silly hot. 4.8" new here in Melrose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like about 3" so far up here in Thornton. Looks to be light to moderate snow. 12.4/10. Warmest of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just hasn't been our winter but we are around average or just above, depending on local. Just goes to show you how awesome its been for the folks to our E and NE. not sure this one works out for many outside of S-Central NJ....strange storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I get over 6" now, need less than 6" in the death band tomorrow, and everyone is saying that has Very little chance of happening. I thought I was getting 3" at best in this part so. Why Can't I get 6" tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow, lots of stars visible right now. 14/10. -SN starting back up as ALB radar starts to come alive again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I get over 6" now, need less than 6" in the death band tomorrow, and everyone is saying that has Very little chance of happening. I thought I was getting 3" at best in this part so. Why Can't I get 6" tomorrow? I think the further west you go the less chance of getting under a death band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 not sure this one works out for many outside of S-Central NJ....strange storm... Strange model consensus. Cold storms are always a crap shoot it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Measured 6.75 pretty evenly across several spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Strange model consensus. Cold storms are always a crap shoot it seems. That's a Really good point actually. That pile at the bottom is 5'6" to 6' High. Record for that section. CN Mountain Loft. KCNM. My Valentine was The SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ogunquit ME: 11.5", just consistent 2"/hour for past 3 hours. 2 feet or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Big snow growth now. Up to 11F. 6hr core sample incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That's a Really good point actually. image.jpg image.jpg image.jpg That pile at the bottom is 5'6" to 6' High. Record for that section. CN Mountain Loft. KCNM. My Valentine was The SNOW. Nice pics man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Big snow growth now. Up to 11F. 6hr core sample incoming. Sneaky Steady totals for you, radar looks almost best of night for your area. 10" potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ogunquit ME: 11.5", just consistent 2"/hour for past 3 hours. 2 feet or bust I am camped out in Portsmouth NH and it is dumping here. I came out from dinner in a restaurant that was in a cellar and didn't have a window view to see what was happening outside.... Boy was I shocked when I opened the door to leave.. Gushing with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Steady light snow now not on radar. Very fine flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 6hr core 4.4" new 0.28" w.e. That brings the storm total up to 5.1"/0.32". 11.4F +SN 1.4" past hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Heartening discussion from BOX regarding possible faster deepening. Interesting radar trends too. Echoes south of ACK are moving more northerly and that band that came through earlier appears to be moving back a little towards NE Mass. Definitely bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 lower level returns from Cape Ann SE to just off Truro backing in now http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=New_England-rad-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 lower level returns from Cape Ann SE to just off Truro backing in now http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=New_England-rad-12 I love it when you talk dirty to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 5.5" from round one. Another 3-6" tomorrow between 4am-10am should do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Plymouth has had 5" thus far, so that 3-6" forecast by messenger for his BY has no prayer of being even in the ballpark after we get that 2nd wave in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Heartening discussion from BOX regarding possible faster deepening. Interesting radar trends too. Echoes south of ACK are moving more northerly and that band that came through earlier appears to be moving back a little towards NE Mass. Definitely bears watching. The Box disco 15/00Z SOUNDINGS ARE IMPRESSIVE. AS FAR WEST AS PITTSBURGH AND CINCINNATI...NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER. ALSO SEEING SIGNS OF A TROPOPAUSE FOLD...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROPOPAUSE AS LOW AS 700 MB OR SO. WE HAVE CONCERNS THE OFFSHORE STORM WILL INTENSIFY EVEN MORE EXPLOSIVELY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LATEST RUNS OF THE HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE TRYING TO BEAR THIS OUT. SOME...LIKE THE HRRR AND REGIONAL CANADIAN...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE. AT THIS POINT...HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS BAND WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF. WHERE IT DOES PERSIST FOR A TIME...WILL LIKELY SEE LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS IS A COMPLICATING THE TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW ONCE THE WINDS PICK UP...GIVING SOME THOUGHT TO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD WARNING FARTHER WEST. WILL NEED A LITTLE MORE TIME TO EVALUATE THAT. DEF INTERESTING DISCUSSION-Seems they are in AWE of the energy with the Rodney Dangerfield of 500DM ULL's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow just took a measurement 8"-8.25" here in Newburyport. Over achieving big time thus far. I just picked up 4" in the last 2 hours. Despite how the radar looks, we are still getting moderate to almost heavy snow right now. OE going on pretty well. I can only hope tomorrow overperforms like this. We might even have a shot at 15-20" now! Great stuff, cant wait to see the winds in the AM. I'm out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Heartening discussion from BOX regarding possible faster deepening. Interesting radar trends too. Echoes south of ACK are moving more northerly and that band that came through earlier appears to be moving back a little towards NE Mass. Definitely bears watching.Man, good catch. Nowcast this biatch....gonna be a 2-4"/hr band nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Man, good catch. Nowcast this biatch....gonna be a 2-4"/hr band nearby. Yup. And now they've expanded blizz warnings further west. They see something noteworthy, no doubt about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Take your pictures of the Fresh Light "Heavy Snow" NOW and get to bed! 6 Hours of sleep and back here. At Ease Chaps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Man, good catch. Nowcast this biatch....gonna be a 2-4"/hr band nearby. Looks like that banned that just pulled through up here, is starting to get some ocean fetch and wrapping back around. If that hangs on for the reinforcements to come in, we are going to kill it up this way. The radar is very deceiving. I am right on the water so that helps with this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Any of you fellows know much about tropopause folds. I know Cweat went by that once and the Cape experienced one 12/9/05, but don't know much about the phenomena. Is it just a sign of rapid intensification? High wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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