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The Valentine's Day Massacre Obs--A snow job or does it only blow?


moneypitmike

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Had dinner ON the ocean at Hampton Beach (Rons Landing...so good!) tonight.  Absolute DUMPING on way home.  Worst driving in years....tail lights 100% invisible beyond 25 yards.

 

Came home to 5-6" at around 9:00...dumping even harder now.

 

Lots of doom and gloom for others but things are looking fantastic right now.  Looking forward to wind in the morning!

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Still heavy snow here

 

Here too.  Hasn't let up a bit in the past two+ hours.  Starting to hear the wind picking up in the trees, and you can hear the trees "popping" a bit too.  I have to imagine these trees are nothing but giant frozen sapsicles at this point, and it wouldn't surprise me the winds tomorrow lay down a lot of them. 

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3.5" new from today.  Nothing special, but nice snow.  Stars are out and clear skies like nothing happened.

 

I haven't checked NWS or anything on here for a few hours so I am not even sure what if anything is supposed to happen here tomorrow.

 

Sounds like coastal areas are doing well.  Nice for them.

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Threw in the towel for CT just now, glad I cut totals this afternoon as the WAA overperforming will allow me to at least salvage the low end of the forecast.

 

After reviewing the latest short range guidance and looking at the radar, I'm starting to sniff a bust in regards to tomorrow morning. The short range hourly HRRR continues to suggest little to no snowfall for the western two thirds of the state or so, with an additional inch or two possible in eastern areas(Essentially, the 4-8" zone on our most recent map). To make matters worse as far as for the verification of the forecast, it's the furthest west of the guidance, with the majority of the lower resolution guidance showing a miss entirely. The inverted trough looks to hit areas well to our SW and basically miss us entirely(as we figured it would, but it would have added a wild card to the forecast), and as a result, between the CCB missing east and the IVT missing SW, it seems that much of the state will be in a hole between those two areas of precipitation and as a result see little to no additional snow. As a result, the revised forecast is:

 
Nothing to up to an inch of additional snow for areas west of I91
A coating to two inches of additional snow for areas east of I91, locally up to three inches in far eastern areas depending on banding.
 
The one wildcard is the development of potentially strong convective bands which could bring a narrow area of very heavy snowfall, but as of now, it appears that we will see those form to the NE of the state and as a result we should be clear from that. Winds will still be a factor tomorrow however as the wind comes from the passage of the arctic front and upper level low and not so much the storm it's self. Dangerous wind chills are therefore still expected for most of tomorrow, and blowing snow will still combine with cold temps to make a downright wintry scene out there.
 
Keep your reports coming, and thank you for reading SCW!
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